If You Think This Is Bad, Wait Until Next Friday's Arctic Blast

Blue nation: This morning's National Weather Service
home page map was a study in blue, filled with
vast areas of wind chill and freeze alerts.

I usually don't like to talk much about forecasts more than five days down the road, but this time I do want to put out an alert that the frigid Arctic cold wave we're having looks like it will reach its crescendo next Friday and Saturday in New England.

It looks very grim. Could be one of the most brutally cold days in my lifetime. Considering I'm 55, that's saying something.

Oh, I know, it might not be as bad as current predictionss are indicating now.  Forecasts change. But some indications for next Friday are shivering my timbers, let me tell ya.

First let's get through the latest Arctic blast, which came in last night. It seemed "warm" in Burlington, Vermont for awhile Saturday afternoon.  The temperature peaked at a lovely, balmy 11 degrees above zero in the afternoon, the hottest it's been since Tuesday evening.

That, of course, didn't last long. It was back to the deep freeze last night, and that will continue through New Year's Eve. Looking at the national weather map, the United States is now Blue Nation, and I'm not talking about politics.

At least half of the U.S. is colored in hues of blue on the National Weather Service home page - filed with wind chill warnings and advisories, and in the south, hard freeze warnings.

I haven't seen such a vast cold wave in the United States in quite a few years.

Can I stop right here and indulge in another rant about people on the roads? During this cold snap, we here in Vermont and a lot of other places in the vast cold zone have been getting little bouts of light snow. It's too cold for salt to work.  The snow and ice stays on the highways. The wind does appears to blow some of the snow off the roads, so they're perfect, right?

Um, no. Car tires have been compacting some of this light snow into black ice. The roads don't look too bad, but they're icy. I saw a lot of cars off Interstate 89 Friday evening and a few more Saturday. Motorists are going 75 mph. They don't get it that there's black ice, which is hard to see. Slow down, morons!!    

This cartoon by George Danby in the Bangor (Maine)
Daily News this week pretty much sums things up. 

At the bottom of this post, you'll see some videos from Michigan of people going too fast on the highways during lake effect snow squalls. People gotta learn to slow down. More people are going to be killed because people are too stupid to slow down on ice and low visibility.

Rant over. Moving on. As expected, it's damn cold today, and will be tonight for New Year's Eve festivities. We're still looking at wind chills in the teens and 20s below zero come midnight in Vermont, so 2018 is starting out by giving us the cold shoulder, to put it gently.

It'll stay cold New Year's Day, then we get into a "mild" spell Tuesday and Wednesday, when high temperatures will rise all the way up into the teens to around 20. Break out those swimsuits, baby!

Then we get into the trouble I talked about at the start of this blog post. An ocean storm will get going in the Bahamas and track northward, well off the East Coast. It will intensify rapidly, and become a vast, intense super strong wind machine.

It's still hard to say how far off the coast this monster will track. At this point it looks far enough away to spare the eastern United States from a lot of snow but it still bears watching.

Once this huge storm approaches the waters off New England, it will tend to curl a little bit toward the northwest, while still strengthening. That could cause a blizzard in eastern Maine if it comes close enough, and a little snow in Vermont. And it will probably cause an epic, dangerous storm in the Canadian Maritimes.

But that's not worries me so much about this storm. All of the Northeast, certainly including Vermont, will be in this huge storm's huge wind field. That means by Friday, I expect that north winds could be gusting in the 30 to 40 mph range, maybe more than that in the higher elevations.

Worse, this storm is going to grab a chunk of Arctic air from Canada and bring it down on us. Friday's chunk of Artic air looks like it might be even colder than the icebox we've got over us today .

The combination of wind and extreme cold looks awful. If this comes to fruition, I expect lots of burst and frozen water pipes as the cold winds push the Arctic air through every nook and cranny of our houses and buildings.

Low temperatures Friday and possibly Saturday night across Vermont and surrounding areas look like they could be in the 20 to 35 below range, and that's not including the wind chill.

Having lived in Vermont all my life so far, I think I've only experienced such conditions two or three times before

Of course, I'm still hoping current computer forecasting models are blowing this all out of proportion and it won't be so bad. That's still certainly a possibility. Maybe by Thursday I'll be doing my best Emily Litella impression: ("Never mind!") But it's still something to watch.

If you're looking for good news, it looks like by next Sunday, the deep chill will start to moderate. There will be more Arctic fronts after next Sunday, it looks like, but those outbreaks of cold air don't look anything nearly as bad as what we're experiencing today, and what we're likely to experience next Friday.

Here's those road crash videos. The first is the most dramatic. The couple in the car, which slid off a Michigan highway, narrate as cars and trucks keep smashing into one another. At least three plow into the couple's car. I'm amazed by how calm the two remain. The second video shows more of the same type of thing.

Let's be careful out there!



And here's  tow truck driver's overview of the scene in Michigan:

That Expected Blizzard Tuesday Was Bad; The Tornadoes Were Worse

A big tornado churns through western Alabama
Tuesday. Photo from television station
WBRC in Birmingham, Alabama. 

As advertised yesterday morning, the weather in much of the nation took a nasty, violent turn, with destructive tornadoes in the South, and record setting snows in the central Plains.

The worst storm was a long lasting supercell and large tornado that swept across the Mississippi and Alabama borders Tuesday afternoon

Amazingly and fortunately, this storm killed nobody, and left only some relatively minor injuries. But the tornado damaged or destroyed many houses and buildings.

There's video of it at the bottom of this post.

The worst hit town was a village called Sapps, damaging most of the houses in town, AL.com reported. One home was picked up and dropped down on the edge of a Sapps street. A prison was badly damaged, wth its windows blown out. A church was also blown apart.

Other serious damage along the large tornado's path occured in Carrollton, Reform and Fayette, Alabama, AL.com reported.

Radar image shows big torando
in western Alabama (left-most circle)
with three potential tornadoes
developing behind it Tuesday. 

One truly frightening radar image showed the intense tornado with debris lofted high in the air, along with three clear signs of rotation - possible tornadoes - lined up in a row behind the big twister, ready to hit the same towns that had just been trashed.

I hadn't seen anything like that before, though Simon Brewer, the storm chaser and meteorologist featured on the Weather Channel show Storm Riders told me via Twitter that this kind of thing happens from time to time during tornado outbreaks.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 12 reports of tornadoes Tuesday, but many of these might be duplicates, or multiple reports of that same, big long lasting tornado that trashed those communities in western Alabama and eastern Mississippi.

Today, there's a risk of severe storms and possible a tornado in a stripe from southeastern Virginia to the Florida panhandle, but I doubt the storms will be as extreme or widespread as yesterday.

Meanwhile, the Plains are digging out from yesterday's blizzard. The snow is winding down out there, but roads are still atrocious.

Several sections of Interstate highway in Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota closed yesterday because of zero visibility, but they're reopening today.

Several cities had record snowfalls for the date. Sioux City, Iowa logged 12.4 inches, setting a record for the date. It was also the seventh largest snowstorm in that city's history.

Norfolk, Nebraska had 14.2 inches of snow, shattering the record for the date, which had been 3.0 inches in 1936.

Sioux Falls, South Dakota had 4.2 inches of snow, besting the record of three inches for the date set way back in 1883.

Flood watches are still scattered in quite a few areas from the Florida panhandle to New Jersey. In the Mid-Atlantic states and parts of the Appalachians, rain, high temperatures and melting snow from the big late January blizzard could easily contribute to flooding today.

The Groundhog could have been forgiven
yesterday if he didn't even bother coming out
of his burrow to check whether he'd see his shadow. 

Northern New England, especially northern and eastern Vermont, the northern half of New Hampshire and the northwestern half of Maine are facing a rough commute this morning, as the storm is spreading snow, sleet and freezing rain into those areas.

Precipitation will change to rain there, and some parts of New England and elsewhere in the Northeast could have record high temperatures this afternoon.

Today will be the tenth day in a row with above freezing temperatures in Burlington, Vermont. That's definitely a very unusually long stretch of warmth for late January and early February.

But it will turn more wintry in parts of the country that aren't so chilly now. Next week, cold air will plunge all the way to the Gulf Coast.

Plus, there's a strong possibility of a pretty hefty nor'easter in the Northeast toward Tuesday. Details on whether, or even if, this storm will form, but there is potential for a snowstorm somewhere in the Middle Atlantic States and most of New England.

Stay tuned!!

Here's a video of the big Alabama tornado and its aftermath by Kelley Williamson, with Severe Studios:

Sorry, Springtime Fans, Winter Redux To Overtake Eastern U.S. As Official Spring Arrives

It'll be awhile before we see this
in northern New England. Unfortunately for
spring season lovers, winter redux
is coming for the second half of March.  n

Here where I live in northern Vermont, the hints of spring we've had the past couple of days is history.

As of 1 p.m. today, it was in the mid and upper 20s, and northwest winds gusting to over 30 mph has the wind chill down to about 10 degrees.  

That's still better than the subzero cold of February and very early March, I suppose.  But it's much worse than the sunshine and 50 degree readings of Tuesday and Wednesday.

Now, there's less snow on the ground, there's bare spots here and there, and we had  really decent maple sap run for you syrup aficianodos.

Spring really did hit coast to coast this week. Wednesday, the only state in the nation experiencing cooler than normal temperatures was Texas, due to clouds and rain there. Heck, they needed the rain so that's OK.

The springlike weather is still in full force in most of the country, New England excepted.

After a hard winter, though, you have to expect a few hiccups on the road to spring. One HUGE hiccup is coming.

The current cold weather in New England will ease up Saturday and Sunday, with near normal temperatures with rain in southern New England and rain mixing with or changing to wet snow in the north.

Sugar snow, you have to expect that.

Meanwhile, out in the Plains, it's practically summer, at least temporarily. My relatives in the southeastern South Dakota city of Yankton today are basking in record high temperatures that could flirt with 80 degrees.  Record highs in the 70s are going to be widespread today in the Dakotas, Iowa, and Nebraska.

The only problem with that is it's also very dry and windy in those parts. The prairie grasses and shrubs and dry and brown from the winter, so there's an extremely high risk of fires today. 

The very dry, warm conditions in the upper Plains are expected to last into Monday, so the risk of fires will be high. After temperatures "cooling" to levels that are still 20 degrees above normal tomorow and Saturday, more record highs are likely Sunday.

But even there, the forces of Canadian weather are gathering, and it's going to turn cold again in the upper Plains and Midwest later next week.

The overall weather pattern is in the process of shifting from the pretty springlike weather of this week right back to that extreme and brutal configuration we saw from late January through early March.

That means it's going to turn wicked cold, especially in the Northeast, so don't get your spring groove on just yet.

The first blast comes in Tuesday and lasts a couple days. New England temperatures will be about normal for January (Highs in the 20s north, 30s south, lows 5 to 15)

The temperature might ease up a little after that, but it looks like repeated shots of Arctic air will come down into the Midwest and Northeast hrough at least the end of March.

Between the blasts, there might be some thawing as it will be late March, after all. But other days will feel just like midwinter. Sorry.

On the bright side, at least it won't be nearly as cold as February was. It's almost impossible to have subzero temperatures in late March, except in places like Minnesota, the upper Pennisula of Michigan, New York's Adirondacks and in much of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

Those places might briefly go below zero during the upcoming cold waves. Oh well.

The upcoming pattern is also potentially snowy and stormy in the Northeast as well. It's hard to pick out this far in advance how any storms will play out and how big they will get, but it seems damn certain New England isn't done with the snow yet.

This makes me worried about spring flooding, with Maine under a particular threat.

So far, the deep snows in eastern New England have been melting gradually. There's still a lot of it, and still a definite flood threat later this spring, but at least some of the snow is now gone after yesterday's 60 degree weather, so the amount of potential water for a flood has gone down somewhat.

Not so in the eastern half of Maine. There was some thawing there, but a lot of snow remains on the ground there.

The snow is still 40 inches deep in parts of Maine, and in much of the state, the amount of water locked up in the snow is the equivalent of six to nine inches of rain. 

The upcoming cold will delay the slow melt we expect this time of year, and will add snow to what's already on the ground.

If April turns warm and wet, Maine could be in for catastrophic flooding.

In western New England, in places like Vermont, the snow cover and water equivalent is more or less normal for this time of year. Some snow melted, but there's still quite a bit in the mid and high elevations. River ice is thick in Vermont, so ice jam flooding could be a real problem in April.

Plus, if a lot of snow falls during the upcoming two-week (at least!) cold wave, and then it turns hot and wet in April, we here in Vermont could face some unwanted flooding.

First, though, we'll have to endure the winter redux to close out March.

Confirmation: Yep, East Coast Very Cold, West Very Warm In February

Giant icicles on snowbound Boston buildings
last week after one of the coldest Februaries
on record.  

If you took all the temperature readings across the United States this past February and put them all in a blender, you'd find the average temperature in the nation for the month was right around normal.

Of course we all know that's not true.

In its latest report this week, NOAA's National Climate Data Center State of the Climate review shows that the Northeast had very close to a record cold February, where a good chunk of the West Coast was at record warmth levels.

Let's just say the nation's weather really, REALLY went to extremes during February. Each state in New England, plus New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio, had their second coldest February on record.

New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine also had the coldest average daily high temperature of any February on record.

Meanwhile, California, Washington, Utah and Arizona had their hottest Februaries on record.

The continental United States only comprises roughly two percent of the world's surface, so the nation's extremes in February don't say much about how the world's temperature compared to normal during February.

Global temperatures were certainly warmer than the long term average, but we won't know by how much until detailed analysis comes out later this month.

Giant ice blocsk washed ashore on Cape Cod,
Massachusetts after one of the coldest Februaries
on record. Photo via Twitter, @Dapixara.  

March seems to be picking up where February left off in the United States. The month started with record cold across much of the eastern third of the country and some record warmth in the West.

This week, things have gotten mild almost everywhere, with near normal temperatures in New England, and warmer than normal conditions across the rest of the nation. More record highs will probably fall in the next couple of days in the western two thirds of the United States.

Then, starting next week, it's back to the old tricks. From about March 20 until at least the end of the month, it looks like much, much, MUCH below normal temperatures are due for the eastern half of the United States and much warmer than normal out west.

The focus of this pattern is the understandable and widespread frustration with the never ending winter in the Northeastern United States.

But the place to really worry about in this persistent eastern cold/western warmth arrangement is California.

Bizarrely, there was no snow on February 19 at the
8,000-foot elevation in California's Yosemite
National Park. Photo by Elizabeth Christie.  

The state has managed to get some rain this winter, but not nearly as much as usual under a persistent ridge of high pressure. Worse, the warmth has meant that whenever storms did arrive, they tended to drop rain, not snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

That's really bad, because California depends on water from melting snow in the Sierra in the spring and summer to satisfy its water needs.  The snow supplies about a third of California's water needs, says National Geographic.

The snowpack is near record low levels because of the winter warmth. Early March snowpack was just 19 percent of normal, and a tiny 5 percent of normal at one site east of Sacramento, National Geographic said. 

California's wet season usually sputters to a close in April, so the region is running out of time to accumulate more rain and snow.  Not much rain or snow is in the forecast for the next few weeks in California.

It's looking extremely ominous out there.

Yep, It Was Just About The Coldest March On Record In Vermont

You knew March was cold, and you were right.

No April Fool. This is a perennial bed between my deck
and driveway in a photo taken this morning, April 1 in
St. Albans, Vermont. Often, at this time of year
a few tentative daffodil leaves are starting to
poke up here. Not this year.  

The news out of St. Johnsbury, Vermont this morning is they had the coldest March on record, in data that goes back 120 years.

The mean temperature for the month in St. Johnsbury was 18.9 degrees, decisively colder than the previous record chilly March, in 1900.

In Burlington, Vermont, it wasn't quite a record. The mean temperature in March, 2014 there was 22.1 degrees, which was almost nine degrees colder than normal.

This makes the month that just ended the fourth coldest March on record in Burlington.

I'm sure we'll get reports later today of other cities reporting their coldest March on record in 2014, or at least something close

In northern New England, temperatures will continue below normal for the first week of April, but not nearly as far below normal as it was in March.  At least it doesn't look like we're on pace for a record cold April.

And a thaw has set it, the maple sap is running, and the next storm, due Friday night, looks as if it will be mostly rain, at least in the valleys.

We'll take any improvement we can get.

Snowstorm In Vermont Likely More Of A Blockbuster Than Originally Thought

The afternoon updates are in for this big snowstorm and in Vermont especially, National Weather Service forecasts for the amount of snow that will come down have gone up quite a bit.

Heavy snow falls on a Queens train station
earlier today. It could easily snow just
as hard in Vermont, surrounding states
later tonight and Friday morning.  

This increased snow expectations are most noticeable in the northern Champlain Valley.

Where forecasts this morning predicted a mid-sized 4 to 8 inch snowstorm in that area, the predictions are now for a good 10 to 16 inch dump.

The winter weather advisory out in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York has been upgraded to a winter storm warning because four to eight inches are expected in that area.

Back in Vermont, there is the possibility that up to two feet could accumulate on some of the ridgelines in the central and southern Green Mountains. Valley locations elsewhere in Vermont are expecting 8 to 14 inches, at or just slightly above this morning's projections.

I've been watching the radar patterns with this storm and they're a little weird. An initial heavy, but narrowing band of snow is working its way north from southern Vermont and central New York and that will probably cause a fairly decent burst of snow this evening.

There's a huge dry slot, an intrusion of cool, dry air into the middle of the storm, which is typical of these types of nor'easters. That dry slot looks to me like it might work its way into northern New England for a time tonight, and the snow could taper off for awhile.

If the dry slot does make it into Vermont, or nearby, enough warm-ish air might accompany it to cause a little sleet or freezing drizzle, especially east of the Green Mountains, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

If that mix does arrive, it won't amount to much at all and quickly change back to snow.

But it seems like the core of the storm will come up the coast, and set up another band of heavy snow on its northwestern flank between midnight tonight and into Friday morning. That seems to be where forecaster thing we'll get most of this big powder dump.

The NWS meteorologists in South Burlington think that heavy snow band will set up over western Vermont, the Champlain Valley and parts of northeastern New York.  Snow could come down at a rate of up to 3 inches per hour for a time, which really is incredible.

Uncertainty still hangs in the air. I and everybody else is excited about this heavier storm forecast, but if the heavy snow band doesn't really set up, or sets up in an unexpected place, the predictions for a heavy Vermont/New York/New Hampshire snowstorm could turn into a bust.

I just want to throw that out there in case we're surprised by a lack of snow Friday morning.

Of course, if the forecast is right, and I'm not doubting it, the trip to work could be hellish in northeastern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire Friday morning with deep snow, heavy falling snow and winds to 30 mph blowing it all around.

The snow should gradually dwindle down to snow showers during the day Friday. Continued gusty winds will continue the blowing and drifting. At least it won't be that cold as temperatures will remain in the 20s.

Believe it or not, another nor'easter looks to get going Saturday. But relax, it won't amount to much in western New England.  It'll form off the mid-Atlantic coast, but not really get cranking until it gets past New England.

That means Vermont and eastern New York can expect only a couple of inches of snow at most from that, with maybe more as you get toward New Hampshire and Maine.

The only bad news for snow lovers: It could rain toward the end of next week.