Monday Morning Nor'easter Update: Eastern New England Slam; Vermont Impacts

Here's just one forecast for the amount of snow from
the upcoming storm through Wednesday. Anything
in shades of orange is over eight inches. There's
a chance this forecast might be overdoing the
amount of snow in parts of Vermont and New York. 

Here we are, the start of another week, and the discussion turns to...surprise! A big nor'easter.

It's the third biggie in 10 days here in New England, and this one will probably be just as wild as the other two during the day tomorrow.

I'll give you the headlines first and then delve into the details:

1. In Boston parlance, this one on Tuesday is going to be a "wicked pissah" in eastern New England with very heavy snow and strong winds.

2. Although the storm surge with this nor'easter won't be tremendous, because astronomical tides are pretty low this week, the New England coast is extremely vulnerable to nor'easters due to damage from the previous two storms

3. Just as in the last two nor'easters, the impact in most of Vermont won't be as great as points further east. (Yes, I know the last nor'easter really buried southern Vermont) However, the Green Mountain State is still in for a long, long period of snow which will gradually accumulate to decent depths.

THE DETAILS

The overall forecast scenario for this nor'easter's path and strength has changed very little since Sunday, though there's still some questions of the storm's exact track, which will affect how badly any particular area gets.

As the storm gathers, winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories extend from Kentucky, through the Virginias into much of North Carolina. A winter weather advisory extends all the way to the North Carolina coast, as an inch or two of snow will accumulate there this evening

By the way, snow on the North Carolina coast is pretty rare, but not unheard of, for mid-March. The developing nor'easter is still expected to head off the Carolina coast tonight in an east-northeast direction, then turn almost due north.

Snowing ard in Boone, North Carolina early this
morning as the next nor'easter gathers. 

The storm will pass east of Cape Cod during the day Tuesday as a "bomb" meaning it will be intensifying quickly.

At this point at least, this track puts much of the eastern half of Massachusetts, and most of Maine and New Hampshire in the "sweet spot" for snow, with most places in that region getting a good foot of snow. A few places could close in on two feet.

There will be a lot of wind with this as well, so blizzard conditions could develop in eastern New England Tuesday. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas in eastern New England end up under a blizzard warning tomorrow.

Winds on the Massachusetts coast could gust as high as 65 mph amid all this. Bottom line: Don't drive to Boston or Portland or places like that tomorrow. Like I said. Wicked pissah.

Here's an interesting tidbit: In Portland, Maine, three of the top 10 biggest snowstorms have occurred on March 13-14 over the years. This storm there might go in the Top 10, making it four such monster storms on this date.

As I said, the tides during this storm won't be tremendous. But the sand dunes are missing from many vulnerable coastal places in New England, thanks to the last two storms. The dunes would have gradually been at least partly replaced through normal processes over the next several months, but they haven't had a chance to with these repeated storms.

The lack of dunes and the existing damage on the coast means communities there risk further damage from what would otherwise by minor coastal flooding and splashover from waves. Beaches, already badly eroded, will take another nasty hit from this one tomorrow.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Like the last nor'easter, this will be a fairly quick hit in southeastern New England. Not so in Vermont.

During the nor'easter's trip past New England tomorrow, Vermont will be on the western edges of the snow shield. Expect a general two to six inches of new snow across the state on Tuesday, with maybe a little more than that in far southern Vermont. The least snow will fall to the west.

So it won't be like March 13-14 of last year, when western Vermont was bulldozed by a blizzard that dropped up to three feet of snow.

However, like the nor'easter last week, this one will get hung up in the Canadian Maritimes will slowly weakening over time Tuesday night through Friday.

That means lots of mostly light snow will continue through Thursday night. Over time, the snow will become most focused across the northern part of the state and along the spine of the central and northern Green Mountains.

When all is said and done, total snow accumulations from late tonight through Thursday night could easily exceed a foot in parts of northern Vermont, especially the high elevations.

It will probably be windier and colder than last snowy week, so expect some blowing and drifting as well.

CAVEATS:

If this storm goes a little further east than forecast, the snow in Vermont will be even lighter on Tuesday than currently forecast, but we'd still get that lingering light snow Wednesday and Thursday.

If the storm tracks a little closer to New England than forecast, obviously snowfall in Vermont would also be heavier than forecast. If there's a more westward track, eastern Vermont stands the greatest chance of being hit harder than forecast.

OUTLOOK:

The weather pattern looks to remain active basically for the remainder of March. It's impossible to pick out the details of what will happen with each storm, but overall, the chances that it there will be rain or a mix with subsequent storms is rising, as the storm track might go more inland. Also, the baseline temperature is warming up as we head into spring, making rain increasingly likely at the expenes of snow.