After Four Hours Of Shoveling, Not Wanting To Contemplate Snow, Cold, But....

I took this photo at about 9 a.m. this morning, March 15. 2018
in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. Lots of snow to shovel! 

As you might have seen, I really couldn't post a decent post in this here weather blog thingy this morning because I had too much snow to shovel.

I spent four and a half hours out there shoveling today. I'm not nearly done, but I got some done. We can at least now easily get in and out of the driveway.

LOTS OF SNOW

After 18.5 inches of new snow, mostly rather wet and heavy during the latest storm here at my place in St. Albans, Vermont, it was a relief to only get flurries today.

It's relatively chilly out, but at least the sun struggling to get through the clouds is trying to melt the snow off my truck, off the pavement, etc.

This photo looks almost identical to the above photo, but
I took it around 9 a.m. on March 15, 2017 - exactly one
year ago. Then, we were getting over the "Pi Day"
Blizzard. Today, in 2018, we're getting over another
big March snowfall. 

A little snow is continuing today and into this evening along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, so there might be a little more accumulation in some spots. But not much.

Not that we need more accumulation. The 18.5 inches of snow I got since early Tuesday morning here in St. Albans is impressive, but not the most reported in Vermont.  Not even close. There's some big snow totals out there out of this one.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont, reports storm totals so far of 30 inches in Eden, Stowe, and Westfield, Vermont. Graniteville, Vermont, was close with 29.5 inches.

The deep, heavy snow extended into the Adirondacks. Saranac, New York reported 26 inches of new snow, and Ausable Forks was close behind at 25.7 inches.

There is so much snow in the mountains that the NWS in South Burlington, Vermont is still warning people to be careful with backcountry skiing and riding in the Green Mountains and Adirondacks. There's actually a risk of avalanches over the next several days in these regions.

SPRING FLOODING?

I speculated the other day as to whether the NWS in South Burlington would adjust their spring flood outlook given how much snow we've gotten lately.

The flooding Lamoille River near Cambridge, Vermont
cascades through trees during severe spring flooding
in April, 2011.  It's possible - but not definite -
that recent deep snowstorms and above normal soil
moisture could bring damaging spring floods to the
Green Mountain State this year. 

The short answer is: Yep, they definitely changed the spring flood outlook and the news is worse.

A couple weeks ago, the NWS was saying the spring flood outlook this year was near to a little below normal.

At that point, ground water content and river flows were above normal, but there was definitely a below normal snow cover, with bare ground in the valleys.

The lack of snow foretold a lack of flooding.

As you might have guessed, all this new, deep  snow cover has changed dramatically. The ground water and river flows are still above normal, but now the snow cover is near to above normal,  too. There's quite a bit of water locked in this snowpack, which will eventually melt. Even in the lower elevations, there's two to five inches of rainwater locked in the snowpack.

The bottom line: The risk of spring flooding this year in Vermont is near to above normal. 

The March sun angle is higher, so you will see over the next several days a tiny bit of melting, especially in low elevations, of some snowbanks and sunny hillsides. But the melting will be minimal, given forecasts of below normal temperatures for the next week or so.

Worse, yet another nor'easter is possible next week. If it comes to fruition, there would be a lot more snow added to the snowpack.

Through around March 29, temperatures across New England are forecast to stay below normal, and precipitation is expected to be near to above normal.

That means additions to the snowpack, and delayed spring melting. The spring flooding could get nasty if we get into April and the weather suddenly turns warmer than normal and the weather pattern remains active.

Heavy rainstorms and warm temperatures could defintely bring some damaging spring flooding to Vermont. On the other hand, we've been through this drill before. In 2001, late March snowcover was way, way above normal. They were guaranteeing flooding.

But the melt was gradual, and April precipitation was below normal. Flooding that year was relatively minor.

On the other hand, in 2011, snow cover was way, way above normal in Vermont by late March. We had a warm, and record wet spring, and we had repeated, devastating floods in Vermont from April into June.

Bottom line: We'll see.

Weather dog Jackson, our cocker spaniel, is face flecked
with snow from playing outside today, looks lost amid our
giant snowbanks in our St. Albans, Vermont driveway today. 

IMMEDIATE FORECAST: HOPE YOU LIKE WINTER

If you like winter, the forecast is great for you. Despite the incessant snow over the past couple of weeks, temperatures have actually been running above normal for the first half of March.

That is about to change.

First of all, a little more snow is in the forecast for tonight. Most of it will be in the northern and central Green Mountains where another one to three inches could fall. It'll probably be closer to a dusting in the valleys.

Highs were in the seasonable 30s again today, but will only reach the 20s Friday afternoon. Wind gusts as high as 30 mph will bring a nasty wind chill, which will remind you of January.

It gets a bit worse, actually, on Saturday. An Arctic cold front looks like it wants to come through, setting off some snow showers and maybe some snow squalls. Accumulations for most of us will probably be only a dusting. However a few places bullseyed by the squalls could pick up a quick inch or two.

With the cold front, temperatures Saturday afternoon will only get into the upper teens to mid 20s. The wind gusts might be even stronger than on Friday, maybe reaching 35 mph.

Weather dog Tonks inspects my shoveling job today in our
St. Albans, Vermont driveway, and looks warily at the snow
about to slide off our roof, which would necessitate additional
shoveling. Even though I'm exhausted already. 

Saturday night, get ready for temperatures colder than we've seen since early February. Relatively clear skies and deep snow cover and Arctic air will bring the "warmer" valleys of Vermont down to around 5 degrees by Sunday morning.

The colder valleys could end up as low as ten below by dawn Sunday.

Temperatures will stay January-like at least through Tuesday.

After that: Another nor'easter?

It's certainly possible. Computer forecasting models are all over the place for Tuesday through Thursday, but it's certainly possible we could get another nor'easter with heavy snow.

It's also possible this could be a total whiff, with nothing at all. We'll have to keep looking at the forecasts to see what will become of this.

Spring will get here. But it might be awhile.