Wicked Ugly Weather Friday In Vermont. Stay Home!

Storm total map for snow accumulation, updated early Friday
morning. Snow could reach a depth of more than a foot
across the northwest.  Strong winds will blow
the snow around, too. This comes after freezing rain
and sleet early this morning. 

On this February Friday in Vermont we're faced with a storm in which forecasts issued early this morning for your area will probably be at least a little wrong.

However, any little inaccuracies don't really matter with this storm.

The bottom line is, it's a very ugly out there an it will get even uglier as the day wears on.  This is totally a day that you will either want to work from home or just call in sick, if possible.

You won't want to be out in the roads anywhere in or near Vermont today.

In most of the state and surrounding areas, you will experience sleet, freezing rain, then heavy snow, blowing snow, whiteouts, strong winds and plunging temperatures.

The combination, at least in my opinion, makes this just about the worst type of storm to be caught out in.

But, you're perfectly safe if you just stay home.  I just went through the list of today's school closings at the Vermont Public Radio web site and it's an awfully long list.  I'm pretty sure your town's school is closed today.

The overall forecast scenario for this storm is the same as last night with one big question: What will be falling from the sky and when?  That will have a big influence on how much ice accumulates on roads, trees and power lines. It will also determine whether you get only a few inches of snow at your house or a foot and a half. We do know precipitation, whatever it is, will come down really hard at times.

There are big timing questions as to when mixed precipitation will go over to snow in any one spot in Vermont today.  If it changes over even an hour later than forecast, you get more ice, but much less snow accumulation.  If the change comes an hour or two earlier than predicted, you get a few inches of extra snow.

It's really impossible to time the changeover super accurately with this type of storm.

Like I said, though, it doesn't really matter what falls from the sky at any given minute today.  No matter what, it's beyond lousy.

THE DETAILS:

Ice accumulations in central Vermont might be enough to break
some trees and power lines. (Red areas especially).

Overnight, the mixed precipitation, though light, made it northward all the past the Canadian border.

At my house in St. Albans, we had a glaze of freezing drizzle overnight. As of 5:30 a.m., that changed to heavier showers of mixed sleet and freezing rain.

Snow was increasing in northern New York as of 6 a.m. today. Radar indicated the rate of snowfall was rapidly increasing over northwestern New York.

As this heavy band of precipitation becomes established, it will intensify and move east into Vermont.  It will bring sharply colder air with it, changing mixed precipitation to snow over northwestern Vermont first. Then the snow will head south and east across the state.

For this morning's commute, things will go from iffy to much worse as the morning wears on. The best guess from the National Weather Service in South Burlington is that snow will reach the Burlington area by around 9 or 10 a.m. today, Montpelier around noon, and early to mid afternoon in southern Vermont.

As of 6:50 a.m., at least, this scenario seems pretty accurate, as snow was beginning to mix in with the sleet and freezing rain up here in St. Albans, the northwestern corner of Vermont.

As this changeover happens, the rate of precipitation will increase as this storm, already strong, really cranks up. Whatever falls from the sky will come down pretty hard. This type of storm  often sets up narrow, intense bands of precipitation  on its northwest flank, which we will be in.  So, one town might end up with say, 15 inches of snow, while a community just 20 miles to the west or east gets maybe six inches.

Before the changeover, ice could accumulate on trees in power lines in south central Vermont enough to create some power failures, so be ready for that. In the north, there won't be enough ice to cause many problems in tha regard, but high winds later today could be an issue.

The intense storm center will move over western Massachusetts and into coastal Maine this afternoon. If  you have a barometer, check it out this afternoon. It will be awfully low. Strong storms usually create strong winds, so you'll feel that later today.

By the time the wind begins to howl by this afternoon, it will have snowed quite a bit in northern Vermont, and many areas in northern Vermont will see snowfall rates of one or two inches per hour. That's very heavy snow. Those strong winds, gusting as high as 40 mph risk causing whiteout conditions this afternoon and evening. Yet another reason to not go out.

By the way, this winter storm is not just a Vermont issue, of course. Southern Quebec, northern New York, much of New Hampshire and most of Maine also face heavy snow, strong winds and ice.

Back here in Vermont, It'll be rough this evening, but snow will taper off and end overnight, as it gets very cold.  If you're digging out Saturday morning, dress for it.  The day will start with temperatures of near zero degrees.