Wicked Ugly Weather Friday In Vermont. Stay Home!

Storm total map for snow accumulation, updated early Friday
morning. Snow could reach a depth of more than a foot
across the northwest.  Strong winds will blow
the snow around, too. This comes after freezing rain
and sleet early this morning. 

On this February Friday in Vermont we're faced with a storm in which forecasts issued early this morning for your area will probably be at least a little wrong.

However, any little inaccuracies don't really matter with this storm.

The bottom line is, it's a very ugly out there an it will get even uglier as the day wears on.  This is totally a day that you will either want to work from home or just call in sick, if possible.

You won't want to be out in the roads anywhere in or near Vermont today.

In most of the state and surrounding areas, you will experience sleet, freezing rain, then heavy snow, blowing snow, whiteouts, strong winds and plunging temperatures.

The combination, at least in my opinion, makes this just about the worst type of storm to be caught out in.

But, you're perfectly safe if you just stay home.  I just went through the list of today's school closings at the Vermont Public Radio web site and it's an awfully long list.  I'm pretty sure your town's school is closed today.

The overall forecast scenario for this storm is the same as last night with one big question: What will be falling from the sky and when?  That will have a big influence on how much ice accumulates on roads, trees and power lines. It will also determine whether you get only a few inches of snow at your house or a foot and a half. We do know precipitation, whatever it is, will come down really hard at times.

There are big timing questions as to when mixed precipitation will go over to snow in any one spot in Vermont today.  If it changes over even an hour later than forecast, you get more ice, but much less snow accumulation.  If the change comes an hour or two earlier than predicted, you get a few inches of extra snow.

It's really impossible to time the changeover super accurately with this type of storm.

Like I said, though, it doesn't really matter what falls from the sky at any given minute today.  No matter what, it's beyond lousy.

THE DETAILS:

Ice accumulations in central Vermont might be enough to break
some trees and power lines. (Red areas especially).

Overnight, the mixed precipitation, though light, made it northward all the past the Canadian border.

At my house in St. Albans, we had a glaze of freezing drizzle overnight. As of 5:30 a.m., that changed to heavier showers of mixed sleet and freezing rain.

Snow was increasing in northern New York as of 6 a.m. today. Radar indicated the rate of snowfall was rapidly increasing over northwestern New York.

As this heavy band of precipitation becomes established, it will intensify and move east into Vermont.  It will bring sharply colder air with it, changing mixed precipitation to snow over northwestern Vermont first. Then the snow will head south and east across the state.

For this morning's commute, things will go from iffy to much worse as the morning wears on. The best guess from the National Weather Service in South Burlington is that snow will reach the Burlington area by around 9 or 10 a.m. today, Montpelier around noon, and early to mid afternoon in southern Vermont.

As of 6:50 a.m., at least, this scenario seems pretty accurate, as snow was beginning to mix in with the sleet and freezing rain up here in St. Albans, the northwestern corner of Vermont.

As this changeover happens, the rate of precipitation will increase as this storm, already strong, really cranks up. Whatever falls from the sky will come down pretty hard. This type of storm  often sets up narrow, intense bands of precipitation  on its northwest flank, which we will be in.  So, one town might end up with say, 15 inches of snow, while a community just 20 miles to the west or east gets maybe six inches.

Before the changeover, ice could accumulate on trees in power lines in south central Vermont enough to create some power failures, so be ready for that. In the north, there won't be enough ice to cause many problems in tha regard, but high winds later today could be an issue.

The intense storm center will move over western Massachusetts and into coastal Maine this afternoon. If  you have a barometer, check it out this afternoon. It will be awfully low. Strong storms usually create strong winds, so you'll feel that later today.

By the time the wind begins to howl by this afternoon, it will have snowed quite a bit in northern Vermont, and many areas in northern Vermont will see snowfall rates of one or two inches per hour. That's very heavy snow. Those strong winds, gusting as high as 40 mph risk causing whiteout conditions this afternoon and evening. Yet another reason to not go out.

By the way, this winter storm is not just a Vermont issue, of course. Southern Quebec, northern New York, much of New Hampshire and most of Maine also face heavy snow, strong winds and ice.

Back here in Vermont, It'll be rough this evening, but snow will taper off and end overnight, as it gets very cold.  If you're digging out Saturday morning, dress for it.  The day will start with temperatures of near zero degrees.

Dangerous Ice Here In Vermont This Morning

Quite a bit of ice on the trees already as dawn broke outside
my St. Albans, Vermont house this morning. 

UPDATE: 8:30 AM.:

At least for now, freezing rain has changed to snow in much of Vermont as colder air aloft is working into the storm system.

This isn't exactly helping, since the snow on top of the ice if anything makes the ice more slippery.

And this is wet snow. It'll pile up on top of already ice-encrusted trees and power lines, causing even more power failures and damage.

The number of power failures in Vermont as of 8:30 a.m. has ticked up to about 2,100.

Expect wet snow, maybe mixed with sleet and freezing rain and rain at times, to continue this morning off and on.

But it will continue to become lighter and lighter in intensity as we go through the morning. It will even come to a complete stop at times. The very heaviest precipitation is over, or will be ending soon.

Still, we'll get light periods of mixed precipitation well into this evening.

PREVIOUS 7:15 A.M. DISCUSSION

I awoke this morning in St. Albans, Vermont to a pounding rain. Freezing rain, to be exact.

Everything is covered in ice. Trees are sagging under the weight of the freeze. Not good.

We knew there would be an ugly mix of precipitation in Vermont today, but it was unclear what would predominate.  It turns out freezing rain is the main story.

In many if not most areas of the state, it turns out to be a dangerous freezing rain. Although some areas still have sleet and snow mixing in.

Some areas of northern Vermont received two to three inches of snow overnight in addition to the ice.  Other areas, like the Champlain Valley, have received mostly freezing rain.

There was already about a quarter inch of ice on the trees and all other surfaces outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont. That's nearing the threshhold at which branches and power lines start to fail.

Given the complicated, near 32 degree temperature through a fairly thick layer of the atmosphere over Vermont today, expect unexpected switches to sleet and snow, then maybe back to freezing rain at random times today, too.

I notice Burlington had several hours of freezing rain, then switched to snow, at least for a time, around 7:30 a.m

The bottom line: No matter what happens to be falling from the sky at the moment, don't travel this morning if you don't have to. If you must, take it slow and easy. The roads are absolutely terrible. Even where they salted the hell out of them, the rain washed the salt off, then the roads re-freeze.

By the way, pretty much every school in Vermont is closed because of the weather, so don't bother to take your kids in this morning. Several businesses are closed, too.

It's dangerous underfoot, too. I could barely walk across the driveway and lawn when I took the dogs out for their morning business. One of my dogs slipped and fell. (Jackson is fine.)

As of 7 a.m., about 1,400 homes and businesses were without power in Vermont, according to Vermont Outage Map. I expect that number to rise.

On the bright side, this won't turn out to be nearly as bad as the epic ice storm of 1998, or even the nasty Christmas week ice storm of 2013.

The heaviest precipitation will have ended, I think, before there's any real widespread, extensive damage to trees and power lines. Still, expect some broken lines and fallen branches today.

The mixed precipitation, mostly freezing rain, will continue in Vermont at least through the rest of this morning. In a few valley locations, there will be a break in which temperatures sneak a little above freezing, and ice will change to rain for a time.

That might allow some of the weight of the ice on trees and power lines could diminish a bit,  and some of the ice would melt off the roads, which is a good thing.

Things will refreeze tonight, with scattered light freezing rain, sleet and snow likely. Precipitation won't be nearly as heavy later today as it is this morning, so it'll be a little better by then. Not much, though.

Unfortunately, the ice that's now underfoot will pretty much stay there. It might get above freezing for a few hours Wednesday and possibly Thursday afternoon, but maybe not long enough to melt all the ice.

I'm sure the emergency room at hospitals will be busy over the next few days from people falling on the ice.

Kinda depresssing, but it is winter in Vermont.