Tornado Risk Today And Coming Week In South; Flood Concerns Here In Vermont

Tornadoes, some possibly strong, are expectd in the South today,
especially in the red-colored area. The threat spreads east and north
on Sunday.

As advertised, today looks like a dangerous day in parts of the South, especially in Louisiana and adjacent parts of Mississippi, southern Arkansas and eastern Texas.

Here in Vermont, spring appears to have finally sprung, but that brings some flood risks. I'll get to that after we deal with the bigger weather news of the day.

The focus today is on the Gulf Coast. As of now, the table looks set for a tornado outbreak in this region. Some of the tornadoes look like they will be strong and stay on the ground for long periods of time.

It's always possible that there could be pleasant surprise and the atmosphere might not line up perfectly for severe storms and tornadoes. But most forecasters are pessimistic.

Already, early this morning, an intial band of thunderstorms, some severe, were heading north through northern Louisiana. Once they clear out, that will set the stage for even worse storms later today.

A tornado watch was already up early today in southwestern Texas. At least one supercell thunderstorm was already roaming that region before dawn, which gives you an idea how much potential there is for trouble.

The energy helping to produce those storms is heading northeast.  Most of the ingredients for a lot of tornadoes are setting up in Louisiana. The air is unstable. The sun will heat the atmosphere and worsen that instability.

Strong winds will blow overhead, and those winds will change direction with height. Let's just hope the bigger tornadoes that do develop stay out in open country and not through any bigger towns.

Tomorrow, the risk of severe weather and tornadoes moves east and expands to a broad area mostly along the Appalachians from Pennsylvania to Florida. High winds, hail and tornadoes are all possible in this area, especially in parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast.

The bottom line is that a large chunk of the southern United States better have their weather radios close at hand, and have a plan to get to a safe spot if a tornado warning is issued.

Normally the rule is, if there's a tornado watch, that means twisters are possible, and you should continue your routine but keep a sharp ear out for any warnings. A tornado warning means a twister has been spotted or indicated on radar, and you'd better get to a safe shelter, pronto.

With the risk of larger tornadoes this weekend, I'd advise people who live in less-sturdy mobile homes or manufactured homes, especially those that aren't tied down correctly, to take an even more cautious plan.

People who live in this type of house ought to play it safe and leave even if there's "just" a tornado watch. Just hang out at a friend's house, a friend who lives in a home with a very good storm shelter or secure basement.

The risk of severe storms and tornadoes will continue much of this week. After a lull on Monday and possibly Tuesday, another strong storm system looks poised to spin up more tornadoes across the South and middle of the nation Wednesday and Thursdays.

The parent storms that are spinning up these tornadoes will affect us here in Vermont. Not with tornadoes, which is a good thing, but with possible flooding. Details follow:

VERMONT RAIN

This motorist was tempted to take his
chances crossing a flooded stretch of
road during spring flooding in April, 2015
near Enosburg. He saw me filming and
decided he didn't want to be part of an
embarrassing YouTube video. He
wisely decided to turn around
rather than proceed.

It was gloriously the first truly spring morning outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont when I took the dogs out early this morning.

Temperatures were in the 50s, birds were singing like crazy and there was that delicious organic aroma in the air of springtime mud and new growth.  Tiny daffodil shoots shot up a couple inches more overnight.

A cold front was also making its way through Vermont, but since it's not a strong front, and we're starting off so warm, today will be the mildest day so far this year.

While highs in the 60s to a few 70s in the southern Champlin Valley and lower Connecticut River valley are not unusual for mid-April, they sure are welcome.

This warmth is now eroding and melting the deep snow pack still in the mountains. Next up, the storm that will produce the weekend tornadoes in the South is heading in our direction.

Rain will break out Sunday afternoon and continue well into Monday.  Rivers will be rising a bit even before it starts raining because of today's warmth. Add an inch or so of rain with the upcoming storm and more melting snow, and you'll have some flooding problems.

Which is why the National Weather Service has issued flood watches for Vermont and adjacent New York from Sunday night into Tuesday. 

I'll let the National Weather Service in South Burlington do the talking for a bit here. According to their hydrology discussion this morning:

"Some of the more susceptible basins include the Ausable, Missisquo, Passumpsic, Otter Creek, Winooski, Lamoille and possibly the Mad River. Sharp river rises are likely beginning Monday. Most main stem rivers are expected to crest during the day Monday based on current indications. Any mountain streams or small rivers will be very susceptible as well, especially Sunday night into Monday."

In other words, this is going to be a statewide problem.  In a few spots, the flooding might be had enough to force evacuations. We'll see. If told by emergency managers to get out because of flooding, absolutely do so!

One of the biggest and most persistent risks in flooding are those people who insist on trying to drive over flooded roads. Don't. Especially don't be one of those morons that drive around barriers put up because of the flooding.  This type of idiot then gets stuck, putting themselves and their rescuers at risk.

By the way, this time of year, flood waters are obviously very cold. If you get stuck in the water, hypothermia sets in wicked fast.

The next storm late in the week, the one that will bring that second round of tornadoes to the South Wednesday and Thursday, also looks like it will come toward New England. It's too soon to say how  that will affect things, but there's the risk of some more moderate to heavy rains with that one. If it does rain hard with the second storm, there could be a renewed flood threat.