Today Is Peak Of Hurricane Season. This Year, It REALLY Is

Today's satellite snapshot of Hurricane Florence depicts a
menacing, strengthening, dangerous storm. 

Today, September 10, is often regarded as the exact peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. If you're going to have hurricanes, this is the date they are probably most likely.

This year, today, we've got three of them: Florence, Helene and Isaac. All full-fledged hurricanes.

Obviously, Florence is the one everybody really has their eyes on because it's such a threat to the East Coast. But we'll break things down one by one.

I'll get into Florence in a minute, but first, some more local weather for today:

EX-GORDON

The remains of Tropical Storm Gordon remain embedded in a storm system that was around Pennslyvania this morning. Much of that state is under flood warnings due to the heavy rain with this system. It's been a terrible summer in Pennsylvania. Every time I turn around, there's another flood there.

One example: Harrisburg, Pennsylvania has had about 47 inches of rain so far this year. That's about 19 inches more than they should have had by now.

Luckily for Pennsylvania, Ex-Gordon should start to move out of Pennsylvania later today. Luckily for us Vermonters, Ex-Gordon still looks like it's going to hit us later today and tonight.

We so desperately need the rain, and this will be a good one. Instead of short, sharp bursts of torrential rain we've had in scattered thunderstorms all summer, this storm will involve at least 12 consecutive hours of steady light to moderate rain.

That's the kind of rain that soaks into the ground nicely. Most of us here in Vermont can expect one to two inches of rain, with locally more in southern Vermont.

Enjoy the rain while you can. Despite this storm, we're still in the overall pattern we've had all summer, with a high pressure ridge in the upper atmosphere near or over us. After the rain tapers off Tuesday morning, expect no more precipitation at least through Sunday.

FLORENCE MENACES

Hurricane Florence, as expected, was rapidly intensifying this morning. Top sustained winds were at 105 mph early this morning, but those are expected to go up to a terrifying 150 mph by Wednesday.

The expected path of Florence hasn't changed much since yesterday, and at the moment, North Carolina seems to be in Florence's crosshairs. The path could still shift to the north or south before we get to Thursday, when the hurricane is expected to make landfall.

Most forecasters expect Florence to still be a major, dangerous hurricane by the time it reaches North Carolina or thereabouts. There is a chance strong upper level winds could weaken Florence just before it reaches shore, but that won't matter much.

Sure, weakening, if it happens, will reduce wind damage somewhat. But the principal threat from Florence, and any other landfalling hurricane for that matter, is a coastal storm surge and inland flooding.

Weakening might or might not happen, but either way, coastal areas will see severe storm surges. Florence is also still expected to slow down or stall once it gets inland a bit, which will trigger massive amounts of rain with potentially catastrophic flooding.

People in the Carolinas are already preparing for this mess, as well they should be. Things are not looking good.

HURRICANE HELENE

Helene is expected to be comparatively well behaved. It's way out over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, with top winds of about 85 mph. Happily, Helene is expected to turn toward due north, far away from any major land areas. Once it goes north Helene will weaken and die by next week over colder North Atlantic waters. Buh-bye!

WILDCARD ISAAC

Hurricane Isaac, with top winds of 75 mph, is expected to strengthen, at least temporarily as it heads due west toward the Lesser Antilles islands and eventually the Caribbean Sea. Forecasters are prett confident that Isaac will keep heading nearl due west, but nobody can agree on whether it will strengthen or weaken, or when any of those trends might happen.

Isaac is small in size, so it's prone to rapid changes in intensity. Many computer models have it weakening to a tropical storm once it's in the Caribbean. Other models turn it into a monster. We'll see how that goes.

On top of all this, Hurricane Olivia is still threatening Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean. And a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico might or might not develop into something in the coming days.

Florence And All Kinds Of Tropical Threats

Busy satellite map of the Atlantic. Click on the image to make it
bigger and easier to see. From left to right: Mass of clouds over
Midwest is former Tropical Storm Gordon The yellow X is
a disturbance that's not expected to amount to much. Then
we have Florence, then soon-to-be Tropical Storm Isaac,
then Tropical Storm Helene near the African coast. 

You'll have to forgive me, but this blog will be mostly about tropical storms and hurricanes for awhile as the peak of hurricane season has hit with a vengeance.

It was supposed to be a quiet year for hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, but for the time being, it's most certainly not.

There's all kinds of things to talk about. The eastern Pacific Ocean is a mess, too, with tropical storms and hurricanes buzzing around.

So let's get to it with our Saturday update:

EX-TROPICAL STORM GORDON

As I expected, the remains of Tropical Storm Gordon is causing a LOT more trouble than it did when it was an actual tropical storm along the Gulf Coast several days ago.

The former Gordon is dumping horrible amounts of rain in the Midwest, and this trend will continue big time today. A weather front associated with ex-Gordon is spreading downpours into the already soggy Middle Atlantic states too. This is bad, because that could be setting the stage for cataclysmic flooding if Hurricane Florence comes along later next week. (More on that in a minute.)

There's a high risk of flooding in parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio today, which is the top level alert put out by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center when it assesses flood risks.

Four to eight inches of rain is expected today in much of this region, which has had repeated bouts of downpours over the past few weeks. Flooding is basically inevitable, and it could easily become severe and life threatening.

Gordon's flood threat will likely extend more into Ohio and Pennsylvania tomorrow. 

As noted yesterday, Ex-Gordon will actually be good for us here in Vermont. Forecasters are hopeful that it will dump one to two inches of rain on the drought landscape of central and northern Vermont Monday and Monday night.

The storm could also cause some gusty winds along the west slopes of the Green Mountains. That might cause a couple branches and maybe an isolated power failure or two, but with the rain, it will be worth it.

HURRICANE FLORENCE

As noted yesterday, high upper level winds did a number on Hurricane Florence, reducing it to a sloppy mess of a tropical storm with top winds of only 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Florence this morning. After being torn into a mess
 by upper level winds over the past couple of days, the storm
is now looking more symmetrical, a sign that it will soon
restrengthen, possibly rapidly. 

Those upper level winds are easing this morning, and Florence is definitely reviving, according to this morning's statement from the National Hurricane Center. 

Strong thunderstorms near the core of the storm are growing, and Florence is getting more organized again. It will almost certainly be a hurricane again by tomorrow.

Florence is heading westward into a zone with light upper level winds and hot ocean water. This is a perfect environment for hurricanes and Florence is expected to intensify quickly.

It could even achieve Category 5 status - the strongest and most dangerous hurricane type possible.

Which puts the East Coast in the United States in peril. Florence has certainly been unpredictable, but  at the moment, all guidance wants to push Florence toward the East Coast. It's still impossible to know whether it will plow ashore or curve to the north and miss the United States for a close miss.

If it does crash ashore, nobody is sure where. The first guess right now is somewhere near the Carolinas but that's iffy. If it does threaten the United States, it won't be until near the end of this coming week. Stay tuned on this one, because it has the potential to turn into another hurricane nightmare for the United States.

Even after its winds die down, the risk for torrential rains on saturated soil makes me too nervous to think about

By the way, nobody has any idea whether Florence will have any effects here in Vermont.

TROPICAL STORM HELENE

This time of year, disturbances come off the west coast of Africa and then move westward into the open Atlantic. Often, a few days after they leave Africa, these disturbances become tropical storms or hurricanes.

It's very rare that a disturbance will turn into a tropical storm almost immediately after leaving Africa, but Tropical Storm Helene has done just that. It's still only got winds of 45 mph, but Helene is expected to strengthen rapidly into a hurricane.

The good news is early indications are the Helene will curve to the north far out over the Atlantic Ocean and miss most populated areas.  Of course, we originally thought Florence would do that, so it's worth it to keep a watch on Helene.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE

Another disturbance moved off the west African Coast a few days ago and it's now getting its act together to the west of Helene. It's now called Tropical Depression Nine, but will soon be named Tropical Storm Isaac.

This one really bears watching. It's expected to move pretty much due west over the next five days and approach the Lesser Antilles Islands in about five to six days as a hurricane. From there, it's anybody's guess, but this one could threaten ultimately threaten places like Puerto Rico again. (ugh!) and possibly the mainland United States.

It's too soon to speculate, but this could be a worrisome one.  There is plenty of time for it to decide to miss land, so we don't have to panic over Isaac yet.

HURRICANE OLIVIA

Meanwhile, in the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Olivia is spinning way out there with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph as of this morning. It's slowly weakening, but still could approach Hawaii early next week, so we'll have to watch that.