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| I love these three big trees in my St. Albans, Vermont back yard. I definitely risk losing them to the oncoming ice storm, unfortunately. |
There's that damn ice storm coming, that's whh.
I already lost a beautiful willow tree to the storm back on November 1. I have three enormous poplars in the back yard. They're just wonderful. But they don't hold up well in heavy ice accumulations. So, maybe I'll lose those.
A row of cedar trees has grown up over the years on the south side of the property facing the road. They've helped turned the back yard into a private Eden. Cedars don't hold up in ice, either. So they're gone.
That's why we can't have nice things, right?
Maybe I'm overstating this. I hope I am. Maybe the trees will be saggy under the ice for a couple days then everything will be fine. I just don't like the risk. I love my trees almost as much as I love my precious two dogs.
Regarding the ic, forecasts have been pretty consistent for days now as to what will happen with this storm. It's still looking like the northern border counties of Vermont and New York will get a ton of ice. Slightly further south, there's a flood risk.
I'll get into the specifics in a minute, but first let's set this storm up. It is a weird one.
First of all, conditions are very ripe in the South for severe weather because winds veering with height south and east of the storm center. Ahead of the main line of severe thunderstorms with this system, supercells could easily develop. They have the potential to bring strong, long lasting tornadoes to parts of eastern Texas and Oklahoma and parts of Lousiana and Arkansas. Huge hailstones might fall with these, too.
A squall line of severe thunderstorms will also form and zoom eastward today, tonight and tomorrow through the Gulf Coast states.
A low-level jet, which is a current of fast-moving air a couple to a few thousand feet over the Earth's surface, will be going over this region. The low level jet is a product of this strong storm system and is unusually strong, as it's expected to reach speeds of up to 100 mph.
It's so strong people in the Gulf Coast states will probably be able to hear it roaring overhead.
This squall line will be able to grab chunks of this high speed air from a few thousand feet overhead and bring it to the surface. That means there's going to be a lot of wind damage with this. There will probably be widespread gusts of 75 mph or more with some of these storms.
Worse, the air will still be veering with height, so there probably will be some embedded tornadoes with this dangerous squall line.
Luckily, we in New England don't have to worry about this aspect of the storm, although there is a chance of gusty thunderstorms in southern New England Sunday.
The forecasts have been steady as she goes as the storm lifts northeastward later tonight, Saturday and into Sunday. Along the storm path, a broad band of heavy rain has prompted a widespread area of flood watches extending from northeastern Texas, through the Midwest, parts of the Great Lakes and on into central Vermont.
North and west of that line, it appears there will be a nearly equally broad band of damaging freezing rain. It'll extend from Oklahoma and Missouri, up through Illinois, into the Great Lakes and on into Ontario and southern Quebec, and northern New England.
VERMONT IMPACTS
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| Expected ice amounts in northern areas. I expect there to be somewhat thicker ice than this. You start to see some damage at a quarter inch thick. At a half inch, damage starts to get more substantial. |
One thing that gives me confidence this forecast is fairly accurate is the computer models, and the forecasts, have been pretty consistent for days.
As always, the devil is in the details.
The details are a forecasting nightmare. The temperature gradient across Vermont Saturday night will be extreme.
I have a feeling that somewhere in western Vermont, there will be a 30-mile or less zone where the temperature goes from the mid 50s to around 32 degrees south to north. As you can imagine, that makes it basically impossible to tell who gets what and when.
The broad brush expectation from the National Weather Service in South Burlington will have to do, then.
The (very reasonable) way they see things developing is this:
It's windy today, especially in the Champlain Valley, as you've surely noticed. That'll keep temperatures rising through the 30s and 40s during the day today and tonight. There might be a little rain around, but not much.
In southern areas of Vermont especially, temperatures will keep rising into the 50s to possibly near 60 as we get into Saturday.
Meanwhile, as the real rain begins in earnest, that low level cold front will slip down from Canada into northern Vermont and adjacent New York and New Hampshire.
How far south the cold front gets, and whether it wobbles north at times during the storm, will determine how much ice will accumulate. Remember, it will stay quite warm a few thousand feet overhead. So we won't get any snow, except maybe at the very tail end of the storm.
Instead, rain will fall into that thin layer of subfreezing air near the surface and freeze on contact.
Generally speaking, you start to see scattered power outages and tree damage when ice gets to be about a quarter inch thick. At half an inch, the damage gets pretty extensive. At three quarters to an inch thick, there's widespread, serious tree damage and also widespread, long-lasting power failures.
Early thoughts are Burlington's ice accumulation will be around a quarter of an inch. Bad, but not the end of the world.
But when you get to the northern border counties, we're talking a half inch of ice or more, which is definitely serious. There could be ice at least an inch thick in New York's St. Lawrence Valley. That area is really in trouble.
Of course, if the freezing rain begins earlier than expected and lasts longer than we think now, everything would be even worse. Stay tuned. For now, there's a winter storm watch for this scenario in the northern border counties.
Here are some tips for those of you in the expected ice zone:
--- Charge up your devices before the storm. The power outages might last a long time.
--- Get battery operated candles and lights ready, too. Make sure in advance you have plenty of extra batteries.
---- Fill up the car with gas, too. If the power is out, the gas stations can't pump gas. Don't park under trees, as branches or the whole thing might come down. If you park outside, consider covering your vehicle with a tarp. It'll be easier to get the ice off when this storm is over.
---- Get some cash, too. If you need to buy anything, especially in an emergency, stores with no power won't be able to process your credit or debit card
---- If you're going to use an electric generator, for gawd's sake make sure no fumes get in the house and everything exhausts outside. You don't want to die of carbon monoxide poisoning.
-----This being Captain Obvious, but stay away from downed power lines and out from under trees. You never know when a branch will snap off.
At this point, it's still seeming like precipitation will be mostly plain rain from very roughly Route 2 south, although there might be periods and pockets of freezing rain, too.
There's an inch or two of rain or melted ice coming with this storm, plus the squirt of warm air will melt what snow we have out there. So, there's a floo warning from immediately south of winter storm warning zone near the border down to Rutland and Windsor counties.
Precipitation will be somewhat lighter in far southern Vermont, which means so far, there's no flood alerts there.
The rain, and freezing rain and whatever else will end Sunday afternoon, but the ice will stay on everything in the north. Gusty winds will cause additional power outages and tree damage. Ugh.
I don't know about you, but I am NOT looking forward to this storm.
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