No New Nor'easter In Forecast, But Gotta Talk About Snow Anyway (Sigh)

Satellite views of each of the four nor'easters this month. Click on
the image to make it bigger and easier to see. 

For the first time in what seems like a month at least, this post won't contain a forecast for an upcoming nor'easter.  

There's not one in our immediate future anyway. But, of course, this being an ultra-reluctant spring, I do have to talk about snow, winter storms, a post mortem of the last nor'easter, and winter cold.

It's not all bad, though. Just mostly bad.

The last departing nor'easter really clobbered Long Island, parts of the New York City metro areas, New Jersey, parts of eastern Pennsylvania and Maryland.

There were many, many reports of a foot or more of wet snow in this area. Parts of Long Island seemed to be the big winner, with 20.1 inches reported at Potchogue and 19.3 inches at Bay Shore, both on New York's Long Island.

New York City managed to avoid having its latest foot-deep snowstorm on record, with "only" 8.4 inches in Central Park.

Pretty view of Central Park, New York yesterday. Photo by
Michael Brochstein/Getty Images

Reagan Airport, near Washington DC, picked up 3.7 inches of snow with this. That was more snow than the total that fell for the entire winter of 2017-18. So more than half their snow came in the spring.

Southern New England got lucky. Dry air feeding south from dry, cold high pressure over Quebec suppressed the snow, so other than in parts of Connecticut, that region got four or fewer inches of snow.

By the way, meteorologists in southern New England are taking heat for an incorrect forecast. Most had predicted much more snow than they got. The whiners are saying that meteorologists "always" get it wrong.

There's truth to that, but not in a way that insults meteorologists. As Crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy) notes on Twitter, some people want absolute precision on what will happen in their back yard, and the science isn't there. Then they howl bitterly when the forecast doesn't come out quite right.

Every storm will "misbehave" in such a way where somebody will get less or more snow, rain, wind or whatever than forecast.

Bottom line: When you hear a forecast from a meteorologist, and they tell, you, say, we're going to get four to eight inches of snow, don't just accept we're going to get exactly six inches and complain when that doesn't come true.

The four to eight inches is a best estimate, and the intricacies of the atmosphere being what they are, you could end up with less or more than forecast. Use the predictions as a guide, not gosepl.

VERMONT SNOW (NOT MUCH)

That dry air from Quebec meant that it didn't really snow in Vermont, either. Instead of a couple inches in far southern Vermont, there were only flurries.

Of course, there's snow in the forecast, not just much.

Today, a bit of wrap around moisture from that offshore nor'easter, combined with a favorable wind flow, will probably squeeze out a few snow showers or flurries, mostly in the northern Green Mountains and the western slopes. It won't amount to much of anything.

Other little disturbances Friday, Saturday and Sunday morning will probably result in more snow showers in Vermont from time to time, but accumulations each time will be a dusting to an inch, with perhaps a tad more than that in the mountains. No big deal.

It'll stay colder than normal through Sunday, so what snow is on the ground, and the little bit we'll get over the next few days will continue to melt only very slowly. At least daytime highs in the valleys will make it into the low to mid 30s, so with a little sun getting through the clouds, the snow will continue to settle a bit.

There are definite signs of a brief warmup next week to interrupt a cold pattern that should continue well into April.  But we will get that break Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 40s to perhaps near 50 degrees. That'll clean up some of the snow, at least in the valleys.

Unfortunately, it looks like we revert to chilly weather, with occasional wet snow and cold rain risks after next Wednesday.  But by then it will be April, so it won't be as cold as March, only because the sun angle keeps going up and up.

WEIRD SNOWSTORM COMING TO U.S.

Forecast map shows a weird, narrow band of heavy snow will
track from North Dakota southeastward to Virginia
over the next few days. 

The weather pattern, as I said, generally favors chill, and there's a weird snowstorm in the works for a narrow band in the middle of the country.

Usually snowstorms go west to east, or southwest to northeast as they travel. This one is diving down toward the southeast.

It'll start in North Dakota tomorrow, then head across parts of eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota, northern and eastern Iowa, north-central Illinois, central Indiana, southern Ohio then into the western Virginias.

Yeah, odd. And it's going to be a narrow band. Some areas will get eight to 12 inches of snow, while others just a couple dozen miles north or south of the band will get little.

And you know that discussion above about "wrong" forecasts? This one has wrong written all over it. If this snowband sets up just a little north or south of current predictions, or the temperature is a a wee bit warmer or colder, the forecast will be a total bust. This is really a meteorologist's headache.

Be prepared for whines about extra snow or not enough snow anywhere from Minnesota to Virginia in the next couple of days.

CALIFORNIA SCREAMING

Today will be the rainiest stretch this week in southern California, and will be the peak of the rough weather today. Some debris flows have been reported, but it hasn't been too bad - yet.

After today, things will dry out in California again, and little rain is forecast in southern California next week.