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| Still looking at a general six to 12 inch snowstorm in Vermont with this storm, with locally higher amounts, especially in the southern and central Green Mountains. |
That's typical with every nor'easter.
This morning's computer models take the storm a wee bit further to the south and east, which might - maybe - cut down accumulations in northern New York and northwest Vermont a little bit, but there will still be a decent snowfall there.
We're still looking at six to 12 inches of new snow with this winter storm, with higher amounts a good bet in parts of central and southern Vermont.
The biggest change is it now looks like the Phase II of the storm - where the thought was the northern Green Mountains would continue to get blasted Thursday night and Friday - now looks to be not so impressive at all.
An initial band of snow had made it all the way north into southern Vermont this morning, but that's not the main show. As this band lifts north, there will probably be some spotty light snow this morning and the first half of this afternoon just about anywhere, but it'll be mostly nuisance snow, with light accumulations.
Still, I'm a little surprised by how much snow there is coming northward into Vermont this morning ahead of the main storm. This first batch was actually gaining a bit in intensity as of 8:30 a.m. instead of weakening, as many meteorologists thought. This initial snow will probably still peter out somewhat before the main storm.
Still, it just goes to show how unpredictable the picky little details of a nor'easter are.
The main precipitation was gathering over and near New Jersey this morning and beginning to lift north as the nor'easter begins to consolidate and strengthen rapidly.
Heavy wet snow coming down at a torrential clip will affect much of the New York City metro area and on into the lower and mid Hudson Valley and much of Connecticut by this afternoon. Snow down there could come down at a rate of up to two inches per hour, and thundersnow is a fairly good bet. (Should I issue a Jim Cantore Thundersnow Warning?)
The snow should lift steadily northward today, enveloping New England and reaching the Canadian border by dark or a little after that.
The heaviest snow still looks like it will come down tonight and the first part of Thursday before tapering off here in Vermont. (It'll end sooner than that in southern New England.)
National Weather Service forecasts for snow totals have been downgraded a bit but are still impressive.
It's looking like six or seven inches or so in the northwestern part of the state with more than a foot in much of the southern and central Green Mountains. More than a foot is also likely near Albany, in southwestern New Hampshire, western and central Massachusetts, northwest of New York City and down into the Poconos of Pennsylvania.
As always, there will still be surprises here and there, with some places getting more or less than forecast.
The heaviest snow will taper off Thursday morning. However occasional light snow will keep going right through Thursday, Thursday night, Friday and into Saturday.
However, winds won't be as favorable as originally thought to dump lots of snow during this period on the central and northern Green Mountains. Sure, there will be some added accumulations - six inches or more on some of the more favored mountain peaks - but not the foot or two originally envisioned for up in the higher elevations.
In the valleys Thursday afternoon through Saturday, we'll be harassed by occasional snow with light additional accumulations. The sun angle is higher now that it's March, so roadways during the day will probably be just wet due to some melting, but will freeze up again during the nights.
Beyond that, the forecast is naturally fairly uncertain, but there are no signs of any really springlike weather in the foreseeable future.
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