Two Very Tricky Storms To Hit Vermont, Surrounding Areas

High elevations in Vermont could look this wintry by Saturday morning
It's possible there could be scenes like this even in the
valleys by the middle of next week. 

This is the kind of week that gives meteorologists headaches.

Two strong, but very tough to forecast storms are heading our way, and things are almost guaranteed to not work out exactly how meteorologists think they will.

But they're making the attempt to predict things, and we'll see how they do.

The first storm comes in Friday.  We're in the midst of a cooling trend, and by the time the precipitation is getting ready to start during the day, temperatures will be close to 40 degrees in most areas.

No problem, you'll say. That just means we'll have a cold rain.

Not so fast. As the National Weather Service in South Burlington points out, the precipitation at the start will be falling into dry air. As the air moistens from the precipitation, it will cool. So the rain will change to snow. Or at least could, if it gets cold enough. That seems like almost a sure bet in the mountains, but it's unclear if it will get cold enough in the valleys for snow.

The early betting is the rain will change to snow briefly in the valleys before the air begins to turn just warm enough to switch it back to a cold rain Friday night.

Up a little higher, above 1,000 feet or so, it's even trickier. Temperatures will be near freezing through much of the atmosphere, and that temperature profile will be complex with layers of subfreezing and above-freezing air.

That means there could be a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain above 1,000 feet Friday night. Computer models are trending a bit colder, so it might be more snow than ice up high. Time will tell. The Adirondacks are most likely to stay cold enough for snow.

Another factor that makes this upcoming storm so hard to forecast is that it will have a lot of moving pieces. One storm will get going quickly near the Great Lakes Friday and move into Quebec. A secondary storm looks like it will get going along the coast. And an upper level low pressure system will play round with temperatures several thousand feet above us, so that adds to uncertainty as to what exactly will fall from the sky.

Whatever falls, there will be quite a bit of it. The two storms will force air from different directions to collide near us. When that happens, air rises. When air rises, it wrings out moisture and does a great job of dropping that moisture as precipitation.

Which means we stand a good chance of getting another half inch to inch of rain or melted snow and ice.

The storm will move off toward the Northeast into Canada Saturday leaving us with a windy, cold day with snow showers in the mountains. Lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario might enhance the snow a bit in the Adirondacks and maybe the northern Green Mountains.  I guess the early season skiers will be happy.

One forecast map for next Tuesday. It's uncertain exactly where
that storm along the East Coast will  be, but it
could provide a snowstorm for inland areas of the Northeast.

Sunday looks quiet, but frigid by November standards. It will likely be the first day this winter that fails to get above freezing all day. Normal high temperatures this time of year, by the way, are in the upper 40s.

Next up, another strong storm due Tuesday and Tuesday night. It looks like it will be a coastal storm, or it will track up through central New England. Or, it could even go further west. It's definitely uncertain.

If it goes along the coast, that would bring Vermont the first big snowstorm of the season. Even in the valleys. If it goes more inland, it would be a mix of precipitation and/or another shot of cold rain. Time will tell.

What you've read in this entire post is subject to some adjustments. As I said, it's a complex weather scenario Friday through next week. As more information comes in, forecasts will be adjusted.

Whatever happens, it will stay wintry cold through most of next week. That doesn't mean winter is permanently here. It looks like it will warm up somewhat toward the end of the month. But the first shot of a Vermont winter over the next week looks like a messy doozy.