The South Moves North Once Again

An outflow boundary from a thunderstorm passing by to the north
helped create thes turbulent looking clouds over St. Albans,
Vermont yesterday.  The boundary produced wind gusts close
to 30 mph at my house, but they oddly weren't cool winds like
you'd expect from normal thunderstorm outflow. 

The Northeast had a terribly Florida type of day Monday, with temperatures in the 90s, humidity levels through the roof, and a few strong storms to boot.

Maine was downright weird. You know Maine in the summer, right?  Cool breezes, comfortable humidity, great sleeping nights, manageable summer rain showers? frigid ocean waters?

Not yesterday.  The waters in the Gulf of Maine are practically bathwater, setting records for high ocean temperatures.  That means marine life is heading north to enjoy those warm waters. That includes sharks.

Tragically, a woman was killed in a shark attack near Bailey Island Maine on Monday.

Those warm waters along the coast of New England are also bad if a stray hurricane comes along later this summer and autumn.  Northboumd hurricanes along the coast weaken because they don't do well in cold water. The warmer the water, the slower a hurricane will weaken, making one that comes along stronger than they otherwise would be if the water was chillier.

Meanwhile, in Portland, Maine, the low temperature Monday was 78 degrees. That is the warmest "low" temperature on record for any date in Portland.

Additionally, a possible tornado hit parts of Somerset and Penobscot Counties in Maine.  Radar images showed some pretty tight rotation in a severe thunderstorm, plus there was tree and wire damage in the area.

The National Weather Service will investigate to see if that was really a tornado.

For those who are easily worried and confused, the possible tornado hit the town of St. Albans, Maine, NOT St. Albans, Vermont, where I live.

The heat was on elsewhere in the Northeast.  It was 97 degrees in Scranton, Pennsylvania, the hottest it's been there in four years.  Hartford, Connecticut got up to 98 degrees.

Ahead of a weak cold front, heat advisories are up along the East Coast today from southwestern Maine to South Carolina.

Here in Vermont, it got up to 93 degrees in Burlington, the 17th day this year it has been in the 90s.  We're still in the running for the most consective days staying continuously above 60 degrees. The wild cards are how warm it stays at night in the second half of the week and into Saturday.

Current forecasts have Burlington's lows just above 60 degrees each night, so we could do it.

Showers and thunderstorms were concentrated across northern Vermont yesterday and last evening, and southern Vermont stayed dry.  However, a decent batch of rain was moving through central and southern Vermont this morning.

Today will be another relatively hot one, with highs in the 80s to around 90 in a few spots. At least the humidity will briefly go down this afternoon.

The humidity will spike up again tomorrow ahead of the next system, but that won't last long.  There could be a few more showers and storms tomorrow, too.

Which is fine. Last evening, a brief heavy downpour passed through St. Albans, Vermont. The rain was almost as warm as bath water. There was no lightning, so it felt safe to stand out in the rain and let it drench me. It felt awesome.

I joke that the rain did wonders for my naturally curly hair.  The joys of summer, I guess.

Hurricane Hanna Causes A Mess, Hot Atlantic Water Spells More Trouble

Debris scattered in Texas due to Hurricane Hanna 

A quick Vermont update at the bottom of this post, but since it's hurricane season and hurricanes are quite appropriately on everybody's mind....  

HURRICANE HANNA:

Hurricane Hanna showed what unusually warm water can do to a developing hurricane.

It's basically jet fuel for such storms.

Such was the case with Hurricane Hanna, which kept getting stronger all the way until it made landfall on the southern Texas coast.

Peak sustained winds were 90 mph, stronger than pretty much everybody anticipated just a day or two earlier.

The storm caused the type of damage you'd expect from such a storm. High winds damaged some structures, more than 280,000 homes and businesses were without power, widespread flooding damaged many other buildings, and embedded tornadoes caused added trouble. A large pier along the coast collapsed. Storm surges flooded parts of downtown Corpus Christi, Texas.

Hanna videos at bottom of this post.

Hanna, now well inland, is fading fast, but still dumping torrential rains and causing a lot more flooding.

OTHER STORMS:

Hanna was no doubt powered by warmer than normal water temperatures, but that's not the only ingredient you need. It's just one of the more important ones.

Case in point is former Tropical Storm Gonzalo. It fired up awfully quickly amid super warm ocean waters, but the sputtered. That's because dry air aloft got pulled into the tiny system and choked off its thunderstorms.  Former Gonzalo is now just a few scattered showers and storms heading into the Caribbean Sea.

So you see, hot water isn't everything.  It is hurricane jet fuel, but only if everthing works on all cylinders, so to speak.

It's certainly early in the hurricane season and forecasters are already watching the next potential Atlantic troublemaker. A growing disturbance way out in the central Atlantic will probably become Tropical Storm Isaias.

Damn name is impossible to spell and even worse to pronounce, but oh well.

Computer models - at least for now - take Wannabe Isaias to near or just off the southeastern United States coast in about a week or so.  The majority of models  seem to take this system out to sea, just missing the U.S., but these long range models are notoriously unreliable.  Anything could happen, so we'll just have to wait and see.

And let's not forget about Hurricane Douglas out in the Pacific!

Hurricane warnings are up for many of the Hawaiian Island.  Douglas this morning was a little more tha 200 mies east of Honolulu with top sustained winds of 90 mph.

It'll continue to slowly weaken as it approaches the islands, but will probably still be a hurricane as it passes through Hawaii. It's not weakening that fast because, in part, water temperatures heading toward the islands are not as cool as they usually are.

Trees and infrastructure aren't really designed to hold up against strong winds in much of Hawaii, so this could be a real troublemaker

Even if Douglas doesn't go directly over any of the islands, it will be close enough to cause hurricane force gusts through downsloping forces along mountains, or winds funnel through valleys.  The upper floors of Honolulu high rises risk lots of shattered windows, too, because winds near the top floors will be stronger than at street level.

Flash flooding will be a real hazard, too at least for the rest of the day

VERMONT UPDATE

Yeah, it's pretty hot out there, despite some morning clouds in the northern  half of the state that temporarily slowed today's warming. Warmer valleys still  have a shot of getting to 90 degrees today, despite some lingering partial clouds.

We'll need to watch a so-called "ridge runner" late this afternoon and early evening along the International Border. This is a disturbance that is running over the top of a hot dome of air in the middle of the nation through the Great Lakes and into Ontario.

It'll move east to southeastward into southern Quebec and eventually western Maine later today. Some of the thunderstorms with this thing could creep south to just along the border between Quebec and Vermont later today, and a couple storms could be strong, especially in the Northeast Kingsdom.

Other little "ridge runners" might affect us with scattered showers and storms late tonight and again Monday afternoon and evening.  The biggest "threat" from these will probably be locally torrential downpours. Some places won't get any rain and all. It'll be the usual hit and miss type stuff.

It's possible clouds tomorrow will hold temperatures below 90 in the north, but even if that happens, it'll be ridiculously humid, so it will be uncomfortable.

Just like last Tuesday, a weak cold front will come through this Tuesday with a risk of some showers and storms, and gradually lowering humidity starting later on Tuesday. We hope.

Videos:

News video summarizing the storm.  Love the transition from official telling people to stay inside during the storm and then cutting immediately to ABC report in the eye of the storm:



Lots of debris in the water on the Corpus Christi waterfront:

Rinse And Repeat: Storms Again, Mostly South, More Tropical Trouble

A little humid air and a little light rain help add a bit of color
to my St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

It seems like the Burlington-area anti rain force field broke down a little bit this morning, as I've noticed a fairly nice downpour passed through the Queen Cith this morning.

Up here in St. Albans, it did rain a little, so I'll take it.

Meanwhile, the tropics are bubbling with activity.  I'll get into that in a bit, but before that, let's get into the local stuff first.

VERMONT RAIN PROSPECTS/WARMTH

It would be nice if it rained more, but I think northern Vermont is mostly done with the rain today, save for a scattering of showers and storms - the  hit and miss kind - this afternoon.

Like yesterday the real action in the thunderstorm department will be south. Though this time, more of Vermont looks to be involved.

Central and southern New England, including southern and eastern Vermont and southern New Hampshire, are in the NOAA' Storm Prediction Center's slight risk zone for severe thunderstorms today.

That's the second of five alert levels and means there is the possibility of scattered severe storms, but nothing widespread.

The rest of Vermont, and most of  the rest of northern New England is in a marginal risk zone, which means there might be an isolated severe storm here and there.

Basically, the clouds and rain in northern Vermont and New York stabilized the atmosphere, making it harder, but not impossible, for afternoon showers and storms to develop.  Central and southern Vermont didn't get into this morning's rain. There will be a little more sun there this morning, which could help encourage afternoon storms

After today's storms go by, there's no precipitation in the offing until at least later Sunday. We have another toasty weekend ahead, with daytime highs in the 80s, with maybe a spot 90 here and there.

The following is still a bit uncertain, but we have a shot - just a chance - early next week of having the coolest spell of weather since mid-June.  If this comes to pass, it won't be chilly by any means, but there might be a few days in there that don't even make it to 80 degrees in the afternoon, and Champlain Valley nighttime temperatures could go below 60 degrees.

In other words, we have a round of average summer weather coming up for a change.

This coolish spell is likely to end prospects for Burlington to have its longest stretch of consecutive days that stayed above 60 degrees, but we will probably have the second longest such stretch.

According to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, the longest stretch of continous above 60 days was 37 in 1898.  The second longest stretch was 30 days in 1988.

As of yesterday, we're up to 27 days, and it most likely won't go below 60 through Sunday

TROPICS: GONZALO, WANNABE HANNA AND DOUGLAS

Tropical Storm Gonzalo, as expected, got going way out in the Atlantic yesterday, but its future is highly questionable.

As of now, the National Hurricane Center expects to become a hurricane for awhile, then maybe weaken as it enters the Caribbean Sea.

However, as noted yesterday, Gonzalo is a tiny little thing. It doesn't take much to disrupt a small storm.

Several meteorologists noticed this morning that an intrusion of dry air had disrupted Gonzalo's circulation early this morning.  That might hinder any intensification. We shall see.

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico I dismissed yesterday as a nothingburger now seems poised to become a tropical storm. If it does do that, they'll name it Hanna.

If Hanna forms as expected, it will be the earliest eight storm of the season on record.  The old record for earliest "H" storm was on August 3, 2005.

Meanwhile, we have a sleeper in the form of Hurricane Douglas. I call it a sleeper because it hasn't been really getting a lot of attention.

But it should.

Douglas is way out in the Pacific Ocean heading west away from distant Mexico.  Top winds this morning were 120 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The problem is, it's heading toward Hawaii.  Douglas will weaken over cooler waters as it approaches Hawaii, but it will still be a low end hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time it gets there.

Hawaii seems to have gotten more prone to tropical storms in recent years and decades.   Due to natural ocean currents, the water is coolish around Hawaii, which tends to kill hurricanes. Such storms thrive on hot water.

However, the oceans around Hawaii aren't as cold as they used to be, in large part due to climate change.  Which means if all other things being equal, hurricanes and tropical storms near Hawaii don't tend to weaken as fast ast they used to.

Back in the Atlantic, yes, it's been a very busy start to the hurricane season, but the power of the storms have been overwhelming.

But this hurricane/tropical storm season isn't nearly as dramatic and active as the first part of the notorious 2005 season (which eventually brought us such disasters as Katrina and Rita).

There's a measure of how active a hurricane season is something called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE.  It's a measure of how intense a particular hurricane season is based on the intensity and longevity of each tropical storm or hurricane.

Though we have a record number of storms this year, they've all been rather weak and short lived. According to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist and expert on Atlantic hurricanes.

The ACE number so far in the Atlantic Ocean is eight as of yesterday. Normal for this time of year is seven, so it's close.  In the notorious 2005 season, ACE was already up to 56.

Even if Gonzalo turns into a dud and Hanna turns out to be a weakling, the ACE count will probably increase to a little above average in the next few days.

Shower Chances, Maybe Strong South, Tropics Turning Active

Hanging baskets looking to the clouds and waiting for rain recently
on my back deck in St. Albans, Vermont. Flower and structural
design by my husband, Jeff Modereger

It's still not nearly as wet as I'd like it to be here in Vermont as the trend in below normal rainfall has continued since it at least April.

There are chances for showers and storms off and on through next week.  But I don't see anything major at this point. It also appears  - for now, anyway - that the imaginary anti-rain force in the Champlain Valley is holding strong.

Shower and storm chances look best for the next couple of days outside the Champlain Valley, though we can hold out some hope a stray shower will hit there, too.

There's actually a chance of strong to severe storms today in far southern Vermont and points south of there through southwestern New England down into the Middle Atlantic states.  High winds are the biggest threat in this broad area of severe storm risk, though an isolated, brief tornado can't be ruled out.

Further north, there might be a rumble or two of thunder, but nothing huge. Already this morning, a narrow band of showers has dampened a good chunk of southern Vermont, but that was moving out.

By later today and this evening, there will be a good shot at some showers outside the Champlain Valley.  In the valley, there will probably be some patches of rain, but the chances are there are a little less than elsewhere in the state, at least in my opinion.

It looks like more showers and storms will form tomorrow, but again, the best coverage seems like it could be outside the Champlain Valley.  It's not that northwestern Vermont will miss out on the rain. That area will almost certainly get some.  Just not as much as points south and east.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has all of Vermont of most of the Northeast in a marginal risk zone for severe storms on Thursday. That means there might be isolated incidents of strong, damagiing wind gusts, but nothing widespread.

The next real chance of rain in Vermont after tomorrow will come along on Sunday.  No guarantees on how much that will amount to, but all the meteorologists will surely keep an eye on that.

TROPICAL TROUBLE

Hurricane experts have ramped up the alarm bells about this year's hurricane season potential, given the unusually warm waters in much of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes tend to form. Other atmospheric factors still favor a lot of storms. Even worse, the current weather pattern, it it holds, would tend to steer storms toward the United States.

Summertime clouds not quite getting their act together enough
to produce showers this past Monday over St. Albans, Vermont.

We've already had hints of a troublesome year, since we're way ahead of normal in terms of how many tropical storms have already formed. There's already been six, but thankfully, they've all tended to be pretty weak.

Stronger hurricanes tend to get going in August and September, and you should expect the tropics to start becoming more active right about now.

The tropics certainly got that memo. Probably by the time you read this, Tropical Storm Gonzalo will have formed way out in the central Atlantic.  From there it will move west toward the Caribbean Sea, but exactly where and at what strength is anybody's guess

Wannabe Gonzalo is a tiny, cute little thing spinning out there.  Tropical systems that are small in size are notoriously hard to forecast, both in terms of strength and direction.  When such a storm is tiny, just a little bit of dry air intruding or a few gusts of strong upper level winds can tear it apart and kill it.

On the other hand, a tiny storm can defy predictions and cloak itself in its own protective shield of moisture, and strengthen quickly.   Right now the National Hurricane Center is taking, in my opinion, a correct conservative approach and just maintaining Wannabe Gonzalo as a tropical storm right through the weekend.  They'll surely change and update this forecast in the coming days.

It's possible Wannabe Gonzalo could pose a United States threat next week, but that is a big question mark right now.

Another weaker tropical type system is lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.  It's unlikely to become a tropical storm, though some computer models think it will strengthen to that level.  It's headed toward Texas, and will give parts of that state a deep soaking this coming weekend.

Another batch of storms that will move off the west coast of Africa in the next few days will also have to be watched in case it turns into an eventual threat.

Flash Flood Update: Damage, But Could Have Been Woirse

Haile remained piled up in Sanford, Maine after Tuesday morning's
intense hail storm. 

I'm sure there are plenty of residents around eastern Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine trying to restore washed out driveways and damp basements in the wake of yesterday's flash flooding.

There is a fair amount of damage here and there, but it could have been worse, considering how hard the rain came down.  It seems like it let up just in time to prevent any kind of catastrophe.

Still, water flowed into two operating rooms at a hospital in Woodsville, New Hampshire, forcing the cancelation of two surgeries. Several roads in that area were closed by flooding.

In Vermont, storm reports include an eight by six foot section of road washed out in East Cabot, and another washed out road near St. Johnsbury.  St. Johnsbury itselt reported 1.83 inches of rain Tuesday. In Bradford, Vermont, about 3.5 inches of rain fell in less than six hours.

The most dramatic of the storms occured in southwestern Maine, where hail fell so heavily in some spots that snow plows were called out. A car dealership in Sanford, Maine ended up with more than 1,000 cars sustaining hail damage. 

A couple videos of the Maine hail storm at the bottom of this post.

In northwestern Vermont, the anti-rain force field held, as usual.  Not a drop of rain fell here in St. Albans, and just a trace was reported in Burlington.

The next shot of rain comes Thursday night as a weather front approaches from the west, then kind of washes out over or just past us. It still has enough oomph to give us at least a shot of some showers and scattered thunder Thursday night and Friday.

Videos:

Here's what the hail storm looked like in Biddeford, Maine:


A drive through the part of Maine that got hit by that hail storm.  Notice the ice accumulation and hail fog.  This dense fog often forms right after a hail storm as the hail cools the humid post-storm air near the ground.

Flash Flood In A Drought? Happens Often, Actually. Even Here In Vermont

Flash flooding in Burlington, Vermont back in 2012. Very localized
flash flooding can occur even during very dry conditions,
if the downpour is torrential enough. 

I've been whining since at least May about how dry it is here in Vermont and surrounding areas.

Despite a bit of recent rain, the southern half of Vermont is in a moderate drought, while the northern half is abnormally dry, not quite a drought, according to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor. 

So why does the subject of flash flooding keeping popping up during this weather regime?

The reason: Tis the season for local downpours. It's the summer doldrums, when the humidity is highest and scattered thunderstorms often move very slowly, or sometimes not at all.

The best way to end a drought or a dry spell is to get an area wide, steady, soaking rain.  A torrential downpour will mostly just run off.

We've seen that a few times already this summer in Vermont.  The more intense thunderstorm rains can overwhelm the drainage in a particular area pretty quickly.  Plus, if the thunderstorm parks itself over a particular spot for an hour or two instead of moving on as usual, the rain can get pretty extreme.

We saw some flash flooding around Starksboro in late June from a stalled thunderstorm while surrounding towns remained dry.  I spotted some minor flash flooding in downtown St. Albans during last week's thunderstorms.  A flash flood warning went up very early Sunday morning for a small area of the Adirondacks due to a pocket of heavy rains.

You'll get a situation where it  rains so hard and so fast in one town that there's washouts and high water on small streams.  Meanwhile, two towns away, people are watering their dusty, wilting gardens.

The reason I bring all this up today is that, interestingly, the National Weather Service's daily Excessive Rain Outlook puts almost all of Vermont and New Hampshire, northern New York, western Maine and central New England in a slight risk zone for flash flooding over the next 24 hours.

A slight risk zone means there's a 10 to 20 percent chance of rainfall heavy enough to trigger flash flooding within 25 miles of any point within the slight risk zone.

These risk levels are akin to severe thunderstorm risks. Both are a five point scale going from marginal, to slight, to elevated, to moderate to high risk. So Vermont is at level two of a five point scale later today and tonight.

As the slight risk implies, there might well be no flash flooding. Based on current forecasts, there might be a few areas in Vermont that actually get  no rain at all between now and tomorrow.

Most of us will see some showers and storms as an upper level disturbance moves slowly into the region.  Moisture will feed into this from the southeast, forecasters are telling us. Also, an upper level disturbance consists of a pool of colder air aloft, so the temperature contrast will increase between ground level and several thousand feet above of us. That encourages showers to form.

If any locally torrential rains develop at all, I bet any instances of that would be isolated at most. The forward motion of the showers and storms will be slow, which is why there's that slight risk guidance on flash floods.

While the the National Weather Service's  U.S. level guidance has that slight risk of a pocket or two of flash flooding around here, the local office of the National Weather Service in South Burlington is less bullish with the idea.

The local office definitely has showers and a few isolated thunderstorms in the forecast today thruogh Tuesday, there's no mention of torrential rains. The South Burlington office of the NWS in this morning's forecast discussion correctly describes the expected showers as beneficial, as we definitely need the rain.

The bottom line: Most of us should see some rains in the next 24 hours that won't amount to anything too spectacular.  There's a low risk somebody could get unlucky with too much water.

The Stresses Of A Hot, Humid, And Very Iffy Summer Roll On

Part of my St. Albans, Vermont gardens this morning. At the time
they were getting a brief drink of water from a passing
shower, which pleased both me and the flowers. 

Yesterday and today are continuing the humid cat and mouse game with storms drenching just a few people with needed rain while others miss out.

I've been saying the same all summer, I do realize. Call it Rinse (Not) and Repeat.

I managed to collect just over a third of an inch of rain at my St. Albans, Vermont hacienda Saturday, mostly from one rain band associated with former Tropical Storm Fay, plus one brief relatively heavy shower that happened to luckily bullseye my place early Saturday afternoon.

So it helped, but I wanted more. As I write this Sunday morning, I am getting a brief moderate additional rain shower, so that brightens my mood a bit.

Even so, Saturday evening, I watched longingly as a parade of thunderstorms moved northward through the eastern Adirondacks.  The clouds looked thick and rich with rain, rumbles of thunder grumbled in the distance.  But no more rain for me, despite the air you can wear feel from the humidity.

At least I was out enjoying my gardens, right?

It was like this through much of New England and northern New York.  Some pockets got really nailed.

Flash flood warnings were up early today in parts of the central Adirondacks due to a small zone of heavy overnight rain there.  A tornado touched down Saturday afternoon in western Maine, near Sebago Lake. Flood advisories were up for a time near Saratoga, New York Saturday.

Today, the humidity rolls on. The risk of showers, though, is diminishing for the rest of today, but some will still roam around, given the humidity.

More hit and miss kind of stuff will be around on Monday, too.

There is the prospect of a brief break in the humidity later Monday into Wednesday before it gets sticky again.  Tuesday night, Burlington's temperature might actually drop below 60 degrees for the first time since June 25.

I don't know what the record is for the longest stretch we've stayed above 60, but we're already at 16 consecutive days through Saturday. That's an unusually lengthy stretch for such warm nights.

Signs point to a return to sticky warm to hot weather by the end of the week. It's unclear if it's just going to be muggy and warm (highs in the 80s) or downright hot (90s) by next weekend. We'll just have to wait and see.

Most of the nation except for the Pacific Northwest is very hot and in most cases humid,. It's been like that for weeks, and this state of affairs looks like it will continue most of the rest of the month.

As we all know, it's an incredibly stressful summer for most of us, given the unrelenting coronavirus pandemic, economic crisis, racial tensions and failures of leadership.

Hot, humid weather tends to make people more stressed, anxous and angry, so this isn't helping.  The nationwide heat wave is causing droughts to worsen worringly  in some parts of the South and Southwest.

In other parts of the country, the heat and humidity is the spark for destructive storms, bringing pockets of flash flooding, hail, a few tornadoes and the constant drumbeat of storm watches, warnings and advisories. Which doesn't help the moods of most people.

Last evening, after a day at work, I was tense, hot, frustrated and angry, even though I should consider myself lucky I have a job.   My gardens did cool off my temper, if not my body, even as I longed for the rain and thunder I was seeing across Lake Champlain from my house.

The gardens do help, and I'm thankful I have them.

I hope you all have a refuge like I do.  Or are able to create one.  It doesn't have to be a garden, just someplace where you can find peace and forget about everything.

Please find your own refuge from the heat, the storms, and the stress 2020 will forever be known for. You deserve it.

Storm Damage Widespread In Vermont; Now The Heat

Severe warned storm on approach to Sheldon, Vermont Wednesday.
The storm toppled trees and power lines in this and other
Vermont towns. 

We had the wildest storm outbreak of the season on Wednesday here in Vermont, with some welcome rains, but also some pretty substantial damage from severe weather.

Most of the damage involved trees and power lines, but siding was damaged on a house in Essex, there were reports of structural damage around Danby, and sidiing damaged by hail the size of ping pong balls in Fair Haven.

The pattern of damage in New England almost exactly matched the area that was under a severe thunderstorm warning.  The warning, and areas of damage were almost exclusively across Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine.

In northern Vermont, the main swath of damage seemed to go on a long track starting in Alburgh and Swanton, continuing to through Sheldon an into eastern Franklin County around Bakersfield and Fairfield. It continued on through eastern Chittenden County,especailly around Essex, Jericho and Bolton, then into the Fayston/Moretown/Waitsfield area in central Vermont.

At least the storms brought some welcome rain.  I was on the edge of the damaging swath that went from Swanton through Sheldon and on into the Bakersfield area.  There was no wind damage on my St. Albans property, but my rain gauge collected a healthy 1.3 inches of rain in less than an hour. I noticed a fair amount of street flooding in downtown St. Albans.

CITIZEN SCIENTISTS HELP

Another view of the severe  thunderstorm in Sheldon, Vermont
on Wednesday 

By the way, the damage reports are a great example of how citizen scientists can help the National Weather Service improve forecasts.

Yesteday was a great example.  NWS meteorologist can't be all over the state, observing ongoing thunderstorms.  

They looked at radar trends with these storms, and issued severe thunderstorm warnings when radar images they were looking at indicated danger in these storms.

If you report damage from a storm to the National Weather Service, it helps verify their forecasts and  improves warnings.

For instance, if a bunch of damage reports come in from an area under a servere thunderstorm warning, that helps meteorologists understand there really is danger if they see similar radar trends in the future.

On the other hand, if a certain radar pattern seems to indicate dangerous storms, but that particular pattern never seems to yield real-life damage reports, then maybe that radar pattern doesn't really reflect threatenin weather.

There are a few general ground rules when reporting storms. First of all, do it only when it's safe. Don't go outside to measure the size of the downed tree if the wind is still blowing a million miles an hour and the hail falling is the size of canned hams, as David Letterman would put it.

When reporting the storm damage, be specific. To the best of your ability, tell the National Weather Service exactly what happened and where, and what time. If you have GPS coordinates great, report those, but most of us don't have that ability.

So report something like this:  "Large tree down on wires at 25 Main Street, Funkytown, Vermont, power is out. Occured at 4:15 p.m. ."  Sending along photos helps.  Don't bother reporting minor damage, like a three inch long dead twig coming off the old maple.

Definitely have a "just the facts ma'am" attitude when reporitng.  Don't complain that the power outage interrupted the season finale of "Real Housewives of Enosburg Falls"

It's probably wise not to telephone the National Weather Service office when they're busy issuing warnings -- too distracting. Call though, if it's an extreme issue, like a tornado touchdown happening in front of you.

I tend to tweet my reports to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. It's @NWSBurlington.   The more citizen reports of legitimate storm danage reported to the NWS the better.

Reporting on storms isn't limited to summer thunderstorms. Also report wind damage, snow, ice, flooding during any season.

ON TO THE FORECAST

As we have been advertising, it's going to be a really hot, oppressive couple of days. Yesterday's storms freshened the air last night, but that's over. Expect high humidity and temeratures in the low 90s both today and Friday.   Tonight will be stuffy for sure.

The weather people are still watching a disturbance that's now near the coast of North Carolina. There's a good chance it will turn into Tropical Storm or Subtropical Storm Fay.

Wannabe Fay will track northward just off the East Coast, but the devil is in the details.  We know it will affect southern and coastal New England, but that's about it.

It leads to what the National Weather Service in South Burlington calls a tricky weekend forecast for Vermont. Some computer models take Wannabe Fay just off the east coast of New England, or over Providence and Boston.

A few computer models take it inland in New Jersey, then up New York's Hudson River Valley and through Vermont. That path still seems rather unlikely, but would give us a good, benefitical soaking rain.

Remember, even if Wannabe Fay develops into a tropical storm, it won't be a powerhouse in terms of wind  Heavy rain is a threat, not wind.

Meanwhile, another weather disturbance will be approaching from the west. That will dance with either Wannabe Fay or the deep tropical moisture it brings north into New England.

How this plays out is anybody's guess, but at least it gives us a high chance of showers over the weekend.  We certainly could use more rain, even after yesterday's storms.  If the rain is locally torrential, though, there could be a couple spot instances of flash flooding.

Although clouds and showers will keep temperatures below 90 degrees over the weekend, the humidity will still be awful.  Remember, Wannabe Fay is bringing deep tropical air north into New England.

On top of that, once all the showers clear our early next week, we're still definitely at risk for another hot, dry spell late next week.

Vermont Is The New Florida - Continued

A strong thunderstorm over Lake Champlain last summer, More
potentially strong to severe storms are firing up todau. 

If the headline on this post seems familiar, it's because I wrote a similar headline in this blog thingy back in late June.

The heat and humidity has been pretty consistent since the third week in June. On and on it goes.

As uncomfortable as it is, at least there's some rain chances.  Believe it or not, that rain prospect is in part due to the influence of a possible tropical depression. or storm.  Yes, that sounds like Florida, too.   I'll get to that in a bit.

Burlington got to 89 degrees yesterday, just missing the chance to notch yet another 90 degree day this summer.  Don't worry, it looks like there will be two more days above 90 degrees this week. Um, yay?

Today would reach 90 degrees if not for a disturbance coming through that will touch off a fair numer of showers and storms.  We need the rain, still. Especially in the northwestern part of the state. Of course, the far northwest has the lowest chances of rain with this, though there's still roughly even odds.

It was frustrating here in St. Albans, Vermont early this morning with a couple flashes of lightning and claps of thunder, but the rain with that storm blew by just to my north.

The showers and storms with this incoming disturbance fired up in Quebec pretty early - before noon. They're moving southeast as of early afternoon and other pop ups are forming in New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

A few storms, especially from the Champlain Valley east, could be strong or locally severe, with strong, gusty winds, hail, torrential downpours and lightning. Lightning detector maps were already showing lots of lightning as of 2 p.m. All of Vermont, New Hampshire and most of Maine is under a severe thunderstorm watch until 10 p.m.

Storms should wind down this evening

ON WITH THE HEAT

The core of the latest burst of heat will be over us Thursday and Friday. Heat advisories are up in the Champlain Valley for Thursday and Friday.  And in many places around the Great Lakes and Northeast, too.

Highs will get into the 90s for most of us both days.  Humidity will be even higher than it was during that horrible June heat wave.

An interesting thing might happen with the heat Friday, and may worsen it.  A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form off the South Carolina coast soon and move northward.

It'll never get that strong, but as it approaches coastal New England Friday, it will pump up the hot ridge of high pressure over northern New England, northern New York and Quebec. That, in turn,  has the potential for boosting temperatures even higher. It's not definite, but it's possible we'll see highs in the mid to upper 90s in some of the hotter spots Friday.

It depends on clouds and the path of that tropical or subtropical system.

WAIT, TROPICAL STORM?

Yes, I did say tropical storm.  If wannabe Tropical Storm Fay develops, it would most likely track toward southeastern New England, or offshore.

It would bring a slug of torrential rains to southern and eastern New England, and perhaps some gusty winds. Wannabe Fay will probably go to far east to directly affect most of Vermont.

However, it will bring added tropical moisture into Vermont, just as another disturbance approaches for the west.

At this point, it appears this situation will give us a terribly oppressive weekend with sky high humidity. But this scenario could also give us numerous showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening, and maybe into Sunday.

The good news is if this pans out, we'll get some beneficial rains.  A bit of potential bad news is some slow moving storms this weekend could cause some local flash floods. We certainly don't know that for sure yet, but it's something to keep an eye on.

THEN DO WE GET RID OF THE HEAT?

The answer is no.  But you kind of knew that, right?

We do get a temporary reprieve.  That disturbance which could give us the rains over the weekend will probably "cool" us off to readings early next week that are only a little warmer than average. It will still be a little uncomfortable because the humidity won't totally crash. But it will definitely be better.

Not for long, it looks like. Early indications are another burst of high heat and humidity could surge into northern New England during the second half of next week.

Sigh.

Rain Winners And Losers Continue In New England

A nice thunderstorm Sunday in the Adirondacks looms over homes in
Burlington, Vermont's Old North End, promising rain in parched
backyard gardens there. Alas the storm dissipated on approach
to Burlington, so only sprinkles hit those gardens 

The dry weather continues in New England, despite some local downpours that went way over the top in a few places on Sunday.

Thunderstorms and downpours sprouted all over the place, as expected, on Sunday.  While some towns got oodles of needed rain, other places went dry. Or only got a sprinkle.

A nice looking thunderstorm with heavy rain approached dusty Burlington, Vermont Sunday afternoon, but of course it dissipated on its way to town.

Only 0.03 inches of rain fell there Sunday. So far in June, Burlington is one of the really dry places with only 0.74 inches in June through yesterday. There should have been 3.44 inches by now.

Unless some great rains fall today and/or tomorrow, this will be one of Burlington's driest Junes on record.

Here in St. Albans, Vermont, I got about a quarter inch of rain overnight Saturday night, but just sprinkles during the day.

Elsewhere, a handful of places got bullseyed. More than an inch of rain fell around Stowe, and good chunks of Rutland and Windsor counties had nearly an inch of rainfall.

In Southern New England, a few places got too much of a good thing.  Flash flooding after five inches of rain in a couple of hours forced evacuations at a Norwood, Massachusetts hospital.

Today, tomorrow and to an extent Wednesday will be rinse (for some) and repeat (for all) as that upper level low parks itself near us.

In much of Vermont, including here in St. Albans, it was awfully murky this morning with lots of fog and a little drizzle.  Some of that will lift today but it will remain cloudy. Enough sunlight and warmth will get through the clouds to trigger more showers, and maybe a thunderstorm or two, especially this afternoon.

The weird part of today's showers and storms is that here in Vermont, they will move slowly from east to west, opposite the usual direction summer showers and storms move.

This is because the upper level low is a bit to our south.  Wind around any storm in the northern hemisphere goes counterclockwise. Since we're north of the storm, winds are generally from the east, so that's the way the showers get pushed.

As noted, the rain today will be hit and miss, but the best chances for good downpours are in the Northeast Kingdom, with progressively lighter amounts, at least in most places, as you head west and south.

Overall, though, it will be kind of an unpleasant day for summer. Which is OK, we could use any rain we can get. Temperatures will stay on the cool side (upper 60s and low 70s for most of us), there will be some occasionally stiff north breezes, and don't count on much sun.

Again, I'm fine with that, as long as it really rains. And the cool breezes are a big improvement over the oppressive heat last week.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will bring more of the same, with perhaps a few more breaks of sun, and temperatures slightly warmer than today.

A Little Rain Came Today, Still Could Use A Soaker

Before this morning's rain, we had a breezy, summery evening
Wednesday in St. Albans, Vermont.

It was nice to wake up in St. Albans, Vermont today to the sound of some morning showers moving through. It wasn't anything too heavy, but enough that for once I probably don't have to irrigate the gardens today.

There is a shot at a little more rain as a cold front comes through around early to mid afternoon, but it will probably be hit and miss.

It continues to be drier than it should be for June.  As of midnight, Burlington has had only a quarter inch of rain so far this month, which is an inch below normal.

It hadn't really rained in Burlington yet  today as of 7 a.m., but some showers looked like they would go through that neck of the woods.

I mentioned a threat of severe thunderstorms today in Vermont, and I suppose that might happen here and there, but there won't be anything widespread.  Depending upon how much sun breaks out after the early showers, there might be enough instability to trigger some pretty good, but spotty storms.

This morning's showers might have stabilized the air a bit, which would - maybe - lower the already relatively low chance of severe storms.

If the rambunctious storms do develop, it would come mostly between noon and 5 p.m, earliest in New York and the Champlain Valley.  The best chance of severe storms would probably be in eastern Vermont during the mid to perhaps late afternoon.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center as of early this morning had all of Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe storms.  That's the lowest of five alert levels. It means there's a possibility of isolated severe storms, but they'd be limited in duration and coverage.

After today, there doesn't appear to be much chance of more rain for several days.  Another cold front Friday afternoon will probably set off a smattering of showers, but don't look for anything major.

A storm in the upper atmosphere is likely to set up somewhere in the eastern United States over the weekend. At this point,  it looks like it will be too far south to give Vermont much precipitation.  There's always the chance it could pull a surprise and set up further north, but for now, the heavy rain associated with that system looks like it will hit places like Virginia and North Carolina.

So drink up today's water from the sky, dear garden plants.  Looks like I'll be attacking you with the hose in the coming days.

And You Thought The Mother's Day Weekend Snow In Vermont Was Weird

Traffic cam of Interstate 80 in Laramie, Wyoming. Yes, this was
taken this morning, June 9

It's June 9. Practically summer.

Imagine waking up to this on your morning weather report:

Winter storm warning....Heavy wet snow. Additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, Total accumulations of 5 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph....Impacts: Some power lines and numerous tree branches will be down. Roads will be slushy and snowcapped, and icy in spots especially over bridges."

That was the state of affairs in Laramie Wyoming this morning, as very odd weather continues to hit the West and parts of the northern Plains.

Snow fell from Washington to Montana and south to Colorado over the past couple of days.  Snowfalls in the Rocky Mountains happen almost yearly in June, but this one is more extreme than usual, that's for sure.

Ski resorts in much of Colorado had fresh powder this morning. Snow plows were clearing slush and ice of Interstate 70 in Loveland Pass, Colorado, west of Denver.

This is all part of a very stormy pattern over the north central United States. The remnants of Cristobol continue moving through the Midwest toward the western Great Lakes and Canada, carrying a flood threat with it.

A separate storm that will eventually merge with former Cristobal is creating an odd wind storm in Kansas and Nebraska. Winter and early spring storms often carry widespread 60 to 70 mph wind gusts with them, but those storms don't happen in June.

This one IS  happening in June with forecasted wind gusts in that 60-75 mph range. Leafless trees in the winter don't fall as easily as ones with leaves.  The leaves act like little sails in strong winds, which will  pull down a lot of branches and trees in the central Plains today.

By the way, a few tornadoes are also likely today in parts of eastern Kansas and Nebraska, and in Illinois and surrounding states.

Back in Laramie, meanwhile winter redux will come to an abrupt end later this morning. They're expecting a high temperture of 57 degrees there today under increasing sunshine.  That's still chilly for this time of year - normal highs this time of year in Laramie are around 70 degrees - but at least the snow will melt quickly.

Some videos:

Nighttime video of snow laden trees and power flashes from  branches falling on lines in or near Laramie:



In a rather high elevation spot in Colorado this morning:

Another Weather Off The Rails Weekend (Not In Vermont, Though)

From 9 News:  A severe thunderstorm associated with a derecho
knocked this billboard down on a Denver building Saturday. 

As we forecasted yesterday morning, weather is definitely going off the rails in different parts of the nation this weekend, and that trend will continue for the next few days.

We here in Vermont will pretty much be an island of tranquility in the weather department, but that won't be the case elsewhere.

The most remarkable weather event Saturday was a long lasting derecho that got going near the Arizona/Utah border and raced north and northeastward during the day through the central and eastern Rocky Mountains and on into the western Dakotas.

Derechos are relatively rare events and almost unheard of in the Intermountain West. Yes, I know we just had a derecho in Pennsylvania and New Jersey last week, but they still don't happen all that often.

On average derechos happen once every year or every other year in much of the Midwest and South. On the East Coast, you average one every four years or so.  In the Intermountain West, there have maybe been a handful over the past several decades.

The one that swept through yesterday was a doozy, too, judging by wind reports. Just a sampling:

110 mph near Copper Mountain, Colorado
94 mph Butte County, South Dakota
92 mph near Cactus Plateau, South Dakota
85 mph, Four Corners, Wyoming

There were numerous reports of gusts above 75 mph, including in metro areas like Denver.

Meanwhile, Florida got in on the action, thanks to Tropical Storm Cristobal.  Most of the heavy weather with this system was east of its center.  This mass of storms spun off at several tornadoes in Florida, including one that passed through Orlando.

The Orlando Sentinel reported that at least 50 residents of apartment blocks and houses were displaced near the city's downtown because of tornado damage.

MORE ROUGH WEATHER COMING

Tropical Storm Cristobal will splash ashore around Louisiana later today. Storm surges and flooding is already happening in Louisiana and Mississippi, and that will continue the rest of the day.

However, the bigger drama from Cristobal will come over the next few days, as its remnants head north through the Arkansas, Missouri and into Wisconsin by Wednesday.

It won't really be a tropical storm by the time it hits the Great Lakes, but it will manage to intensify. It'll form into a mean storm for this time of year over or near Lake Superior.  Expect reports of wind damage, battering waves and erosion on the lakes and maybe some flash flooding.

VERMONT CALM

All this weather action will pretty much miss Vermont. The fact that Cristobol will be going by to our west will give us a squirt of warm to hot, and windy weather midweek, but nothing extreme.  Not a lot of rain is in the forecast either.  A cold front associated with the remnants of Cristobol might bring a few showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night and Thursday.

Transition Out Of Heat Brings Vermont/Northeast Severe Risk Today

This image from the National Weather Service in South Burlington
shows much of Vermont and New York under a slight risk
of severe storms today (areas in yellow).

Today will be the last day of the unseasonable, record breaking  heat and humid that has enveloped northern New England and southern Quebec.

The price for this transition will be the risk of severe thunderstorms.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a large chunk of the interior Northeast away from the coast under a slight risk of severe weather. This includes all of Vermont except basically the Connecticut River Valley, which is under a marginal risk.  

A slight risk for severe storms is level two out of five on the alert scale for dangerous weather. A slight risk means that scattered severe storms are possible, but they would generally be not terribly long lived. An isolated intense storm could develop, too.

I'm thinking it's possible part of the slight risk zone could go up a step to number three on the alert level, which is "enhanced" risk.  That would mean a somewhat more widespread outbreak.  I would emphasize this idea of an upgrade to level three enhanced is JUST speculation on my part and NOT part an official National Weather Service forecast.

One thing that would help big storms get going is if sunshine  between now and early this afternoon helps destabilize the atmosphere. Satellite images early this morning showed a fair number of breaks in the clouds over Vermont and upstream in New York.

The main risks with today's severe weather threat in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeastsare strong straight line winds and downbursts.  These could be enough to cause local damage to trees, power lines and maybe even structures.  Most of us won't see anything that bad, but a lot of us will hear thunder, see lightning and probably get a gusty downpour or at least a shower our of it.

There is even a remote chance of a brief spinup tornado once again from around Montreal south through the Champlain Valley and on down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians all the way to North Carolina.

There is some spin - changing wind direction with height - that could create some rotating thunderstorms. Remember, though: Just because a thunderstorm is spinning doesn't always mean it will produce a tornado. It's something to watch today, just in case.  Don't count on a tornado, though. It's a very, very low chance.

Another thing to consider today is the risk of so-called training thunderstorms. That's when a line of thunderstorms, like boxcars on a train track, go over the same spot over and over again. These storms can cause torrential rains and flash flooding.

The risk of this happening today is fairly low, because it's been so dry lately.  It would take a helluva lot of rain to set off a flash flood. It's still one more thing to keep an eye on, though.

There will probably be several rounds of showers and storms this afternoon and tonight affecting different parts of the state at different times.  Storms will probably start to ramp up in New York State by early afternoon and spread eastward into Vermont.

Everybody will get rain, but there will be winners and losers. Some places will get a nice, needed soaking and a few places will get a pathetic light showering. It's a crap shoot that's impossible to predict in advance. I'm rooting for a nice drenching here in dusty St. Albans, Vermont.

All this will leave us with cooler and drier weather on Saturday. A second cold front will pass through Saturday evening. It will turn quite chilly for the opening days of June, as has been advertised for days now.

A few places might not get past 60 degrees for highs Sunday and Monday, which is a far cry from the 90s earlier this week.  Also, if there are clear skies on any of these nights, a few colder spots would be at a risk of frost.  Most of us will be fine, though.

Incredible May Heat REALLY Shattered Records

Anvil clouds from the top of thunderstorms over the Adirondacks loomed
over my house last evening in St. Albans, Vermont.  The clouds were
welcomed as they ever so slightly tempered the record heat
that baked my town and the rest of Vermont Wednesday 

We have another episode of extreme heat down in the record books in Vermont, continuing a seemingly increasing trend of major record breakers.

To recap:  

Burlington's temperature rose to 95 degrees on Wednesday, breaking the old high record for the month of 93 degrees. The quote, unquote low temperature for the day was 72 degrees, also the hottest for the month of May.

Many, if not most years in Burlington see entire summers that don't reach as high as 95 degrees, so this is really something.

On Mount Mansfield, records don't go back nearly as far as Burlington's, but the top of mountain set a really impressive record.    It reached 85 degrees there, the hottest temperature recorded for ANY month. Records go back to 1954 up on Mount Mansfield.

Montpelier, Vermont also set a new record high for the month of May with a reading of 91 degrees.

If anything, the heat was even more intense in soutbern Quebec, where some incredible records were set. The Montreal area seems to be the epicenter of this heat wave

As Dennis Mersereau writes in Forbes, it got up to a shocking  98 degrees at the Montreal-Trudeau Internation Airport.  That's a record for the month of May and comes very close to the city's all time record high of 100 degrees on August 1, 1975.

STORMS, TOO

The heat contributed to enough instability to trigger some spotty severe thunderstorms where mountains managed to create updrafts.

A storm toppled numerous trees along and near Route 107 in Bethel. Other tree damage was reported near Waterbury and in Roxbury. The slow moving storms also dumped torrential rains in a small number of spots.  The rain was heavy enough to prompt a flood warning for a time in and around Hancock and Granville, Vermont Wednesday afternoon.

HOT RECORDS KEEP FALLING

This week's amazing heat is in step with some wild record highs in recent years around Vermont.

For instance, Christmas Eve, 2015 saw temperatures approach or even reach 70 degrees in parts of Vermont. Burlington had its warmest December day then, with a high o 69 degrees.

In February, 2017, Burlington's temperatures soared to 72 degrees, shattering the previous all-time high for tha tmonth, which had been 63 degrees.

On July, 2, 2018, the minimum temperature in Burlington was 80 degrees, the first time on record that a day's low temperature failed to drop below 80 degrees.

We still get cold spells, of course. Witness the snow earlier this month. But, consistent with climate change, the extreme warm spells are often getting more extreme, while the sharpest cold spells have for the most part lost some of their bite.

LOOKING AHEAD

The worst of the heat here in past, though it will remain oddly warm and humid for May today and tomorrow.  Clouds, in part from surprise Tropical Storm Bertha yesterday that came ashore in South Carolina, should  keep temperatures below 90 degrees in Vermont today. Still, it will be in the 80s, so it will feel uncomfortable. Little or no rain is expected.

Another very warm and humid day is on tap Friday, but changes are afoot. Those changes come in the form of some cold fronts approaching us.  The weather system should set off some badly needed showers and thunderstorms.

The drawback to this is that some storms may approach severe levels on Friday, with gusty winds being the main threat.

Storms might also drop some heavy rain. If several storms run over the same spot or two on Friday, which is possible, local flash flooding could ensue. However, it has been very dry, so flooding, if it happens, will be isolated at best.

That anticipated cool snap, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows near 40, still looks like a good bet Sunday and Monday.

Hot Spell Will Feel Hotter Because We're Not Used To It

Lilacs in front of my St. Albams, Vermonnt house. Hot weather
is making them come and go too fast. 

There was definitely a vaguely humid feel to the air this morning in St. Albans, Vermont as we got off to the start of a three, or even possibly four day spell of toasty weather.

At this point, temperatures look like they will be at near record levels this afternoon and tomorrow, with highs reaching 90 degrees or maybe even a little above that in the warmer valleys and 80s elsewhere in Vermont.

The record high for today in Burlington is 92 degrees and the record high Wednesday is 91, so those will be challenged. The all time record high for the month of May is 93 degrees, set in 1977 and 2017. There's a low chance that could be tied or broken.

Yes, it will be humid during this, but not as humid as during the worst mid-summer heat waves. Dew points are a good measure of how muggy it feels. Today and tomorrow, dew points will be in the low 60s.

Anything over 60 starts to feel humid for most people. If the dew point were at 70 degrees, that's oppressive and awful.

Of course, us humans get accustomed a bit to a consistent type of weather. This will be our first hot spell, so it will probably feel worse than it actually is.  So if you're going to be outside working or playing, be doubly aware that you need to drink plenty of water and rest when you need to.

One bummer about the early season heat is that it makes flowers come and go so fast.  Apple blossoms appeared and disappeared behind my house in just four days because it was so warm. My lilacs were barely starting to blossom Friday. Now they're already in full flower and will probably fade away by the end of the week. Oh well.

Lakes, especially bigger ones like Lake Champlain, are still cold, so you want to be careful boating.  If you fall into the water, you're in trouble.  The water is so cold it's paralyzing, and you could drown quickly because of that.  Consider postponing that boating excursion until later in the summer. Or at least stay wicked close to shore.

The cold Lake Champlain water will have an interesting effect on local weather today and especially tomorrow.

The chilly water will generate lake breezes, so it will be much cooler on the immediate shore of the lake than inland just a bit.

The collision between the cool lake breezes and the hot air over land will essentially form boundaries, which are little weather fronts dividing the cool lake air and the hot land air.  These little "weather fronts" might create just enough lift to trigger widely scattered showers and thunderstorms near them.

This hot air is pretty unstable,  but there won't be a lot of lift in the atmosphere, so any storms will need a trigger, like those lake breeze boundaries. Once these thunderstorms get going, there's a slight chance one or two of them will get strong.

But they won't last long, and the vast majority of us won't see these thunderstorms. But they are another hazard to watch out for if you're near the lake.

Chances for showers and storms increase late in the week, especially on Friday as a cold front approaches. It will remain warm and humid both days, but there's a lesser chance of either day making it to 90 degrees.

A relatively brief shot of unusually chilly air will come in for the the last day of the month Sunday, and the first couple of days of June.  It' might actually be cold enough for frosts in the colder valleys Monday morning, so if you're considering putting in your tomatoes in the cold spots, I'd wait a bit until we see how that upcoming cool spell plays out.

Worst Storms Were In Central New York/New England; Unknown If Tornadoes

Radar image of a dangerous storm heading into southwestern Vermont
last evening. Where the blue line and arrow is drawn in, the apex
of the backward "C' shape likely had damaging straight line
winds.  The red box was a tornado warning as radar
detected some spinning in the northern part of this storm. 

The severe weather in the Northeast materialized pretty much as expected yesterday, cutting a swath through western and central New York and finally through central New England.

A tornado watch was in effect for this event, and some of the storms were definitely rotating. However, it's unknown whether any tornadoes touched down.

 I'm sure National Weather Service offices in Albany, New York and in Massachusetts and New Hampshire will look into this.

The most interesting and dangerous cluster of storms got going north of Utica, New York. It promptly triggered a tornado warning.  A house in the path of this tornado warning lost its roof in the storm, but it's unclear if it was a twister or straight line winds.

The storm continued to cause damage, and occasional tornado warnings as it moved eastward into Saratoga, Washington and Warren counties of New York, just west of the Vermont border.  There were a lot of trees down, some damaged houses and roads blocked by debris. At least 36,000 people lost power in that area, according to the Glens Falls Post Star. 

The Post Star posted a photo of what they said was a tornado in Wilton, New York, but I'm not convinced by the photo. It could also be a downburst or a hail shaft, in my opinion.

The Glens Falls Post Star displayed this photo taken by Adam Colver
of what they said is a possible tornado in Wilton, New York. (Behind
the red brick part of the building). This feature in the storm could
also be a shaft of falling hail or a microburst. 

The line of storms then moved through Bennington and Windham counties, triggering tornado warnings around Sunderland, in southwestern Vermont, and the Brattleboro/Dummerston area in the southeast.

Again, it's unclear whether there were any actual tornadoes. The rotation on radar images in this storm did not look particularly intense. But this area is pretty distant from radar sites, so the quality of the storm images wasn't great.

There were reports of trees and wires down along the path of this storm and particularly where the tornado warnings went off. But this damage could easily have been caused by straight line winds and not anything tornadic.  If it was a tornado (which I kind of doubt) it would have been a fairly weak one.

The cluster of storms moved on into southwestern New Hampshire. I think slightly flatter ground there helped the storm intensify, and damage to trees and even buildings was greater than in Vermont.

On the southern end of this cluster of storms, high winds tore the roof off an apartment building in Holyoke, Massachusetts, displacing about 140 people. Again, it could have been straight line winds. I imagine weather experts will examine the damage in Holyoke to determine what caused it.

Further north in Vermont, there were strong to severe storms from about Middlebury to Montpelier to Bradford and points south, exactly as forecasters expected. There were reports of some trees and wires down with these storms. The storms in central Vermont were not tornadic. No tornado warnings were issued for this area, and there is no evidence of any kind of spin up that I could see.

Further north, in the quote, unquote more stable air, the parent storm system created a pretty good punch.  The line of heavy downpours, with some embedded thunder, managed to produce a wind gust to 47 mph in South Burlington. That's not severe, but still was kind of impressive.

The same storm system did more good than harm around my area in St. Albans, Vermont.  I got 0.88 inches of rain, with most of it coming within an hour during gusty showers.  We needed the rain, so I'm grateful that came through.

There's no severe storms in the forecasts now, but the predictions are pretty uncertain as to what will happen with our weather over the next few days.

A storm system will set up and sort of sit and spin over the central Appalachians over the next few days.  An early season subtropical storm seems to be forming off the coast of Florida and will get absorbed by that sitting and spinning storm

Meanwhile, fair weather high pressure will want to sink into northern New England from Quebec.  This will want to clear the skies over us.  So which wins? The rain to the south or the fair weather tothe north? Hard to tell, but as it looks now, we might get a period of rain Monday, then things will start clear out for the rest of next week. No promises, though.

Also, don't worry about any new outbreaks of late season chill if the Canadian high pressure system wins. Yes, it is from Canada, but it's not a cold batch of air.  Also, this fair weather system is, or will be, sitting over southern Quebec.

That's far enough south so that the warm May sun will keep raising the temperatures within this zone of fair weather, The upshot for us is we'll get near normal,  to perhaps slightly above normal temperatures by the end of the upcoming week.

Snow, Record Cold, Hail, Storms, Twisters: We Just Can't Have Nice Things

Springtime killed. Amid a dusting of snow, the sagging blooms and
the dark color leaves on these daffodils in my yard indicate
they might have been destroyed by the frigid temperatures. Photo was
taken while temperatures were still well below freezing. The
damage will probably be more apparent later. 

In the grand scheme of things, the losses and potential losses I found outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont this morning were pretty small.

But they were still disheartening.

I kind of expected it, but it was a shame to see the daffodils and other plants and flowers that had been coming up likely ruined by the intense cold from last night.

If any of them survived, they won't tonight as temperatures are likely to be in even colder tonight. I'll know at the end of the week what, if anything, survived. I have a feeling I won't even get to enjoy lilacs this year. Those buds could be damaged, too.  

Who knows? Maybe most of the plants will recover.  But I'm not optimistic at this point.

Amid everything that has been going on, it was nice to get some peace in my gardens from the early season blooms. Now those are gone, at least for now. So that was taken from me.  Everything had been coming up, so I don't know what kind of flowers and blooms I get later in the spring or summer.

Well, there's always next year.

As if to add insult to injury, as I started to write this, snow began to briefly fall pretty heavily. The sickening winter sound of a snow plow scraping by bothered me, too. There's not much snow, but it's blowing around and making the roads slick. It's not the usual April wet snow. It's powdery. Roads are frozen. Like January. Ugh.

At last check it was 18 degrees up in Saranac Lake, New York. The "warmest" parts of Vermont were in the upper 20s early this morning.  Snow covered the ground across most of northern Vermont, and I'm sure gardeners statewide found the same depressing sight out their doors that I did this morning.

Tonight, Vermont is in for record or near record cold. The record low tomorrow morning in Burlington is 23 degrees and in Montpelier it's 21 degrees. Those records are in jeopardy. Some areas of the Northeast Kingdom will probably be in the mid-teens tonight. A few places up there might not even get above freezing today.

Again, my "suffering" isn't that at all. Just a little disappointment. But you can't help but think the weather has gotten pretty mean-spirited.

I can't attribute today's weather to climate change.  It could be random, and you really can't take one weather event in one little spot on the globe and point at climate change.

However,  in a perverse way, it's consistent with it. We've been warned by scientist - as I recall since the late 1980s at least - we were heading toward a future that was generally warmer, but with a higher risk of sharp day to day jolts in temperatures and weather conditions. We were warned of warmer temperatures interrupted by sharp, damaging cold spells. That future is here.

Like what has been happening in lots of places, increasingly in recent years, things get going early in the spring due to oddly warm temperatures. Then an old fashioned quick freeze comes and ruins everything.

For me this year, it was just a bummer. For many agricultural interests in much of the eastern United States, this will be a disaster at a time they really don't need anothe disaster.

Freeze warnings are up for a broad area of the Middle Atlantic States, with temperatures likely to reach the 20s as far south as Virginia. Orchards and early crops in this region are in big trouble.

SEVERE STORMS

Gigantic hailstones came down overnight near
Devol, Oklahoma. Photo via Twitter/KOCO

And, as I've mentioned practically every day this month, severe storms keep rolling on.  Here's the latest update.

Those severe storms in the Middle Atlantic States certainly materialized.  Though tornadoes were not expected, one might have hit Toms River, on the Jersey shore. There's a lot of damage to trees and some houses, there, so the weather folks will probably investigate that today.

There was a tornado warning at one point for pretty intense rotation on the Bronx/Yonkers border yesterday afternoon, ut I don't know if anything actually touched down.

Yesterday, overnight and this morning, large hail, sometimes baseball sized, pelted parts of Oklahoma.

Tornadoes are in the forecast today for a broad area centered on where Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana meet. The tornado threat will spread into much of the rest of the Southeast tomorrow.

Back up here in Vermont, we're not expecting any severe weather. The frigid weather is enough, thank you. Although it will warm up somewhat starting tomorrow afternoon, it looks like it's going to stay colder than normal into early May.

If any of our garden plants can grow back, they'll have to wait awhile.