First The Snow, Now The Cold

A big snowbank on the edge of my St. Albans, Vermont
driveway this morning. Sky looks nice, but temperatures
were only in the upper teens, with winds gusting to 30 mph or so.

I've said this before, but I hope you like all the snow that's on the ground in Vermont and other parts of the Northeast and southeastern Canada.

It's going to stick around for awhile.

Here in Vermont, despite all the snow, you might be surprised to learn that March, up until yesterday at least, was warm.

At Burlington, Vermont, each of the first 15 days of the month were warmer than normal, and the first half of March was more than five degrees balmier than average.

Part of the reason was all the clouds. Overcast tends to keep nights warmer. All those slow moving storms gave us lots of cloudy weather. The result was nights that were much warmer than average. Daytimes were generally only slightly warmer than average,

Friday broke a remarkable streak of 30 consecutive days of warmer than normal temperatures in Burlington. Yeah, it's been relatively toasty since mid-February. It's quite rare to have that many days in a row above normal without a break.

Of course, things do tend to even out. So I guess you have to expect some cold weather. Friday marked the start of what will be a long streak of colder than normal days. I hope it doesn't last 30 days, because that would take us into mid-April, which would be depressing.

I do know this just-starting cold streak will last at least a week, likely more, as we're locked into a cold northwest flow of air from way up in northern Canada.

The worst of the cold will come today through Monday. Another Arctic cold front is coming through this Saturday morning. It will bring us some snow showers, but accumulations will be mercifully light. Some places won't get any snow flurries at all. Lucky souls.

But many of us have already reached our high temperature for the day or close to it. (It was 24 degrees at 7 a.m. Saturday in Burlington.) Temperatures will remain steady or even slowly fall today. There might be a very slight uptick in temperatures early this afternoon as the sun comes out, but you won't notice it.

That's because winds from the northwest will gust in many places to over 30 mph, so wind chills will be at or below zero at times.

Tonight in Vermont, temperatures will rocket downward, and be between five below in the colder spots to five above in the "warmer" valleys. It would get even colder, but the wind will keep blowing, so the air will stay mixed. Of course, that adds a wind chill.

Sunday, the sun will be out much of the time (yay!) but it will be like January. Some of us won't even make it past 20 degrees in the afternoon, and that northwest wind will continue to crank Sunday night will be just as cold as tonight will be.

This is all a good 10 to 20 degrees colder than normal. For reference, normal highs this time of year are in the low 40s, with overnight lows typically around the mid-20s.

NOR'EASTER:

This forecast map for next Thursday shows
an intense nor'easter passing a little too
far east of Vermont to have much of an
effect, other than wind. Coastal areas may
see some snow. This forecast is subject to
change, and it's still possible this thing
could hit us. Just not likely at the moment. 

That word scares you, doesn't it? Nor'easter. Shudder. Still, I have to give an update.

The forecast consensus at the moment is that nor'easter we're watching for next week will pass too far south and east of us here in Vermont to have much of an effect.

However, and this is a big however: Don't count this storm out yet. Some computer models do still bring it close enough to give us a decent snowfall.

And this next part is decidedly un-sciency:

My experience with March cold waves, like the kind we're embarking on now, tend to end with snowstorms. Not always, but often. These storms often come from nor'easter that forecasters initially tell us will miss, but then they don't.

I might change my mind, but at this point I give the nor'easter a 40 percent chance of hitting us Wednesday or Thursday.

Even if the storm does miss us, it will keep us in a cold northerly flow. Winds will pick up because of the offshore nor'easter around Thursday. By then, though, temperatures will have warmed up a bit. Still below normal, but better than this weekend.

If you don't like all this snow on the ground, you can take a tiny, tiny bit of heart in this: Despite the bitter cold, you might see a little snow melt in some corners of your property.

The March sun angle is high and the days are longer. Even with temperatures well below freezing, the sun will erode some of the tall snowbanks, and melt a bit of the snow in sunny, protecting corners, like the south side of your house, under pine trees and on some south and west facing slopes.

You have to take anything you can, I guess.