Big Snow Dump Likely Coming To Northern Vermont/NY

The famous National Weather Service snow forecast map from the
National Weathe Service in South Burlington. Click on it to
make it bigger and easier to see.  There could be 20
inches or more of snow from this storm near the Canadian border.

As expected the first inch or few inches of snow have fallen in much of Vermont early this morning in what promises to be a long slog through snow and mixed precipitation.

The precipitation will harass us through tonight, but the main show comes on Friday, and it has the potential to be a real doozy.

As of around 8 a.m., light snow was falling over most of Vermont, with mixed precipitation coming into the far south of the state. The question for today is, how far north will that mix get?

There's no question the southern half of Vermont will be pretty damn messy today.  

After the few inches of snow that accumulate there this morning, it'll go over to sleet and freezing rain.  In the southern half of Vermont, that mix of yuck will probably continue into Friday morning.

The most ice will probably accumulate south of Route 4.  Except in some isolated areas, it won't be enough to cause tree and power line damage, but it will surely mess up travel!  Additional snow toward the end of the storm could cause more power line trouble Friday.

It's hard to say how far north the sleet or a little freezing rain will get, but I wouldn't be surprised if sleet made it as far north as the Canadian border, at least briefly.  Still, areas north of Route 2 will be mostly snow through tonight.

The rate of precipitation will lull you into a false sense of security this afternoon and this evening.  It won't come down hard, and you'll say, "Oh, this isn't so bad. Another hyped storm."

And I suppose there's a chance it could be a bust.  But right now, things are lining up for Grand Hurrah for the last phase of the storm on Friday - one that could bring a good foot and a half of snow, especially to places north of that infamous Route 2 line.

Yesterday, I mentioned that often, on the northwest side of a storm moving up the New England coast, you get a band of especially heavy precipitation that pretty much stays nearly in one place for several hours at least.

It's starting to become a little more clear where that band will set up, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

They're saying that band of heavy snow will establish itself over northern New York before dawn, then slowly crawl eastward across Vermont during the day Friday. Under this band, snowfall rates could easily reach one to two inches per hour, possibly even more than that. - which is really, really heavy snow. A good portion of northern Vermont could easily get six to 12 inches snow in just a few hours.  

Ice accumulation forecast for this storm in southern Vermont. The
ice, combined with some heavy, wet snow, could cause
scattered power outages Friday.

The expected set up, with a strong, deep cold front hitting the intense moisture feed with this storm, is a recipe for really heavy snow.

It's similar to they type of situation we had in the Valentine's Blizzard of 2007, or the Pi Day Blizzard of March, 2017.  

However, having said that, it does NOT look like this storm will be as bad as those two famous storms. The band of heavy snow won't last nearly as long in any one place as it did in these two historic storms.

At this point the heaviest snow in this band seems like it will come through in the morning to mid-afternoon, so I would stay put and not drive anywhere during this. The snow will initially be somewhat wet and heavy, but turn much more powdery as the day wears on.

Southern Vermont has an even trickier forecast with this.  Remember, they'll be more into the sleet and freezing rain Friday morning.  My guess is they'll be on the southern end of this intense precipitation band.

Sleet and freezing rain could turn heavy for a time, then change to a period of heavy snow, with several inches of accumulation a good bet.

It's interesting that northern Vermont is under a winter storm warning for this event, while southern Vermont is under what to a layman seems like a less dire but still to be taken seriously winter weather advisory.

In my experience, dealing with, then cleaning up after a combined mixed precipitation and heavy snow event is much more difficult than just enduring, then shoveling away a particularly deep snowstorm that comes with little or no ice.

The snow will become lighter in intensity late in the afternoon or evening on Friday, then end overnight, aside from continued snow showers in the mountains.

However, definitely stay home Friday night if you can. Winds will pick up to 20 mph or so, with gusts of 35 mph.  That'll cause a lot of blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures will plummet overnight, too, dropping to near zero in many spots by Saturday morning. Wind chills will be a huge problem.

Saturday will be the time to enjoy a powder day in the northern Green Mountains. It'll still definitely be on the cold side, but the winds will slowly diminish and skies will get sunnier.  Sunday looks pretty gorgeous, too, with light winds and highs up in the 20s (after temperatures recover from below zero readings early Sunday morning.)

The bottom line is this will probably be Vermont's Storm of the Winter.  At least in most of the state. (A December storm was much bigger than this in far southern Vermont.) A band across extreme northern New York, then through places like St. Albans and on over to Newport could get about 20 inches of snow.  Which means this is more than a typical Vermont snowstorm.

Areas between Route 4 and Route 2 are in for roughly a foot of snow, give or take a few inches.  South of Route 4, all that mixed precipitation will limit totals to eight inches or less. At least that's the way it looks now.

Potential surprises with this storm:  Mixed precipitation could work further north than expected, cutting down accumulations somewhat. Or, that band of really heavy snow expected Friday in the north could end up being a little less intense than forecast, which would cut down forecast totals. On the other hand, local wind effects working with this band of snow could create spot snow totals of two feet or more in some northern locations

In southern Vermont, if the atmosphere is a bit colder than expected, snow accumulations will obviously be a little heavier. On the other hand, it's possible it could get a little warmer than forecast, which would change everything over to plain rain for a time.

So yeah, there are still question marks about this storm.  But one thing is for sure: You will certainly notice this storm.