Meteorologists Are Bald Now Because Hermine Has Them Pulling Out Their Hair

Hermine continued to spin south of Long Island this morning. 

Post-tropical storm Hermine, or whatever you want to call that stupid storm that's now south of New England, has frustrated EVERYBODY with its unpredictability.

I suppose the very good news is damage along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts is far, far less than initially feared.

But since the storm went more east than anybody thought it would and things weren't all that bad along the coast, the next dangerous storm might inspire people to not flee low lying areas because they'll assume forecasters are crying wolf.

Hermine kind of did what was forecast, performing stalls and little loops off the coast. It just did it further offshore than anyone imagined.

Forecasting the tracks of hurricanes, tropical storms and related storms has gotten much better in recent years, but there's still a lot to learn.

For instance, kudos to the National Hurricane Center for absolutely nailing their forecasts for the strength of Hurricane Hermine and its landfall location in Florida last week.

Hermine tracked along the southeastern United States coast Friday and Saturday as expected, but things really went off the rails starting Saturday night with the forecasts for Hermine.

It was supposed to stall much closer to the coast than it did, and it was supposed to hang out over the very warm Gulf Stream waters, and would have strengthened back up to hurricane power.

But it went further east out to sea before stalling.

As hurricane expert Bryan Norcross wrote in Weather Underground, forecasting the path of tropical systems in notoriously difficult when atmosphering steering currents are weak, as has been the case for Hermine off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Forecasting computer models were all over the place with this.  The National Hurricane Center did acknowledge the forecasting problems as they were trying to track this thing but might have underplayed the uncertain in their statements that went out to the public.

The NHC was probably trying to act out of an abundance of caution and figured it would be better to get people out of harm's way, rather than throw some uncertainty into the minds of the public that could lead them to stay on dangerous shorelines.

Which in the case of Hermine turned out to be not so dangerous.

Hermine is still harassing the Northeast. It's now finally turned back toward the west. Yesterday, it gave parts of Cape Cod and the Islands tropical storm conditions with peak wind gusts of 55 to 60 mph in spots like Nantucket.

That wind blew down quite a few trees and branches and caused pretty widespread power failures in southeastern New England.

 Conditions aren't so bad today, but the continued presence of Hermine will continue with the wind, the rough seas, the dangerous rip currents and beach erosion. That state of affairs should continue much of this week

Forecasters think - and we hope - Hermine will finally dwindle away and head away from the coast toward the end of the week or the early part of next weekend.

Good riddance!

Hermine Update: Entire Coast From North Carolina To New England Still Under Threat Big Time

Damage from Hermine's storm surge in Florida on
Friday. Many coastal homes and structures from North
Carolina to New England could face damage
like this as Hermine continues to spin off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. 

Hermine, whether you want to call it a hurricane, a tropical storm or some weird big regular storm, continues to cause massive problems today and will continue spreading these coastal problems more and more toward the north over the rest of the Labor Day weekend.

A tropical storm watch has been upgrade to a warning for the New York City area, New Jersey, Long Island and the southern New England coast all the way to Watch Hill, Rhode Island.

A new tropical storm watch is up further north and east along the New England coast to include all of Cape Cod and the islands. 

The National Hurricane Center is still warning of "life-threatening inundations" for storm surges along the coast from the Hampton Roads area of Virginia (ongoing now!) all the way up through New Jersey.

Storm surges along the coast could reach five feet, near record highs in some spots. I don't think this will be quite as bad as Superstorm Sandy, but bad enough.

Plus, we have to get more people out of the way than we did with Sandy. More people are near the shore on Labor Day weekend than the time of year Sandy hit, which was late October in 2012.

If you're on the Jersey Shore, or Long Island, or down in Delaware and Maryland and Virginia and near the coast and they tell you to leave. Do it! The life you save might be your own, goes the cliché and it's true here.

You'll also want to leave before the tides and storm surges start coming in, because the escape roads are usually the first to go underwater or get washed away.

There already has been quite a bit of storm surge in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, you know, the area around Norfolk and Virginia Beach, reports the Virginia Pilot.


Storm surge flooding from Hermine in southeastern Virginia
this morning. Photo by Kimberly Pierceall, Virginia Pilot 

As I said before, Hermine isn't really a tropical storm anymore, but ignore that distinction. It's actually gotten stronger in terms of winds and waves and that kind of thing.

Gusts I'm coastal Duck, North Carolina reached 84 mph this morning as Hermine re-entered the Atlantic Ocean from the southeastern United States.

Hermine is still heading out to sea, and will end up just offshore. She'll meander and do loop de loops off of New Jersey, possibly getting very close to the coast at some point Sunday or Monday.

And it'll keep strengthening into Monday and probably be a hurricane or at least hurricane strength Sunday and/or Monday.

The storm surges, the winds and the rains will hug the coast, and you won't have to go too far inland in New Jersey and elsewhere in the East for the impacts to be much less dangerous and extreme.

If you're, say, 25 miles inland, it might be gusty and cloudy and sometimes rainy, but I don't think there will be tremendous damage away from the coasts.

But the Northeast coastline is so built up, there's a lot of property along the shore to get trashed.

The forecast track into early next week for Hermine has trended a little north, which is why southern New England is now under a tropical storm watch.

Up here at my perch in Vermont, we're still expecting few impacts from Hermine. Since it's going a little further north, many of us will gradually find ourselves under more and more high, thin clouds as we head toward Sunday and especially Monday.

Far southern Vermont might even get a few showers out of this, maybe, but don't hold your breath on that one.

Hermine Hits Florida, Will Hassle East Coast For Days

Hermine in Georgia this morning. Much of the East Coast
is in for coastal flooding and damaging, battering
waves all weekend from this thing. 

5 PM FRIDAY UPDATE:

Tropical storm watches have been upgraded to tropical storm warnings as far north as Sandy Hook, New Jersey.

Tropical storm watches extend further north to Watch Hill, Rhode Island.

1 PM FRIDAY UPDATE:

Hermine is going to be a very dangerous storm along the East Coast over the next few days.

Really bad storm surges and coastal flooding is a good bet from North Carolina to as far north as southern New England over the next few days. 

As I noted in this morning, (in the discussion below) Hermine now inland over South Carolina, will head off the North Carolina coast Saturday morning.

From there, it will probably turn into this weird tropical storm/mid-latitude storm off the Mid-
Atlantic coast. It will feed off the record warm offshore waters and basically stall, or at the very least move only very, very slowly northward.

Hermine could regain hurricane force strength again while off the Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend.

Here's the takeaway: If you were planning on going to the Jersey Shore, or pretty much anywhere on the East Coast between Georgia and New England for a Labor Day beach getaway, don't even bother.

Stay home.

If you insist on going to the shore, stay out of the water!!!! The rip tides and currents and waves will be extreme, and you will die if you go in for a swim. Don't be stupid, ya hear?

Tidal surges could reach four feet high along the New Jersey shore, with coastal flooding all the way as far north as Long Island and Rhode Island. Tropical storm watches are up for these areas, as well as the Jersey Shore, Delaware and coastal Maryland.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect further south.

Since Hermine will be hanging around off the coast for days, repeated high tide cycles and constant, battering waves have the potential to cause severe damage along many parts of the East Coast. This could well be the worst disaster in New Jersey since Superstorm Sandy in 2012, and possibly one of the worst storms in that region's history.

The odd thing is, depending upon where Hermine sets up and stalls, there might not be much rain in some of the Northeastern coastal areas that could have a lot of destruction along the shore.
It could rain hard, but there might even be times the sun is out while strong winds and battering waves trash coastal properties.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

As expected, Hurricane Hermine came ashore in northwestern Florida as a Category One hurricane with sustained winds of at least 75 mph.

Early reports indicate roofs and porches have been blown off houses in the hardest hit areas, there's extensive flooding and power failures are widespread. The majority of Tallahassee, for instance, has no electricity.



Hurricane Hermine eroded this Alligator Point, Florida
road well before the storm made landfall.

The Tallahassee Democrat reports extensive damage in Taylor County, Florida, with a storm surge that reached as much as ten feet high.
Nearly 19 inches of rain - incredible - fell near Baskin, Florida and several towns reported more than a foot of rain.

Hermine is inland now, and weakening, because hurricanes always do when they go inland.  But it's still going to cause a lot of flooding, strong winds, and the risk of tornados in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas today and tonight.

Hermine, or some weird post-tropical hybrid version ot it, will contnue to create problems for the next several days.

Hermine will track toward the northeast just inland from the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas today and Saturday, then head back out to sea, then probably stall off the Mid-Atlantic coast for days.

Its path north is going to be blocked by a strong ridge of high pressure over northern New England and southern Quebec.

There's a lot of uncertainty as to exactly where Hermine will slow down or stall, so that makes forecasts tricky. For now, tropical storm watches extend all the way north to New Jersey.

Coastal areas from Long Island south can expect storm surge flooding, battering waves and beach erosion through several tide cycles this weekend, so the damage could be nasty.

How bad things get depends upon how close to the coast Hermine or its post-tropical version of itself gets. If it's close to shore, it will be bad. But then again, if it stall further offshore, it will feed off record warm waters, and possibly strengthen.

Either way, you're screwed.

You'll hear talk of Hermine becoming a non-tropical storm, then maybe taking on tropical characteristics again if it sits over that  warm water off the coast.  

The distinction of whether Hermine will be a tropical storm or a regular big storm is really not important in a practical sense. Coastal areas, especially in places like New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia better brace themselves. No matter what you call the storm, tropical or not, it could prove dangerous for those along the coast.

It would be nice if Hermine went a little further north and dumped a lot of rain on drought-stricken southern New England, but at this point, it doesn't look like it will rain all that much there.

For my Vermont readers, since I'm based in Vermont, Hermine won't really have any effects on us. That ridge of high pressure that will block Hermine from moving north will be overhead or close to it over the weekend, so expect sunshine and mild weather in the Green Mountain State.

Hermine might throw some high level clouds our way, especially Monday, but it won't be a big deal. If you're planning a trip to the New England coast, though, beware of terribly dangerous rip currents and possible local coastal flooding.

Tropical Storm Hermine A Big Flood Threat To Florida, Southeast

Northwestern coastal Florida could face storm surge
flooding like this from Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) Hermine. 

After teasing forecasters for weeks, Tropical Storm Hermine blossomed yesterday in the Gulf of Mexico. She's strengthening as she heads towards northwestern Florida, where the storm will cause a big mess.

There's an excellent chance Hermine will be a hurricane by the time it hits the coast tonight.  As of 8 a.m. today, maximum sustained winds in Hermine had gone up to 65 mph.

Landfall is expected around midnight, or a little after. The weather will worsen all day today in northern Florida.

Basically, Hermine is causing every kind of tropical storm-type threat imaginable. The storm surge threat has gotten worse, with flooding from the ocean possible reaching four to seven feet above normal tide levels.

There's a LOT of low lying property along and near the northwestern Florida beaches, so you can imagine there will be a lot of damage.

People ought to get out of the way of this storm surge pretty darn quick, if they haven't already. That's because some storm surge flooding will probably start before Hermine's strong winds and heaviest rains arrive.

The rain is another problem. Some areas in northern Florida and southern Georgia could get a foot of it.  Which means people who are inland enough to escape the storm surge flooding from the ocean will still get inundated.

Yep, this will be yet ANOTHER flood disaster for the nation.

The wind will cause quite a bit of damage, too, since some coastal spots in northern Florida could see gusts to 85 mph. Power will be out for days.  That'll be a lovely lack of air conditioning in sultry early September Florida. Of course, for the people whose houses flood, no air conditioning is the least of their worries.

Hurricane warnings are up for northwestern Florida, including the cities of Tallahassee and Apalachicola. Tornadoes are also possible in much of Florida and parts of Georgia and South Carolina as Hermine approaches, then moves through.

It looks like Hermine will then move along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, then offshore a bit while probably turning into a non-tropical storm.

But don't let that conversion to a non-hurricane type storm. There are signs it could stall off the mid-Atlantic coast, throwing battering waves and high tides against the shore starting Sunday and possibly continuing for days.

Expect lots of beach erosion and possibly some structural damage. And, unfortunately, maybe some deaths among those foolhardy enough to go into the water for a swim amid the extreme rip currents and waves all along the East Coast.

How bad things get depends upon where Hermine or ex-Hermine stalls, if it stalls. The closer to the coast it meanders, the worse things will be.

Tropical Trouble: Florida, Hawaii Most Under Threat Now

Thunderstorms are firing up big time in that
weather disturbance heading toward Florida.
It's an indication that there's a good chance it
will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Hermine later today 

I know I've been posting awfully frequently about tropical disturbances and hurricanes ane such, but it is the peak of the hurricane season.

Things are busy and heating up even more, so it's a good idea to stay up to date.

The biggest threats for bad tropical weather right now are in Florida and Hawaii.

There's now even a slight chance a wannabe tropical storm could bring some drought relief to southeastern New England. That's a long shot, but it's something to hope for.

Here are the details:

FLORIDA'S WANNABE HERMINE

That hyped storm that we've been talking about that came across the Caribbean and into the southern Bahamas, Cuba and south of Florida never developed as so many had forecasted.

Now this thing has gotten into the Gulf of Mexico and looks like it's finally getting its act together. Upper level winds that had been tearing the wannabe tropical storm apart have waned a bit. The water beneath the storm is incredibly warm.

Satellite photos this morning show that this thing has really revved up, with big thunderstorms now nearer to the center of the little storm's circulation. I really think the National Hurricane Center later today will upgrade this - finally - to a tropical storm and name it Hermine.  (Not to be confused with Hermoine from the Harry Potter series.)

Forecasts call for Wannabe Hermine to move north, then northeastward toward the Big Bend of Florida. That's the spot in Florida on the northwestern side of the state where the peninsula ends and turns west to form the state's panhandle.

There's a chance that Wannabe Hermine could strengthen into a hurricane by the time it hits that northwestern corner of Florida.

So, that region is under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning. At this point, the storm cold cause storm surges in low-lying sections of northwestern Florida of three to five feet in some spots

Worse, Wannabe Hermine could easily drop five, ten, even 15 inches of rain on northwestern Florida, which would create a big flash flood problem.

Things are getting a little more interesting regarding what happens after that with Wannabe Hermine.

It looks like it will emerge into the Atlantic Ocean along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. If it remains offshore and not inland in those states, it could restrengthen after crossing northern Florida, or at least maintain its power.

Heavy rains could set off flooding in parts of Georgia and South Carolina over the weekend.

Most computer models take Wannabe Hermine off the coast and away from the United States after it gets past North Carolina. But a few computer models want to take it toward coastal New England.

Though that would wash out Labor Day plans in southeastern New England, that area is experiencing an nasty drought and could use a good dousing.  The chances that Wannabe Hermine would make it to New England seem low at the moment, but it's something to watch.

Another thing to consider that's VERY IMPORTANT: If you're planning a beach trip anywhere along the East Coast, including all of New England's shoreline, there's going to be dangerous rip currents, waves and such will make going in the water dangerous

What with Wannabe Hermine, powerful Hurricane Gaston way off the coast and Tropical Depression #8 heading away from North Carolina, the seas along the East Coast are going to be way, way stirred up. Be careful!!

HAWAII TROUBLE:

Hurricane Madeline is going to go just south of the Big Island of Hawaii this afternoon. It was a major hurricane, but luckily, it's rapidly weakening.

Hurricanes Madeline and Lester churning toward
Hawaii yesterday. They're both on a weakening
trend today but still pose a big threat to Hawaii.  

Still, this is a big deal for Hawaii. The Big Island in particular can expect damaging winds, storm surges on the coast and nasty flash floods today as Madeline goes by. The rest of the Hawaiin chain is in for rough weather today, too.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Lester is expected to pass just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands later Friday and Saturday, with more wind, flooding and trouble like that.

I don't think there's ever been an occasion before where two hurricanes threaten Hawaii so much within just a few days of each other. Really nasty.

Hurricane Hermine? So Far, Pffft! So Much For The Hype. At Least For Now

Those little patche of thunderstorms near
Cuba and south of the Bahamas was supposed to
be a nasty hurricane or tropical storm, the
hype went. But not so.
That bigger patch of clouds on the right side
of the satellite pic is Tropical Storm Gaston,
which is not a threat to the United States.   

For the past week or more, some of us weather nerds on Twitter and elsewhere on social media have been hyping the idea of a big hurricane hitting Florida by this weekend.

I wasn't one of of the hypsters because I knew long range hurricane forecasts were iffy at best.

So do many meteorologists. The saner heads were saying wait and see, and if it gets to the point where we should be alarmed, we'll let you know.

Meanwhile, just chill.

So, this morning the thing that's headed toward Florida is --- not much at all.

The would-be Hurricane Hermine is just a disorganized patch of thunderstorms heading into the Bahamas. No Category 3 or 4 winds, no massive storm surge, just..... unpleasant weather.

That's not to say we should all just completely relax. The weather disturbance, such as it is, could still cause flooding in the Bahamas and Florida. Thunderstorms around this disturbance did start to increase in size and intensity late this morning, so it might be trying again to form into something, we'll see.

(It does look a bit healthier as of noon than the pic in this post from early this morning.)

Plus, the National Hurricane Center says this disturbance will probably eventually make its way to the Gulf of Mexico, where it still could develop into a tropical storm or even hurricane, since atmospheric conditions might be a little better to allow a tropical storm to get going.

It's something we'll have to watch, but no panic yet.

 I'm also a little disappointed on my Twitter feed this morning that there's an air of disappointment and frustration that this thing, the Non-Hermine, is so lame.

I thought it was good news. A tropical storm or hurricane threat that so far has not materialized. We should all be happy that Miami is not being blown away and drowned.

Us weather geeks love our atmospheric excitement, I'll give you that. But let's not actually hope for a destructive storm.

I hope Non-Hermine continues to choke and fizzle and sputter and die as it heads toward the Gulf of Mexico.