Thursday, September 12, 2013

One More Day Of Rough Weather In Vermont Today

1 p.m. UPDATE:

Another round of severe thunderstorms is just getting going now in central New York, far southern Vermont, the southern half of New Hampshire and points south.

My guess is areas south of a Saratoga, N.Y.--Rutland, Vermont, and Littleton, N.H. line are most likely to be at risk for strong winds, large hail, and even a brief isolated tornado this afternoon.

Already, as of 1 p.m. strong storms have fired up in central New York, along the Massachusetts/Vermont border and in the southern half of New Hampshire. Those storms will continue to increase in size and intensity this afternoon. I'm sure a variety of watches and warnings will go up soon in those areas.

Points to the north of my risk line will continue to get rain. It will probably intensify in many locations, and thunderstorms could mix in. There is a chance some of the more northerly thunderstorms could get to borderline severe proportions, but I don't anticipate anything widespread in that regard.

However, in the northern half of Vermont, and in northern New York and New Hampshire, the rain could come down hard at times, and certain areas could get repeatedly bullseyed with downpours.

Within 25 miles of the Canadian border in Vermont, about two inches of rain fell last evening. If the heavy rain makes it that far north today, that region is probably more under the gun for possible flash flooding than anywhere else.

Radar trends now suggest far northwestern Vermont and the tip of New York could escape the heaviest rains, but that's by no means guaranteed.

Still, any thunderstorm anywhere in New England and New York could bring enough blinding rain to cause local flash floods. So stay tuned for possible alerts and warnings throughout the afternoon and evening.


Yesterday's storms played out about as expected. Some areas really got hammered by damaging storms, while others got away with almost nothing.
Trees and wires were down across a road in
Bristol, Vermont Wednesday after
a severe thunderstorm rolled through. 

Almost everybody in northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire did get a great light show last night from lightning that sometimes seemed to fill the sky.

At first glance from damage reports, it seems the most destructive storms in Vermont yesterday were in the Northeast Kingdom, near and northeast of Lake Willoughby, in eastern Vermont near Bradford, and finally, in the evening, southern Rutland County and much of Windsor County.

We're not out of the woods. As you can tell, it's still very humid, meaning the cold front hasn't gone through. Until it does, we are at risk of strong storms and heavy rain.

Today, since the front is approaching, I think places east of the Green Mountains and south of about Rutland and White River Junction in Vermont are most at risk of severe thunderstorms today.

In those places, the sun will stay out longer, contributing to the instability needed to create strong storms. However, I wouldn't rule out damaging winds or hail in western Vermont or eastern New York, either, but it's less likely.

It was already raining in northwestern Vermont and northern New York. Clouds will hang tough there, and that will help prevent storms from really firing up.

Forecasters are still worried about the "training" thunderstorms we could get today, the situation where a series of torrential downpours goes over the same area, much like box cars on a moving freight train.

Training storms could set off some local flash floods today just about anywhere in eastern New York and New England

Some areas of Vermont, especially near the Canadian border and in some ares in the central parts of the state, got close to two inches of rain in yesterday's storms, which saturated the ground. Those areas might be a little more at risk for flooding.

As I've advertised all week, it's back to autumn tomorrow. Expect highs in the low 60s, which is chillier than the low temperature for the past couple of days. Go figure.

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