Winters in Vermont Have Gotten Warmer. And Snowier

At least seven feet of snow has come down in Woodford,
Vermont, in the southern Green Mountains this month.

It seems like a paradox: Winters in Vermont have been generally trending warmer in recent decades.

Lately, they've also been getting snowier.

As you well know, many of us are buried in snow today in the lead up to the official start of spring next week.

So far this March, Burlington, Vermont has had 30.1 inches of snow. Even if not so much as one more flake falls this month (ha!) it'll still be the sixth snowiest March on record. Also, if it doesn't snow for the rest of March, April and May, this winter's snowfall will be above average.

VERMONT GETTING SNOWIER?

I looked at annual winter snowfall dating back to 1947 at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont. The average annual snowfall during that period was 80.7 inches.

Since 2001, 14 of the 18 winters had snowfall above that average. (Including the current winter, since we're already up to 84.5 inches for the season.)

It's hard to say whether climate change has anything to do with this. Storms are wetter in a warmer world. So if it's below freezing locally, any given storm could be wetter, which would boost the snowfall totals.

However, it could just as well be some sort of natural cycle. For instance, during the 13 winters from 1966 to 1979, only one winter's snowfall was below the average, and then, just barely.

Three of Burlington's snowiest winters have been since 2000, and another three of the snowiest winters were during that 1960s and 1970s snowy period.

The difference between the 1960s and 1970s and now is that the earlier snowy winters were also generally cold. Most, but not all of the snowy winters in the 2000s have been near normal or warmer than normal, temperature wise.

THE BIG PICTURE

One study that made news this week concluded that big spikes in winter temperatures around the Arctic since 1990 correlate with big winter storms in the northeastern United States.

I usually have a nice sunset view in the evening out my
St. Albans, Vermont windows, but accumulated snow
and snow that slid off the roof ends that idea for now

A team of researchers looked at winter weather patterns dating back to 1950 According to Inside Climate News:

"Their study, published in the journal Nature Communications, links the increased frequency of extreme winter storms with the rapid and persistent warming of the Arctic since around 1990. When temperatures over the Arctic spike, especially high in the atmosphere, extreme winter weather is two to four times more likely in Boston and New York, while the U.S. tends to see warmer and drier conditions, they conclude."

This study doesn't prove that Arctic warmth is causing these northeastern winter storms, but suggests a possible link. Inside Climate News quotes Rutgers University climate researcher Jennifer Francis as saying this study reinforces previous studies that a declining temperature contrast between a fast-warming Arctic and somewhat slower warming mid-latititudes makes the jet stream more wavy.

A more erratic jet stream like this is more likely to cause extreme weather.

Climate change skeptics, like Joe Bastardi, on the other hand, say there have been weather patterns like this before.  And he's absolutely right. March, 1962, for instance, featured Arctic warming and lots of winter storms in the northeastern United States.

However, the question is, are these warm spells in the Arctic becoming more frequent? The science suggests they are.  Which would tend to indicate that we might have other very snowy winters in our Vermont future.

Short term, it looks like the wintry weather is here to stay in Vermont for awhile yet. Not much new snow will fall between now and Monday, with just scattered snow showers and possible brief squalls now and again as Arctic boundaries and disturbances pass through.

However, everybody is still watching out for the possibility of another snowy nor'easter during the middle of next week. It's still way too soon to determine whether that one will hit us, or mercifully slide out to sea too far south to give us more piles of snow to shovel.