Cristobal: Size Matters

Cristobal is expected to eventually cross the western Great Lakes
and go into Canada later this week. 

Tropical Storm Cristobal, which came ashore in Louisiana Sunday proves that "weak" tropical systems are anything but.  

Top winds with this thing were 50 mph, which doesn't sound like that big of a deal.  However, what Cristobal lacked in wind was more than made up for in size.

Cristobal didn't have a classic tropical storm shape while it was in the Gulf of Mexico.  In satellite photos, it looked more like a giant comma, like you would see in a strong nor'easter in coastal New England during the winter.

Tropical storms and hurricanes usually have a more circular, symetrical shape.

The tropical storm was large in size, which meant it could cause havoc over a wide area.  That's why you saw on the news tornadoes swirling through Orlando, Florida. It's also why parts of Florida got up to a foot of rain.

Size mattered in an even more important way.  Cristobal's relatively modest winds covered a wide are of the Gulf, so it was able to push a lot of water ahead of it.

This created a nasty storm surge, made worse by the timing. The surge came just as high tide rolled in.  Coastal communities like Grand Isle, Louisiana and Waveland, Mississippi were inundated as a result .

MORE CRISTOBAL TROUBLE

Cristobal, now a tropical depression as of early this Monday morning, will move generally north and end up in Wisconsin by early Wednesday morning. It will take a swath of heavy rain with it. Flood watches are up along the projected path of Cristobal in Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa and Wisconsin.

The storm will be gradually becoming a non-tropical system as it moves northward through the Midwest. If it still has some tropical characteristics by the time it hits Wisconsin, which is quite possible, that will be something.

The storm is actually expected to strengthen as it approaches the Great Lakes as it gradually merges with another storm.  It could cause some damaging wind gusts midweek, and create the lowest air pressures on record for June in that area.

VERMONT EFFECTS

We won't have any direct impacts from Cristobal here in Vermont, but it sure is helping to make the weather forecast challenging.

The Cristobal storminess in the Midwest and a strong, but sharp and narrow upper level ridge further east puts Vermont in a weird spot.  A warm front out ahead of everything will try to move in, but there's disagreement in the computer models as to whether it will make it all the way through here.

High and mid level cloudiness will accompany this feature over Vermont Tuesday, and a pretty big temperature gradient will be setting up over or near Vermont.  We could end up with  a cool, cloudy 65 degree day up in Newport and a muggy 85 degree afternoon down in Bennington.  That's just one possibility, but the temperature contrast could set up further west, or further east. Who knows?

Wednesday's weather is a toss up. It all depends on where that warm front goes, and if it makes it north of us. It could either be humid and way up in the 80s to near 90 in a spot or two, or just in the 70s with more moderate humidity.

Amid all this uncertainty, the remains of Cristobal, and the cold front it will eventually drag through here at the end of the week, won't give us a lot of rain.  Which is too bad. We still need it, despite the showers we had over the weekend.

Here's a drone view of storm surge flooding from Cristobal in Grand Isle, Louisiana:

Another Weather Off The Rails Weekend (Not In Vermont, Though)

From 9 News:  A severe thunderstorm associated with a derecho
knocked this billboard down on a Denver building Saturday. 

As we forecasted yesterday morning, weather is definitely going off the rails in different parts of the nation this weekend, and that trend will continue for the next few days.

We here in Vermont will pretty much be an island of tranquility in the weather department, but that won't be the case elsewhere.

The most remarkable weather event Saturday was a long lasting derecho that got going near the Arizona/Utah border and raced north and northeastward during the day through the central and eastern Rocky Mountains and on into the western Dakotas.

Derechos are relatively rare events and almost unheard of in the Intermountain West. Yes, I know we just had a derecho in Pennsylvania and New Jersey last week, but they still don't happen all that often.

On average derechos happen once every year or every other year in much of the Midwest and South. On the East Coast, you average one every four years or so.  In the Intermountain West, there have maybe been a handful over the past several decades.

The one that swept through yesterday was a doozy, too, judging by wind reports. Just a sampling:

110 mph near Copper Mountain, Colorado
94 mph Butte County, South Dakota
92 mph near Cactus Plateau, South Dakota
85 mph, Four Corners, Wyoming

There were numerous reports of gusts above 75 mph, including in metro areas like Denver.

Meanwhile, Florida got in on the action, thanks to Tropical Storm Cristobal.  Most of the heavy weather with this system was east of its center.  This mass of storms spun off at several tornadoes in Florida, including one that passed through Orlando.

The Orlando Sentinel reported that at least 50 residents of apartment blocks and houses were displaced near the city's downtown because of tornado damage.

MORE ROUGH WEATHER COMING

Tropical Storm Cristobal will splash ashore around Louisiana later today. Storm surges and flooding is already happening in Louisiana and Mississippi, and that will continue the rest of the day.

However, the bigger drama from Cristobal will come over the next few days, as its remnants head north through the Arkansas, Missouri and into Wisconsin by Wednesday.

It won't really be a tropical storm by the time it hits the Great Lakes, but it will manage to intensify. It'll form into a mean storm for this time of year over or near Lake Superior.  Expect reports of wind damage, battering waves and erosion on the lakes and maybe some flash flooding.

VERMONT CALM

All this weather action will pretty much miss Vermont. The fact that Cristobol will be going by to our west will give us a squirt of warm to hot, and windy weather midweek, but nothing extreme.  Not a lot of rain is in the forecast either.  A cold front associated with the remnants of Cristobol might bring a few showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night and Thursday.

Cristobal Not The Only Threat: Wind, Tornadoes, Fire Even Snow Out West

WPTZ-TV's web cam captured this lightning strike at around 2:30
this morning over Plattsburgh, N.Y. Thunderstorms roamed through
northern New York and northern Vermont early this morning, bringing
much needed rain.  Hat tip to WPTZ meteorologist Ben
Frechette for posting this one. 

The weather headlines this weekend are dominated by   which is forecast to make landfall late Sunday night in or near Louisiana.

Storm surges three feet deep or more are expected in much of coastal Louisiana, and heavy rains will add to flooding woes.  The wind won't really be the problem. The water will be the issue.

As bad as that all sounds, it's the Rocky Mountain states and the western Plains that have even more action this weekend.

They'll have it all. Depending on where you are, wildfires are possible, so are strong winds not associated with thunderstorms, blowing dust, thunderstorms, possible tornadoes and even a snowstorm in a spot or two.

A strong cold front associated with a powerful upper level low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest are causing all this havoc.

Ahead of this storminess, strong south winds over the New Mexico and the High Plains of Colorado will gust to 65 mph.  This could cause some tree and power line damage. It could tip over high profile vehicles on highways.

Worse, it could make any wild or range fires in New Mexico and Colorado spread really quickly and become dangerous.

Further north and east, when you get up into South Dakota, the threat today will be tornadoes and dangerous supercell thunderstorms that will throw down huge hailstones and wicked straight line winds in some spots.

The highest chances of tornadoes and strong thunderstorm winds is over central South Dakota today.  The higher chances of damaging hail are more toward the Black Hills, where a hail storm the other day caused a lot of damage in and around Rapid City, South Dakota. 

The threat for severe storms and tornadoes continues tomorrow for northern South Dakota and the eastern half of North Dakota.

Heading back to Colorado and Utah, the problem up in the mountains today is not too little rain, like in the Plains east of Denver, but too much.  The strong cold front out there will set off some thunderstorms with heavy rain.

That'll trigger flash flooding, especially in a lot of those narrow slot canyons in Utah.

Up in Idaho, they're actually bracing for a snowstorm.  The National Weather Service in Pocatello said accumulating snows could reach all the way down to valley floors in towns like Stanley.  Some areas can expect several inches of snow.

All this is an extremely busy weather pattern for early June.  Severe storms and tornadoes are relatively common, as are flash floods this time of year. But this variety of weather, from winter weather, to tropical storms, to high winds, fires and those tornadoes, is pretty wild for what is generally a relatively mellow time of year in the weather department.

Up here in Vermont, we're missing out on the extremes, which is OK.  Thunderstorms blustered through northern parts of the state early this morning. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans captured  0.55 inches of much-needed rain from the early morning storms. Burlington only got 0.04 inches as the storms mostly missed them.

Scattered showers and storms will continue today and this evening, off an on, as a series of weather fronts and boundaries move through.  Any thunderstorms that get going today should not be severe, but a few might be gusty. Eastern and southern New England have a slightly better chance of a few strong to severe storms today.

After a cool Sunday and Monday, it will warm up to summertime levels again by mid-week.  I'm not sure it will hit 90 again. It did manage to get that warm in Burlington Friday.  We've already had three days this year that have gotten to 90, which is at least half our normal alotment for the entire summer.

On average, most 90 degree days in Burlington hit in July and August.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Lurks. Eventual Gulf Coast Hit?

The projected path of Tropical Storm Cristobal from the
National Hurricane Center. This forecast will surely be
adjusted in the coming days as more data comes in

As was pretty much expected, Tropical Storm Cristobal formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday.  It is the third tropical storm of the season in the Atlantic basin, the earliest on record for a "C" storm.

As we know, the names of each season's tropical storms and hurricanes go in alphabetical order.  Last year, we didn't have a storm that started with a "C" until August.

By this morning, the National Hurricane Center said Cristobal had strengthened to the point where it had top winds of 60 mph. It was just making landfall early this morning on the southeastern Mexican coast.

Cristobal is moving very slowly, so it will dump huge amounts of rain in the areas it hits later today. No doubt there will be catastrophic flooding as the storm is forecast to dump 20 inches or so of rain on some areas.

As noted yesterday, parts of El Salvadore and Guatamala were hit with torrential rains from Tropical Storm Amanda this past weekend.  Additional rainfall from Cristobal will raise rainfall totals in parts of those two countries to 35 inches since last Saturday.

That will make already horrific flooding even worse.

For persepective, 35 inches of rain is very roughly how much precipitation we get in Vermont during the course of a whole year.

As is often the case, what happens to Cristobal in the coming days is pretty uncertain.  It's expected to  linger near the shore of the Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days.  If the storm center stays very close to the shore, it will weaken slowly.  If it moves inland more, it will weaken faster.

That either/or scenario might have implications for the United States Gulf Coast.  Steering currents are expected to eventually draw Cristobal northward, which would make it aim toward perhaps Louisiana late Sunday night or Monday.

If Cristobal weakens a lot over the next couple of days, that could mean maybe a weaker, less impactful storm on the U.S. Gulf Coast. If Cristobal maintains its shape better between now and Thurday, it will have more ability to strenghten further as it heads north through the Gulf of Mexico over the upcoming weekend.

Under that stronger scenario, Cristobal could actually be a hurricane once it reaches the Gulf Coast. If it is a hurricane at U.S. landfall, it would be the earliest in the year on record a hurricane hit the United States. The current record holder is Hurricane Alma, which struck Florida on June 9, 1966.

People in and around Louisiana ought to keep an eye on Cristobal, as it could really cause some flooding problems if it gets or keeps its act together.

Tropical Trouble And A Cold New England

A big area of ugly weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico might
become Tropical Storm Cristobal

They told us this year would be an incredibly active Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season ad it's already off to a busy start.

True, the first tropical systems of the season have not been super strong, but that's typical.

The official Atlantic hurricane season didn't begin until yesterday, but there have been two tropical storms already, Arthur and Bertha, both of which had relatively minor effects on the U.S. Southeast coast during May.

There's now another tropical system bubbling in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It's a tropical depression, which means it has a real circulation like a tropical storm, though it's too weak to be considered one.

If this thing does become a tropical storm, they'll name it Cristobal.  If wannabe Cristobal does become a tropical storm by June 5, it will be the earliest on record to have three tropical storms in the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center says the forecast for wannabe Cristobal is uncertain, as it's trapped in a broader circulation in the Bay of Campeche.  It might even dissipate in favor of a new storm, or wannabe Cristobal could just smack into land and dissipate down ther.e

Or, it could be drawn north toward the United States Gulf Coast. If that happens, it's possible the storm could feed off very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and approach hurricane strength, or even possible become a hurricane. Which would be odd for early June. That type of thing normally waits until later in the summer.

Few, if any forecasters expect this thing to get super strong, but that doesn't really matter. Tropical storms, especially slow movers like wannabe Cristobal, can dump torrential rains and cause some pretty extreme flooding.

On the other side of Central America, on the Pacific side, a relative weak tropical storm named Amanda just caused immense flooding and landslides in El Salvador and Guatemala that killed at least 17 people.

The remnants of Amanda are one ingredient that is helping form wannabe Cristobal, by the way.

NEW ENGLAND CHILL

I guess opposites attract in northern New England.

After last week's record heat, record chill descended on Maine, especially in the north. Houlton, Maine this morning got down to 26 degrees, which is that town's all-time record low for the month of June. It was 91 degrees in Houlton on May 27.

Caribou, Maine got to 31 degrees, which was good enough to break a record for the date, but not the entire month.

Clouds sort of kept temperatures up overnight in Vermont last night. However, some gardens in the Green Mountain State were wrecked by frosts yesterday. For instance, it was 29 degrees in Gallup Mills, way up in the Northeast Kingdom, 30 degrees in Island Pond and 31 degrees in South Lincoln.

It'll keep gradually warming up through the rest of the week.






El Salvador and Guatemalaen

Tropical Storm Cristobal Officially Forms, U.S. Hit Getting Unlikely

As of Sunday morning, most of the computer
models take Tropical Storm Cristobal away
from the United States.  

As expected, an area of stormy weather has strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal, which was packing 45 mph sustained winds early this Sunday morning.  

It was moving slowly northward through the Bahamas and is forecast to keep strengthening as it's being fed by very warm ocean water.

Tropical storms and hurricanes LOVE very warm water. That's a key ingredient in making them go stronger.

However, even hot water won't do any good if there are strong, shifting winds above and near the system.  That's called wind shear

In Cristobal's case, there's not enough wind shear to block it from getting stronger. It'll probably become a hurricane in the next two or three days. That's the bad news.

The good news, at least for the United States, is it's beginning to look less likely that Cristobal will hit the coast. There's still some uncertainty, so it's not time to totally relax yet. But most of the computer forecast models take Cristobal more toward the northeast away from the United States.

A little trough of low pressure is moving off the East Coast, and that will probably help nudge Cristobal away from the U.S., says the National Hurricane Center.

Almost A Sure Bet That Tropical Storm WILL Form

As of Saturday morning, most computer forecasting
models likely take what is to become Tropical
Storm Cristobal into Florida the southeastern U.S., or
recurve it out to see to totally miss the U.S.. Stay tuned.  

That area of storminess in the Caribbean that the National Hurricane Center has been watching for the past few days looks like it will turn into a tropical storm, or maybe eventually a hurricane.

As expected, the storminess is getting better organized, but still hadn't formed a real circulation, the kind you get in a true tropical storm. That will likely happen today or tomorrow, says the Hurricane Center.

So where will it hit. First of all, remember the outcry last week over that obnoxious weather enthusiast, named K-Mart (yeah, I know) who started a panic because he was posting images that suggested a major hurricane would wash New Orleans away?

Everybody piled on that guy for being a dufus and trying to cause a false panic, and it's looking like everybody, including The Weather Channel, Weather Underground, the National Hurricane Center and most legitimate forecasters were right to do so.

It appears unlikely this wannabe storm, which would be named Cristobal, will go into the Gulf of Mexico, though a few outlying computer forecasting models still take it there.

Instead, there's an excellent chance it will go through at least part of the Bahamas. I bet they'll issue tropical storm warnings or watches for at least parts of the Bahamas later today or tomorrow.

Then what? Again, nobody's sure. As I noted the other day, forecasts for hurricanes and tropical storms  for several days in advance are pretty unreliable.

However, the best bets are it will either touch the southeastern United States coast, or recurve off to the northeast, going out to sea and not bothering anybody after harassing the Bahamas.

If I were a betting man, I'd say it'll go out to sea and pretty much miss the United States,  but definitely DON'T take my word on that bet. There's more than enough uncertainty in the forecasts to still keep an eye on this sucker.

Nobody is really sure how strong the tropical storm or hurricane will be by the time it gets near the coast, or doesn't get near the coast.

A few notable and destructive past hurricanes, like Betsy in 1965, developed rapidly once they reached the Bahamas like this one will, but many other storms in that region didn't amount to much. Again, just stay tuned and we'll know more in a couple days.

So, if you live in an area between Miami and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, I'd definitely pay attention to forecasts for the wannabe Cristobal, and act accordingly if forecasts indicate it will head toward you.

But I wouldn't head for the hills quite yet.