Winter Storm Watch Up For Vermont, Most Of Rest Of New England

Does this look enticing to you, winter sports fans?
Mount Mansfield and other areas of the Green Mountains
in Vermont might get a LOT of snow this week.

I told you so.

Back during that record late February heat, when pretty much all the snow disappeared from Vermont, when winter sports enthuiasts mourned, I said you'd get at least some of your snow back, that winter wasn't over.

I was right. I told you so.

First off, central and southern Vermont mountains got up to half a foot of snow, locally more, from that big nor'easter Friday.

Then that big nor'easter helped give us a parting gift yesterday and last night. Moisture coming in from that nor'easter way, way off the coast dropped a few more inches of snow on much of the area. Even valleys, where two inch totals were pretty widespread in the Champlain Valley.

Now we're under a winter storm watch here in the Green Mountain State. 

A watch, of course means maybe. We're not definitely going to get a big dump of snow, but signs point to that idea. And it's still looking like the mountains, the ski areas, will get the most out of this.

Computer models are staying consistent. That storm producing a blizzard out in the Dakotas today will trudge eastward, then transfer its energy to the coast somewhere near the Carolinas. That will spin up yet another nor'easter that will head toward New England.

It's still pretty early to pin down how much snow will fall, but it appears there will be two phases to this storm. The winter storm watch covers the first phase, Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

Preliminary indications are that snowfall will range from three or four inches near Lake Champlain to anywhere from six to close to a foot of snow from the spine of the Green Mountains east. (Remember, this is preliminary, the forecast could easily change.)

By the way, in the warmer valleys, precipitation might start off as rain or a mix of rain and snow Wednesday afternoon before changing to all snow.

For instance, the European weather computer model takes the storm further east, which would cut down on snow accumulations in Vermont. However, lately the European has been taking East Coast storms further east than they actually track.

Then we get into Phase II. The weather pattern is still blocked up, so things are moving slowly. It still looks like this nor'easter will only slowly move north off the Maine coast into the Canadian Maritimes later Thursday, through Friday and into Saturday.

This sets up a long period in which moisture gets wrapped around the storm, comes in from the north and west. The wind going up and over the Green Mountains wrings out a lot of the moisture in this type of scenario, and that could lead to spectacular storm totals in the central and northern Green Mountains. No promises, but perhaps two feet of new snow on the northern Vermont ski areas between Wednesday and Saturday?

This type of air flow Thursday and Friday can funnel down the Champlain Valley, too. The mountains   on either side of the valley squeeze the air together, which means it has nowhere to go but up. Rising air wrings out moisture. That means it might keep snowing through Friday in the Champlain Valley, albeit not as heavily as in the mountains. (And during the day Friday, the snow could mix with rain in the warm spots.)

This will probably be a rather wet snow throughout, especially in the lower elevations, so some of us might feel like we're shoveling wet cement when we're clearing the (possible!) accumulations Thursday and Friday.

Whether or not this storm pans out, skies will probably partially clear next weekend, and it will stay relatively mild, so you skiers and riders who hated all that February heat can enjoy.

We hope, anyway.

This potential winter storm isn't all fun and games, of course. Travel will be difficult during the snow. And southern and especially coastal New England might really be screwed.

This upcoming nor'easter is unlikely to be nearly as strong as the one that blasted the East Coast Friday and Saturday. It's also unclear where the rain/snow line will set up in southern New England.

Areas of southern New England that end up with snow will get wet and heavy stuff, which would break trees and power lines already weakened by the blast from the last nor'easter.

The winds and waves and storm surge from the upcoming storm won't be nearly as bad as the last storm. But the storm Friday and Saturday eroded away dunes, there's breaches in the dunes and damaged sea walls and there's lots of general damage from those storm surges.

Even weaker surges and waves from the upcoming storm could easily make things down there even worse.