Vermont Evening Storm Update: Deep Snow NW; Ugly Mix Then Snow Elsewhere

The latest National Weather Service snow forecast map.  Notice
the change from this morning: The heaviest snow is further
north and west. 

Often, you can tell whether a storm will have a big impact on Vermont as it comes up the coast by looking what happens in the southeastern United States.

If things are ugly in the Southeast, then there's a good chance we'll have a humdinger of a storm hours later in northern New England.

Today, the Southeast was plagued by a series of severe storms and tornadoes. Flash flooding is also widespread down there.

This storm has a lot of moisture to work with. So yeah, Vermont's going to get quite a bit of precipitation between now and Friday night.

Where you are in Vermont and surrounding areas really depends upon precisely where you are. The far northwestern part of the state looks like it will get buried in snow, according to updated National Weather Service forecasts late this afternoon. The further south and east you go, the more sleet and freezing rain comes in.

Today's semi-stormy Vermont weather was well ahead of the main show.   As expected, most of Vermont got two to five inches of snow, followed by some mixed precipitation in central and southern areas this afternoon.

I only got 2.1 inches of new snow in St. Albans, in the northwestern corner of Vermont. There so far has been no mixed precipitation up here, but as I shoveled this first installment, it seemed pretty dense, hinting at a high water content.  At least the fact that there was no mix up here resulted in a fairly pretty winter day in northwestern Vermont, especially if you like snow.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington put out this
ice accumulation forecast map this afternoon. Orange areas
would get a tenth of an inch of ice. Red areas could see a quarter inch
before it all changes to snow Friday. 

Late this afternoon and early this evening, some areas of Vermont have found a lull, with no precipitation falling.

Patches of mixed precipitation will cross over Vermont overnight. It won't amount to too much, but it will be a harassing situation in terms of road conditions and that type of thing.

There are some changes in the overall forecast compared to this morning's outlook.   I knew that would happen, as this is a complex storm.

At this point, far northwestern Vermont will see periods of mostly snow overnight, though some sleet or even freezing rain could mix in.

Elsewhere, southeast of a line from Plattsburgh to Jay Peak, says the National Weather Service, it'll be a mixed bag.

It doesn't seem like precipitation will be too, too heavy overnight, but any amount of mixed precipitation is a pain in the butt.

Friday still looks like a total show stopper.  The storm coming out of the Southeast will consolidate. It will be rapidly strengthening and a whopper of a storm by the time it reaches New England.

Forecasters are still looking at a band of very intense precipitation on the northwestern flank of the storm.  Very heavy snow will develop in northern New York early in the morning and move east into the Champlain Valley by mid morning, according to the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

A steady, day long light snow today in St. Albans, Vermont amounted
 to two inches and pretty, snow laden pine trees in my yard.
Friday will be much more wild than this as the winter storm
intensifies. Lots of snow northwest, ice southeast

Especially south of St. Albans in the Champlain Valley, it's possible you'll be lulled into a false sense of security if you get up early and get ready for work.  Not much will be falling from the sky, but as the early to mid morning wears on, it'll puke snow.

It might start as mixed precipitation but it will rapidly go over to snow. The initial mixed precipitation Friday morning  is least likely up by St. Albans and most likely from Burlington south and east.

This morning, it looked as if most of Vermont north of Route 2 would get a good foot and a half of snow.  Now, that deepest snow will mostly in the northern Champlain Valley and west of the Green Mountains  - north of Burlington and in northern New York.

But it will be at least as awful further south and east across northern and central Vermont.  A good dose of sleet and freezing rain in the morning will turn into a a burst of very heavy snow that will last a few hours as it moves northwest to southeast during the day.

Most areas in Vermont will have turned over to snow by mid-afternoon.

You're going to see a sharp gradient in snow accumulation from northwest to southeast, at least if Thursday evening forecasts hold.  The initial guess calls for accumulations of around 19 inches in St. Albans, maybe a foot around Burlington, and perhaps six inches by the time you get down to Montpelier.  (I'm lifting that info from the NWS Burlington forecast map.)

In a way, though, the back-breaking shoveling I'm going to have to do up in St. Albans might be better than the alternative.

Ice accumulation south of Route 2 looks like it will be at least a tenth of an inch.  Try dealing with that kind of ice in your driveway then snow on top of that.  Or worse, try to be a state or town public works crew trying to clear that mess from the roads.

Even though there are slight changes in the forecast from this morning, my advice remains the same. Stay home Friday if you can.  I noticed a lot of schools have already announced they are shut down on Friday and a lot of events are canceled. That's a very good thing, in my opinion. The fewer people on Vermont roads Friday, the better.

I mentioned this will be a strong storm. That means strong winds. As temperatures crash, the snow will get more and more lighter and powdery.  That means lots of blowing and drifting snow Friday night as winds gust to more than 30 mph.

By the way, with a fresh snow pack on the ground, clearing skies and light winds Saturday night, we'll have the coldest night of the winter.  On the bright side, it hasn't been a cold winter, so the coldest night of the winter Saturday night means lows between 5 and 20 below.  Nothing extreme by Vermont standards.

Beyond that, the weather pattern looks like it will stay active, but I don't see any immediate signs of another huge storm in the coming week or so.  Small systems, yes, but no blockbusters.