Matt's Weather Rapport is written by Vermont-based journalist and weather reporter Matt Sutkoski. This blog has a nationwide and worldwide focus, with particular interest in Vermont and the Northeast. Look to Matt's Weather Rapport for expert analysis of weather events, news, the latest on climate change science, fun stuff, and wild photos and videos of big weather events. Also check for my frequent quick weather updates on Twitter, @mattalltradesb
Showing posts with label skiing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label skiing. Show all posts
Thursday, February 28, 2019
Do Winter Hype Forecasts Kill The Ski Industry?
Often, that's a good thing to do. You don't want to be reckless.
To many others, this caution is not always a great thing. According to a recent article in Outside, over-hyped winter weather forecasts are damaging the ski industry. The article is worth the full read.
According to Outside:
"'Negative weather reporting absolutely has an effect on ski area attendance,' says Kelly Pawlak, president of the National Ski Areas Association. It's especially true, she says, for smaller resorts near population centers that rely on the casual, two-or-three times per year skier. 'A negative report on Thursday can scrap a lot of upcoming wekeend ski plans for a resort that relies on day trips.'"
Anything that affects the ski industry here in Vermont is of course important. The Vermont Ski Areas Association said there were nearly 4 million skier days in the Green Mountain State last year, according to VTDigger. A skier day is one person skiing one full day, which a standard way of counting business in the ski industry.
This winter has been good, so the number of recent visitors to Vermont might have gone up. We'll have to wait until the end of the season for statistics.
The Vermont Ski Areas Association says the industry creates about $900 million in direct spending, $120 million in taxes, reports VTDigger. The business supports 12,000 direct jobs and roughly 22,000 indirecrt jobs here.
Which leads us to the constant tension between reasonable warnings to people who would otherwise be careless with winter weather, and the tendency for many media outlets and weather geeks on social media to overhype winter cold and storms.
Ski enthusiasts tell Outside, and by extension the rest of us, that wind chill alerts are overdone. When you hear a forecast for 20 below wind chills, that doesn't mean it will constantly feel that cold out there. The 20 below "real feel" as some call it, come during peak gusts when the sun isn't out.
During these cold weather events, the wind chill is usually warmer than 20 below, plus the sun makes it feel a little warmer out. Plus, winter clothing is better than ever these days, shielding outdoor sports types from some of the worst weather winter can fling at us.
You've heard the saying: "It's not bad weather, it's bad clothing." That logic is, if you get too cold and wet outdoors during the winter, it's because you're not wearing the right clothes.
Ski areas are lobbying meteorologists and other weather types about being careful with their winter forecasts and not being too negative.
Says Outside:
"In December, at one of the summits (to) combat negative winter weather reporting, the North American Snowsports Journalist Association organized an event for a dozen broadcast meteorologists at Stratton Mountain Resort (in Vermont).
The three-day event featured technical climate presentations, but also a discussion, led by a North Face employee, on layering, wind proofing, and other snowsports dress techniques. There was plenty of time for skiing and snowshoeing, too.
The idea, says organizer Adam White, is to make weather journalists more comfortable with winter conditions and to reduce their bias on-air or even Instagram. 'Meteorologists are surprisingly popular on social media,' says White. 'Everyone wants to know about the weather.'"
In my opinion, there's a lot of things going on here. It's always complicated, and you're never going to make everybody happy.
First of all, there is indeed a tendency to overhype things, particularly on social media. Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and other platforms are rife with breathless reports of impending Blizzards of the Century. If you were to believe social media, the Blizzards of the Century come about once every hour.
Wind chill alerts become gloom and doom on social media, telling everyone that if they step outdoors for just one second in these conditions, they will magically turn into an ice cube from which they will never thaw.
The point is eyeballs and clicks. The more hype there is, the more potential clicks and the more money to be made. Social media is certainly not the most ethical place in the world.
On the other hand, Outside magazine caters mostly to people who know what they're doing. An experienced skiing, rider or snowshoe enthusiast, upon learning of a severe wind chill forecast, will just bring along the right gear and they'll be all set and happy.
But there's plenty of stupid people out there, too. You have to hammer home the dangers to people who think nothing of hopping into their cars in a light sweater when it's 30 below for a road trip in a blizzard. Then when they get stuck, they freeze, because they didn't prepare.
Still, the Outside article might prompt me to be a little more nuanced in my reports. Like most weather geeks, I get excited over the drama of storms and weather extremes. I try to keep it in my sneaker, but sometimes my thrill of the weather betrays me.
I can probably try to play to two audiences: One piece of my essays would play to the people who might not be so prepared for the weather, while the other side of me would tell people to go out and play in the extreme weather, if they're smart enough to do it.
God forbid I stop anyone from going out and playing in the snow if they can. Because frankly, the snow and ice that I can see out my window is a total waste unless we find a way to enjoy it.
Saturday, April 21, 2018
Mount Mansfield Reaches 100 Inches Of Snow; Meltdown About To Start
| My snowy commute to work Friday morning. I'm really hoping I don't have to experience this again until November at the earliest. |
Some interesting snow data and dangers from Mount Washington, New Hampshire have come to light.
There's an avalanche warning up there today, including in the ever-popular Tuckerman's Ravine. A bunch of snow over the past few days falling on deep, previous layers has created a high risk of human-induced and naturally caused avalanches
So if you were going to go to Tuckerman's on this nice weekend for backcountry skiing, don't bother. Too dangerous.
By the way, I imagine there's a risk of avalanches to back country skiers atop Mount Mansfield, Vermont, too.
Meteorologist Tim Kelley, of NBC10 and NECN fame in Massachusetts (he's also a noted ski and surf forecaster) noted some interesting stats from the summit of Mount Washington.
Today was the 21st day in a row in which at least a trace of snow fell on Mount Washington. They've had a foot of snow in the past week and 52 inches so far this month.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
All but five of Vermont's ski resorts are closed for the season, but certainly not for a lack of snow, which is usually the case this time of year.
It's just that few people are in the mood to ski this time of year, being late April and all.
The high elevations of Vermont, New York and New Hampshire are still deep in snow after this snowy March and April.
A meltdown is finally going to start over the next few days, and I would assume it will continue almost uninterrupted until it's all gone.
The summit of Mount Mansfield had 100 inches of snow on the ground as of yesterday, the most this winter, and an unusually high amount for late April.
If you want some great late season skiing, go for it. Jay Peak is going to stay open into early May. Why not? They've had 11 inches of snow in the past week and 378 inches (31.5 feet!) for the season.
Killington always is the first or among the first to open for the season and is the last to close in the spring or close to it. They expect to stay open into May as well.
Even some populated areas of Vermont still have plenty of snow on the ground. The high elevation town of Sheffield in the Northeast Kingdom had a snow depth of 18 inches as of yesterday. Granby had a snow depth of 15 inches.
| Still some snow in my yard Friday evening in St. Albans, Vermont making spring gardening a challenge. Remaining snow do disappear today |
As I've been saying for the last few days, we in the valleys looked to be finally pretty much done with snow.
I had to tiptoe around remaining areas of snow in my yard last evening to get some garden work done. But that snow will be completely gone by later today.
It won't be particularly warm today and Sunday (40s and low 50s) for highs, but sunshine both days will feel great after all the clouds we endured.
St. Albans, Vermont today will break its seven consecutive day streak of days with snow or freezing rain. Burlington will end its nine consecutive day streak of measureable precipitation.
With the warming temperatures on the way, either spring skiing or spring gardening look like great options, especially Monday and Tuesday under sunshine and valley high temperatures near 60 degrees. (At the moment, Burlington, Vermont's forecast high on Tuesday is 66 degrees. Ahhhh.)
Also, there's no change to the forecast for the type of precipitation we'll get with the next storm system, which will be here mostly on Wednesday and Thursday. Expect rain, not snow.
Which will be an enjoyable change of pace, huh?
Which will be an enjoyable change of pace, huh?
Thursday, July 6, 2017
They're Still Skiing In The Mountains of California
![]() |
| In this image from the Sacramento Bee, patriotic skiers enjoy the slopes at Squaw Valley, California on July 4. |
In California, the 2016-17 ski season still hasn't entirely ended.
At Squaw Valley, a Sierra Nevada ski areas, people hit the slopes on a sunny July 4th holiday wearing shorts and bathing suits. And enjoying snow that was still pretty deep in spots.
Squaw Valley received 60 feet of snow over the winter, which was among the snowiest on record.
Despite some big heat waves, the snow hasn't entirely disappeared. The Mammoth Mountain ski resort in California and Mount Bachelor in Oregon were also open for skiing on July 4.
There's no word on when any of these ski areas will close for the (brief) summer. I'm sure a few dreamers would like the resorts to stay open until the snow starts falling again in the fall, and then continue on through next winter.
That's not realistic, as the snow is melting fast and there's plenty of summer left to go.
But still: Skiing on the Fourth of July must have really been a trip. Watch the video below for a taste
of it.
Labels:
California,
Fourth of July,
news,
odd,
skiing,
snow
Saturday, February 4, 2017
Enjoy The Powder Vermonters! Back To Schmutz By Midweek
![]() |
| A forecast map for this coming Wednesday shows a strong storm that will create a variety of messy weather during the middle of the week in the Northeast. |
There hasn't been much snow in the valleys to interfere with travel, but the mountains have been getting daily installments of powder for days now.
Jay Peak in far northern Vermont is usually the big winner in these kinds of weather situations and this has been no exception.
The resort reports 54 inches of new snow in the past week. (It's been very light and powdery, so it has packed down some over time.)
Out in the western New York lake effect snow belts, they've got Vermont beat. The town of Redfield, New York has picked up 100 inches of snow this week.
Enjoy the powder this weekend, my friends, because soon we're heading back into the rainy, icy, icky pattern we've seen so much of this winter.
A weak little system will zip by Sunday afternoon and evening, which will deposit a little more snow on the region.
Then, as we begin the work week, a new storm will form in the middle of the country and strengthen rapidly as it heads northeastward into the Great Lakes.
Since the storm will go by to the west of New England, we'll have the same, schmutzy story we've had all winter. It'll start to snow Tuesday, quickly go over to freezing rain and sleet Tuesday night, and then to rain late Tuesday night and Wednesday.
This won't melt all the snow, except in a few lower elevations where the snow cover is quite thin, but it will certainly ruin the powder.
The storm will also bring another familiar feature back: Wind. It'll be a strong storm, so expect gusty winds with this one.
After the storm goes by, it'll turn sharply colder by Thursday and everything will turn to ice again.
The storm is a few days off, so I'm sure there will be tweaks and more details to this forecast. What I've given you now is just a broad brush. That's the best anybody can do at this point.
You never know what surprises await.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Bringing Back The Snow Cover In the Northeast (You're Welcome, Skiers)
An Alberta Clipper was bringing widespread light snow to the Midwest, where winter weather advisories are up for a wide area from Michigan to West Virginia.
The clipper is on the move east, which has prompted other winter weather advisories in the Adirondacks of New York, the northern half of Vermont away from the Champlain Valley and much of New Hampshire.
In those places, expect two to five inches of snow, witih one to three inches in the Champlain Valley.
It's not much, but it's a start. The summit of Mount Mansfield, Vermont only has 11 inches of snow cover at the moment, which is paltry for this time of year. Burlington, Vermont has only had 12.1 inches of snow this winter which is 18.6 inches below what they've should have gotten by this time of year.
The big winners in this Alberta Clipper, other than the snow belt regions near the Great Lakes, is northern and eastern Maine.
The clipper is going to fade as it gets into New England in favor of a nor'easter that will bomb out east of Maine. By "bomb" I mean it will develop very, very fast -- explosively.
The storm will be too far north and east by the time it blossoms to slam most of New England. But it will be close enough to Maine and much of the Maritime provinces of Canada a good 6 to 14 inches of new snow at least.
Meanwhile, the weather and wind direction is ideal for a couple days of pretty strong lake effect snows in western New York. Up to a foot fell yesterday in some areas, and another two feet is likely in spot, like the Tug Hill Plateau not far from Watertown New York.
The air flow will vary in the lake effect zone, so a wider area is going to be affected than is often the case. That's because the shifting winds will draw the snowbands to the northeast for awhile. Often,but not always, the heaviest lake effect snow falls south of Buffalo, New York. Today, with a southwesterly component to the winds, Buffalo itself will get in the act.
Later, by tomorrow, the snow will shift to the suburbs south of Buffalo, and off of Lake Ontario, will shift south of Watertown, New York.
Next, there are signs there might be another fairly substantial storm in the Northeast Saturday. It's still hard to stay whether it's going to be mostly snow or a mix, and where the heaviest precipitation might fall.
But it almost definitely won't be a super warm storm like last weekend, with the possible exception of far southeastern New England.
And it will stay relatively cold, so any snow that falls today through next Sunday will mostly stay on the ground well into next week.
Meanwhile, the western United States, many ski resorts having been getting lots and lots of nice powder so far this winter. It looks like that region will get even more bursts of snow over the next couple of weeks.
I guess it's the Rockies and Sierras turn to get a good winter sports year.
The air flow will vary in the lake effect zone, so a wider area is going to be affected than is often the case. That's because the shifting winds will draw the snowbands to the northeast for awhile. Often,but not always, the heaviest lake effect snow falls south of Buffalo, New York. Today, with a southwesterly component to the winds, Buffalo itself will get in the act.
Later, by tomorrow, the snow will shift to the suburbs south of Buffalo, and off of Lake Ontario, will shift south of Watertown, New York.
Next, there are signs there might be another fairly substantial storm in the Northeast Saturday. It's still hard to stay whether it's going to be mostly snow or a mix, and where the heaviest precipitation might fall.
But it almost definitely won't be a super warm storm like last weekend, with the possible exception of far southeastern New England.
And it will stay relatively cold, so any snow that falls today through next Sunday will mostly stay on the ground well into next week.
Meanwhile, the western United States, many ski resorts having been getting lots and lots of nice powder so far this winter. It looks like that region will get even more bursts of snow over the next couple of weeks.
I guess it's the Rockies and Sierras turn to get a good winter sports year.
Labels:
forecast,
lake effect,
New England,
news,
skiing,
snow
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)



