Very Snowy Nor'easter To Clobber New England

While many forecasts keep the heaviest snow
from the Hudson Valley and western New England then
points east, some plausible forecasts this morning
push the snow further west. This model has heavy snow
extending through Vermont into eastern and Central
New York. Not an official forecast here, but something
to watch. 

Winter storm watches have been upgraded to warnings as it becomes more and more apparent that a good chunk of the Northeast is going to get thumped by quite a heavy snow.  

The winter storm warnings cover all but the the southeast, northeast and very far northwest corners of New England, along with parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

It looks like a foot of snow will be common from the eastern Pennsylvania Poconos, up through the Hudson Valley of New York, western Connecticut, western and central Massachusetts, southern, central and parts of eastern Vermont, southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine.

There will probably be a few spot 20 inch reports from the western Massachusetts, southern Vermont, southwest New Hampshire and maybe near the Albany Capital District. (My least favorite town at the moment is Cobleskill, New York, which got 40 inches of snow in the last storm and is expected ten inches more this time.)

By the way, a band of particularly heavy snow might set up for several hours in the middle of this heavy snow area that I just described, so there could be some surprises with even more snow than the heavy thumping of more than a foot I've just described. It's also possible the super heavy snow band could include Cobleskill, which would really bury them.

The heaviest snow is still expected to sweep northward with the nor'easter Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. This will be a wet, sticky snow in many areas, including low elevations here in Vermont, so we'll be shoveling something akin to wet cement by Thursday.

Southern New England is still totally screwed by this storm. It'll likely be mostly rain, not snow across southeastern New England. North and west of a line from Providence, Rhode Island to Boston, there might be rain, but there also could very well be a bunch of very wet, heavy snow. Though it won't be as windy as last time, fairly strong gusts will make matters worse.

Trees and power lines weakened by the blast from last Friday's epic nor'easter will probably come crashing down, leading to new power failures. (Not everybody has their power back from the last storm down in that neck of the woods.)

Shorelines are extremely vulnerable now in coastal southern New England, with dunes washed away, houses teetering and sea walls battered by the last storm, which brought several days of high tides and waves and storm surges.

This storm will bring its own package of waves and surges. They won't be as bad as last time, but it will add to the damage along the coast.

VERMONT SPECIFIC

National Weather Service in South Burlington
has this preliminary snowfall prediction from
Wednesday through Thursday evening. Areas
in orange expect eight or more inches of snow.
Note that more snow will fall over the northern
Green Mountains after Thursday evening.

Today will be a nice March day, with sunshine and highs near 40 degrees. You'll wake up to a cloudy Wednesday morning. There might be some spotty snow around in the morning and early afternoon, ut no big deal.

First Wave

The main wave of snow looks like it will come along starting Wednesday evening and go on through the night into Thursday morning.

The snow will come down really hard, south of Route 2 outside the Champlain Valley. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some places in that region get more than a foot of snow by Thursday morning.

Do note that narrow band of particularly heavy snow might also set up somewhere in Vermont, most likely southern and eastern areas, which could lead to surprises. It's even possible, though not super likely the heavy snow band could set up further west, affecting the Champlain Valley.

This isn't cast in stone, but have noticed a few computer models this Tuesday morning push the heavier snow a bit further north and west than they did last night.

However, at this point, it looks like snow will be somewhat lighter in the Champlain Valley and in parts of the Northeast Kingdom. The White Mountains in New Hampshire and the Green Mountains in Vermont will block some of the moisture coming in with the east winds during the first phase of the storm, through Thursday morning.

Winter storm watches have been upgraded to warnings in all of Vermont except the far northwest corner of the state, up by St. Albans and Alburgh. There's still a question if the snow will be heavy enough there to qualify to be a winter storm. Still, several inches of snow are likely up there.

There might be scattered power failures with this storm, as the snow will be fairly wet.

Second Wave

We're still looking at a long second phase of the storm Thursday and Friday in northern Vermont, especially in the mountains. The storm will sort of stall near Maine, then wobble a bit north and west while weakening.

This will set up a very wet flow of west and northwest winds that will go up and over the Green Mountains. As I explained yesterday, this will wring out moisture and prompt additional snow. The Champlain Valley could get a few more inches of wet snow out of this.

The western slopes of the Green Mountains, which will miss out somewhat in the snow Wednesday night, will get quite a bit of snow Thursday and Friday - six inches or more. The snow Thursday and Friday will really continue to pile up in the Green Mountains, so the ski areas from Killington north could easily end up with storm totals of more than two feet between Wednesday evening and Saturday morning.

The weather is still expected to be decent over the weekend, with some sunshine, especially on Sunday. That'll be great for your powder day enthusiasts. In the valleys, afternoon temperatures will get a bit above freezing. Plus the sun angle is higher this time of year. That will give your storm cleanup a bit of an assist by melting a little bit of the snow you have to clear from your driveway.

Then again, yet another nor'easter looks like a fairly good bet early next week. It's too soon to tell how, or if that next week storm will affect Vermont. It also looks possible we might get a brief, mid-winter style cold spell next week, too.

Winter ain't over yet.