Breaking: Downtown Nashville Slammed By Overnight Tornado

Widespread damage in Nashville from this
UPDmorning's tornado. 

UPDATE: 

As of 10:30 a.m., Tennessee Emergency Management says the death toll from the tornado or tornadoes is up to 19 people in four counties.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

A tornado went right through the heart of Nashville, Tennessee early this morning, causing widespread destruction and at least nine deaths in and near that city.

It was probably the worst possible scenario for a tornado. A large, strong tornado going through a major metropolitan area in the after-midnight darkness.  People were sound asleep at that hour, and not in a position to hear tornado warnings and take cover.

Dramatic videos are at the bottom of this post

Early reports suggest that the Nashville Fire Department responded to calls regarding at least 40 collapsed buildings, says the Weather Channel.

The tornado apparently touched down a little west of Nashville a little after 12:30 a.m. and continued eastward for about 50 miles to a spot well east of Nashville. That's a long track for a tornado, and dangerous, considering much of its path covered heavily populated areas.

An airport west of town was heavily damaged.  It looks like the tornado went by just barely to the north of the highrises in downtown Nashville. Eastern parts of the city were heavily damaged.

Election workers were checking reports that Super Tuesday polling stations were damaged, too.  In any event, the tornado and its aftermath will surely disrupt voting today in parts of Tennessee.  Polls across Nashville are opening an hour later than scheduled today because of the twister.

Last evening and overnight, there have so far been eight confirmed tornadoes in Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee. Tornado warnings blared through the night in parts of these three states.

The extent of this tornado outbreak caught at least me by surprise.  That's not to suggest there weren't adequate warnings, because there certainly were.  It's just that forecasters often see tornado outbreaks days in advance. This one snuck up to an extent.

By late Sunday, forecasters were predicting the risk of severe storms and perhaps a tornado or two in this region.  By Monday afternoon, it was clear that things were beginning to escalate in the atmosphere, so a tornado watch was wisely issued for the area that eventually was hit.

By evening, rotating supercell thunderstorms were firing up, and the damage started.

Another image of tornado damage in Nashville, via Twitter.

It's not necessarily over. Severe thunderstorms and possibly a few more tornadoes are expected today in a long strip from central Texas, across the Gulf Coast states and on into North Carolina.

Some strong storms, and possibly a tornado or two, are even possible roughly 100 miles in any direction from Washington DC.  This could further disrupt voting in states that are in thick of Super Tuesday today.  

Severe weather and flooding is likely across much of the Deep South on Wednesday and Thursday, too

Back in Nashville, this isn't the city's first go around with a tornado going right through the middle of the city. In April, 1998, an EF3 tornado, with winds of between 156 and 200 mph, swept through the middle of Nashville in a path somewhat similar to this morning's.

In the 1998 storm, 300 buildings in downtown Nashville, including the State Capitol, were damaged. Sadly, the 1998 tornado hit East Nashville particularly hard, just as this morning's twister did.

The Nashville tornadoes reinforce the fact that tornadoes can and do go through the middle of cities.  There's a prevalent myth that tornadoes can't do that, but of course that's not true.

Destructive tornadoes have hit other urban areas, both historically and in recent years.  Damaging twisters went through  downtown Atlanta, Georgia in 2008,  Raleigh, North Carolina in 2011, Oklahoma City in 1999 and even Brooklyn, New York, twice, in 2007 and 2010.  (The video of the 2010 tornado in Park Slope, Brooklyn, is pretty wild).

Just last year, tornadoes swept through heavily developed areas right in Jefferson City, Missouri and Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  It can happen here in New England, too: Witness the big tornado in Springfield, Massachusetts in 2011 and the even bigger one in Worcester, Massachusetts in 1953.

Videos:

The immediate aftermath of the tornado in East Nashville.  I always find the sound of alarms going off in busted buildings after a disaster haunting. Watch and listen:



Meteorologist Henry Rothenberg at NewsChannel 5 in Nashville gave the play by play as the tornado swept past the television station early Tuesday:



It's frightening to watch a tornado go through a big city, even when you can't see it well in the darkness. Sam Shamburger of television station WRKN tracked the tornado as it passed through. You can see it with the power flashes it was causing:



First light this morning reveals some of the destruction:

Dire Situation Unfolding In Northern California Wildfires Today

The Soda Rock Winery in Healdsburg, California in flames during
the Kincade fire this morning. Photo by Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images.

A lot of peoples worst fears are being realized in northern California today.

Wildfires, including the huge Kincade Fire, exploded overnight amid extreme Diablo winds gusting in some places past hurricane force, with relative humidities in the single digits. One wind gust of 91 mph was reported this morning near the Kincade fire.

This is about as extreme weather as you can get in wildfire situations, so it's sadly not surprising that things are falling apart quickly in northern California today.

The reporting from television station WPIX in the Bay Area early this morning is stunning.  Like this snippet of their reporting:

"By 3:30 a.m., a wall of fire ws rapidly approaching Windsor, triggering a frantic call from the Sonoma County Sheriff's department for residents - who had ignored a mandatory evacuation order Saturday, to flee now."

For some people, it might be too late to flee, which means I worry some people will die.  In the hard hit town of Geyserville, WPIX reported that high winds ahead of the fire toppled trees across roads, which would make a fast evacuation pretty much impossible. The WPIX reporter giving us this information was standing in front of the Soda Rock Winery, established in 1869 and during her report, fully engulfed in flames.

Seventy-nine structures, including 31 homes, have been confirmed destroyed, says KPIX. I'm sure that number will rise exponentially.

Evacuations ordered went out for a big chuck of Santa Rosa, Califoria, north of Highway 12 and west of Highway 101. By my reading of maps, that's roughly a quarter of the city of 175,000 people. The evacuations extend westward all the way westward to the Pacific Ocean, which makes me think officials think the out of control fire will race to the beach, too strong for anybody to stop it.

This Santa Rosa situation is particularly painful as that city was ravaged by a wildfire just two years ago that  killed 22 people and destroyed more than 4,600 homes.

People whose houses survived the 2017 Santa Rosa fire, or are just moving into rebuilt ones, are understandably traumatized, the Mercury News reports. 

In all, 90,000 people have been evacuated so far, and you can imagine the logistical nightmare that would entail

The Kincade fire started early this past week and was less than 15 percent contained when the winds whipped up this morning. It was breaking through those containment lines, with flames more than 100 feet tall torching trees on ridgetops.  Hot embers are flying in the wind well in advance of the main fire, causing spot fires that are rapidly growing.

Meanwhile, the fire risk, already high in southern California, will go to an extremely critical risk in some areas near Los Angeles tomorrow.  Extremely critical risk, like the one in northern California today, is the highest level of alert for wildfires. It's like a Category 5 hurricane, as compared to a Category 1 type. In other words, much, much worse.

Videos:

Terrifying video from the Los Angeles Times. Turn up the volume. Just the sound is incredible:


Here's the Soda Rock Winery in flames:

Long, Hellish Weekend in Louisiana, Mississippi Due To Barry

Tropical Storm Barry was looking somewhat more organized
early this morning on satellite imagtes. 

UPDATE 11 a.m.

Tropical storm Barry briefly achieved hurricane status this morning as it moved into Louisiana, as it had top sustained winds of 75 mph.

These strong winds were only in a small area east of the center, and of course probably have already started weakening.

Plus, Barry certainly does not look like a hurricane on satellite photos. At least not a traditional one.

This brief hurricane status basically means nothing in real terms. The expected outcome is the same: Strong, gusty winds in southern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, with the biggest impacts being flooding from the expected rainfall of up to two feet

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Tropical Storm Barry, that lopsided mess of a storm, was slowly inching toward the coast of Louisiana this morning, still destined to bring horrible flooding to Louisiana, Mississippi and perhaps beyond for the next few days.

Barry really is one of those storms that on paper, shouldn't be that big a deal. But, as we've pointed out for days, it's very slow and very wet, even by tropical storm standards, so the flooding still looks to be tremendous.

That flooding will begin today, if it hasn't already. Heavy rain was moving onshore early Saturday. Forecasters still expect an incredible ten to 20 inches of rain in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi.

Storm surges have been causing some coastal inundations at least since Friday morning at the times of high tide. Power is already out in many neighborhoods as winds pick up. Some exposed areas along the shore and up high, like in upper floor condos, have had wind gusts to hurricane force already.

Honestly, there's not much new to report on Tropical Storm Barry this morning. Everybody down in the storm zone is just bracing themselves, hoping for the best, and expecting the worst. Baton Rouge is expecting flooding that could easily rival the epic disaster of 2016.

That was just three years ago, and people haven't really recovered from that yet, and here they are getting hit again

For weather geeks, Tropical Storm Barry looks very weird especially for a tropical storm packing top winds of 70 mph and one that could still become a category 1 hurricane.

The northern part of the storm was still blown apart all day Friday by dry air and strong winds aloft, while the southern half of the storm looked intense to say the least. Tropical storms and hurricanes usually have a roughly circular shape. Barry looks more like a ragged half moon.

The storm on satellite looked a bit more like a traditional tropical system this morning, which tells me there's still some opportunity for strengthening as it nears the coast.

Still, because of the more disorganized northern part of the storm, the worst of Tropical Storm Barry will probably come a few hours after landfall. Heavy rain will come out ahead of it, of course, but it'll get really nasty once Barry is inland later today.

Flooding is obviously the big risk, but storms like Barry often spin off a lot of tornadoes, so that's a risk, too. Early this morning, tornado warnings went up in New Orleans, just a few days after another tornado destroyed a house near the city.

Anyway, Saturday morning is a time to watch and wait and see what Barry has in store this weekend. I'm sure there will be some bad news on this by Sunday.

Clear And Cold, But Ice Jam Flooding Vermont, Northeast Still Big Problem

The Missisquoi River in Swanton, Vermont was re-freezing
Sunday afternoon, adding more ice to an already huge and
destructive ice jam. 

Today has been one of the glorious bluebird winter days here in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeast.  

Granted, it's pretty cold, with high temperatures in my area in northern Vermont only in the single digits. But there's fresh white powder on the ground, the sky is a deep winter blue. Winds are light, all in all, a very nice winter day.

But for some in Vermont and elsewhere in the Northeast, and in parts of Atlantic Canada, is another day of continuing disaster.

Those ice jams that formed with the mega thaw on Friday, are still there, and in some cases getting worse as rivers re-freeze and new ice adds to the jam.

Here in Vermont, the worst of it continues to be around the towns of Johnson and Swanton, where people are still evacuated. New evacuations are possible around Swanton, as the situation, if anything grows worse along the Missisquoi River there.

Route 78 in Swanton, a major truck route between Vermont and New York just south of the Canadian border, remains closed.  Several houses are still evacuated, and nobody has been able to get in to evaluate the extent of the damage.

A huge ice jam along the Missisquoi River in Swanton, Vermont
was diverting water into this building Sunday afternoon.

I was in Swanton this afternoon, and it appears things might be getting worse. The ice jam is stuck in place.

I'm guessing it's in part because the Missisquoi drains into Lake Champlain. Normally, the ice chunks would flow into the lake, but that part of Lake Champlain is frozen. There's nowhere for the ice to go.

Meanwhile, as noted, it's cold. I could see near downtown Swanton new ice forming on the river, floating down stream then becoming stuck in an ever expanding field of ice.

Granted, this new ice isn't thick or strong like some of the big chunks stuck in the main jam, but this new ice is clearly not helping.

Sunday, the new ice was helping to back up water along Foundry Street in Swanton, and some houses there might need to be evacuated.

Johnson, Vermont is still dealing with ice jam and flooding damage, too. Several buildings were damaged. Water inside the local supermarket was at least knee deep.

In addition to Vermont, ice jams and flooding prompted evacuations this weekend in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Massachusetts.

The storm that caused the heavy rain, record warmth and flooding in New England before the Arctic blast arrived Saturday moved into Atlantic Canada.

They had the same problems up there, perhaps even worse than in the states. Heavy rain, record high temperatures and rapid melting of a deep snow pack caused destructive flooding in New Brunswick and Newfoundland.

For most of the region, there's no big huge storms in the near future. That's the way it looks now. Something still might get going later this week. If it does, it would affect eastern New England and, again, the Atlantic Provinces of Canada.

Light snow might affect Vermont, but after the wild weather of the past week, it won't be such a big deal.

California Fires: Today Is A Particularly Dangerous Day

Aerial view of destroyed Santa Rosa, CA cul de sac
Phot by Josh Edelson/Getty Images

The death toll from this week's California wildfires keeps rising and was 35 at last check.

Given the forecast for today and tonight, things might be about to get much worse today.

Gusty winds yesterday continued to spread the flames, but more and more firefighters are pouring into California, and some fires are now at least partially contained.

However in both northern and southern California today and tonight, the weather will turn gruesome again. Hot, dry winds - almost as strong as those that set off the northern California firestorm Sunday night, are forecast to resume today and continue overnight.

Similarly, hot dry Santa Ana winds are forecast for the same period in southern California. This could rapidly spread existing fires, and touch off new, dangerous ones.

At least the focus is on California now, and, as noted, there are now plenty of firefighters deployed in parts of the state.

Even if people heed evacuation orders in a timely fashion, I'm sure more homes and businesses will go up in flames.

In hard hit Santa Rosa, population 175,000, more than five percent of the city's housing stock went up in flames, says NPR.

So far, 90,000 people have been evacuated and 5,700 California homes have burned down in the fires. This is easily the worst fire disaster in modern California history.

Areas away from the immediate fire zone continue to deal with bad air quality from the smoke. NBC News says the fires emitted as much air pollution in a week as all the cars in California do in a year.

Hospitals are reporting an influx of people with breathing problems. Outdoor activities, such as sporting events and a half marathon, have been canceled in the Bay Area. The NFL is considering moving the Oakland Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers game out of Oakland if the pollution persists.

By the way, it will be weeks before the California fire season ends. The state's most dangerous and most destructive wildfires tend to occur in October and November.

Computer models are giving mixed messages on a not-so-powerful storm that could come ashore in northern California next weekend. It will likely drop some rain, which will help, but it's unclear how much precipitation will come along.

It's almost guarateed to be not enough to totally end the fire risk. And very little rain is anticipated in southern California.

Today's California Storm Might Be The Most Dangerous Of All Of Them

Flooding in  Maxwell, California over the weekend.
The situation is likely to get worse in
northern California today. 

It seems I've been writing a lot about California rain, storms and flooding this winter, and here I go again.

I can't help it. The storms out there have been way too newsworthy to ignore.

The latest storm is sweeping into the northern half of California today, and this one could well end up being the most cataclysmic of the bunch.

Here's why:

First of all, today's storm is probably the strongest one of the winter. It has the strength of a storm that happens, on average just once every five to ten years. That means up to 10 inches of rain in some hilly sections of California, and several inches in many areas, including around Sacramento and the Bay Area.

Secondly, as we well know, it has already rained a LOT in California this winter. Talk about weather whiplash! From one of the state's worst droughts ever as of last autumn to a winter of flood emergencies.

The northern Sierra Nevada mountains are on a pace that could make this the wettest winter on record.   

The ground is saturated, flooding was ongoing before the storm even hit. This could get bad.

I noticed the wording in the flood warning issued by the National Weather Service office in Sacramento is particularly strong.

The warning covers most of northern California and states: "We may see flooding in locations which haven't been impacted in many years. We are strongly advising all residents in interior Northern California to be prepared for flooding...,..Gather a 'go bag' with important items like medication and hard to replace documents. Do not forget to plan for your pets and animals."

One strange irony of this potential flood emergency is it could make drinking water in shorter supply than the drought did. If too many levees fail in the Sacramento River delta area, water supplies could be seriously disrupted.

In a worst case scenario, there would be massive flooding in Sacramento, and thousands of people would have to flee in a moment's notice. Which would not end well, believe me.

That cataclysmic scenario is very unlikely, but within the realm of possibility

Landslides and mudslides, already a huge problem across California, will get worse today.  I'm sure a lot of roads will be blocked and lots of residents will be stranded. People were advised to stock up on food and supplies in case roads shut down.

The Oroville Dam, whose damaged spillways threatened a flood and forced the evacuation of some 180,000 people, is relatively stable as workers have managed to sharply lower the levels of the reservoir behind the dam.

So far, so good there, but it will be interesting to see how much the reservoir rises again with this new storm. Officials warn other dams in California are alreadys stressed by recent heavy rains and this won't help.

The Don Pedro Dam in the San Joaquin Valley is near capacity and an emergency spillway might have to be opened. If that happens, parts of Modesto could flood, reports KQED.

On top of the flooding rains, high winds will roar through northern California. Trees will easily topple in these winds, especially since the soil is so wet that the trees can be easily uprooted.

This latest storm will largely avoid Southern California, which is good since they're still reeling from Friday's drenching.  At least six people died in the southern California storm over the weekend.

That storm moved on to Texas by this morning, creating a possible tornado around San Antonio late last night that damaged at least 100 homes and caused some injuries, the Weather Channel reports.

The Houston area is getting heavy rain and storms this morning.

The system hitting northern California today will eventually make it out into the middle of the country, and could cause severe storms, heavy rain in some areas, and possibly a blizzard in the northern Plains.

It's too soon to know exactly how that will play out. Stay tuned, as I always say.

Terrible Floods In Louisiana Now, And New Ones Coming, Hint At Climate Change

Flood chaos in Louisiana Friday, from television
station WBRZ  

Boy, this is a month of flooding in the Grand Ole USA, with Louisiana the latest big victim. 

Recently, we've seen some nasty monsoon flooding in the Desert Southwest, and other bad floods yesterday in parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota.

It got much worse Friday, with an epic flood ongoing in  Louisiana as thunderstorms and torrential rains have pretty much stalled over the area since Thursday night.

The Louisiana floods are epic, and joining a lengthening list of off the charts floods we've had in different parts of the nation over the past year. (Think South Carolina last October, Texas in the winter, West Virginia in June, Maryland a couple weeks back.)

The extreme misery in Louisiana is continuing today, and spreading into the western part of that state, and into east Texas, and eventually Arkansas.

A moisture plume eminating from this mess  -- an atmospheric river - is extending northeastward, prompting flash flood watches in a long stripe from Missouri to Vermont.

(Further down in this post, I'll have a specific Vermont-area update for my fellow Green Mountain Boys and Girls)

The Louisiana floods have killed at least two, but I'm sure the death toll will rise, unfortunately. Many homes that never before came close to flooding are inundated. There have been hundreds of water rescues.

In Livingston Parish, Louisiana, 911 dispatchers managed zillions of flood-related calls even as flood waters surged into the 911 dispatch center.' No fewer than 3,000 homes were flooded in Livingston Parish alone.

Some people were evacuated to two churches, but had to be evacuated again when the churches flooded.

A few areas received two FEET of rain, and some of those areas can expect up to a foot more today.

Even when the rain stops, rivers will keep rising. Many of them in Louisiana are going to have record high crests.

Precipitable water in the air,  a measure of how efficiently showers and storms can drop rainfall, was near record highs even for normally wet Louisiana. The stalled, semi tropical system overhead used this excess water in the air to deadly effciency.

The higher the precipitable water is in a given spot, the heavier the rain will fall if a shower or storm moves over that area.

One of many water rescues in Louisiana Friday.  

That the nearby Gulf of Mexico has record high water temperatures doesn't help, since the higher the water temperature, the more efficient the evaporation is into the air, and that means more water feeding into the sluggish storm.

As I've noted in the past, the number of extreme precipitation events is increasing in much of the world, including the majority of the United States.

With every new flood event I offer this disclaimer and it's appropriate here: While I can't conclusively blame  Louisiana floods - and the potential floods to follow soon elsewhere - on global warming, these events are consistent with what scientists say is happening.

As the world warms, these events will probably only get worse.

On top of all that, more and more of the landscape is getting paved over in many areas, so water can't soak in. That means less water can soak into the ground during storms, so it runs off into creeks, rivers, roads, houses and businesses instead.

Right now, most of the eastern United States has high levels of precipitable water in the atmosphere. As heat waves go, this one in the U.S. isn't that extreme as far as actual temperatures. But the extraordinarly high humidity covering such a wide area poses the potential for trouble.

Even in drought-stricken areas of the Northeast, this high humidity now in place can cause thunderstorms to unleash incredible amounts of rain. There's the risk that lines of these storms can repeatedly go over the same area, causing flash floods even in formerly dry areas.

One such storm unloaded four inches of rain on a few towns near the Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts border on Friday.

Another similar storm inundated dozens of cars and RV's at the Illinois State Fair Friday.

A slow moving weather front interacting with Gulf of Mexico wet air and all that super humid air in place will continue the risk of flooding in various places over the next week in the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio and maybe Tennessee Valley and parts of the Northeast.

For many, this isn't going away anytime soon.

VERMONT UPDATE

The nearly stalled weather front that I mentioned above sagged southward into Vermont Friday, creating some relief from the heat in the northern parts of the state, and triggered some much needed rain.

Bonus: Nobody got excessively heavy rain, so it was all good.

However, the front is still around, and has become more active today, so the risk of flash flooding in parts of the region is real today into Sunday. There is a flash flood watch in effect for the northern two thirds of Vermont and much of northern New York into Sunday evening.

That semi-stalled front is drifting back north, and we will be in the thick of the humid air again today and tonight. Most of Vermont already was in the soup early Saturday morning.

Given the previous dry conditions, not everybody will get flooded in Vermont today - this is no Hurricane Irene - but local areas might get some dangerous flash flooding..

Here's why: Remember that high level of precipitable water I mentioned in the above national summary?  It's here now in Vermont, too. So any showers and storms that get going will be efficient rain makers.

So the usual heavy rain in thunderstorms today will be doubly torrential. Worse, there's the potential for training: That's when a narrow band of thunderstorms follows one another over one spot, like boxcars on a moving freight train.

Anyone stuck under that narrow band can get many inches of rain, and a flash flood can develop in no time.

That's true even if the ground is dry and dusty right before it rains. If it rains super hard, the water will run off into creeks and small streams, and you get sudden blasts of fast moving water coming off the hills. Very dangerous.

Also, in urban areas, like the middle of Burlington, Rutland, St. Albans, Montpelier, Barre and other towns, streets can very quickly flood in the type of downpour that's possible today and tonight, so be careful there.

The time period with the strongest risk of very heavy rain and flash floods is this afternoon and tonight.

Major rivers in Vermont and eastern New York are running low. The areas that get the flash flood rains will be relatively small, even if the potential for three to six inches of rain is there in those local areas.

The majority of Vermont and eastern New York will only get about one to two inches of rain. The bottom line is the big rivers might rise, but they probably won't flood.

The risk of flooding will decline Sunday afternoon as drier air moves in from the northwest.

Though there may be periods of unsettled weather midweek, at this point, I think we're safe from flooding in Vermont after Sunday. But I still want to watch that midweek stuff: If things stall again, there could conceivably be more trouble.   

Here's a video from Louisiana showing a truck being swept off a road by floodwaters. The driver was later rescued.