Tornadoes Sweep Parts Of Midwest As Expected, Illinois Not As Hard Hit

Massive tornado yesterday in Jonesboro, Arkansas

As expected, tornadoes swept through parts of the Midwest Saturday, but luckily there have no reports of deaths so far, and only relatively minor injuries. There is a lot of damage, though.

Illinois had been expected to be the epicenter of the tornado outbreak and they did have tornadoes in that state.

But tornadoes were more heavily concentrated to the west in Iowa, and the most destructive of the tornadoes hit to the south, in Jonesboro, Arkansas and the neighboring town of Brookland.  

Dramatic videos of the tornado is at the bottom of this post.

In Jonesboro, a rapidly developing tornado quickly became strong and destroyed a shopping center and numerous homes, Local television station KAIT in Jonesboro reported only six injuries from the twister, which is amazing considering the destruction it caused.

The mayor of Jonesboro put everybody in town under curfew last night, ordering them to stay in their homes so that emergency workers could look for more people that needed help.  They also needed to clear streets of a huge amount of debris and fallen power lines.

Lots of people have seen this photo of a Jonesboro doctor behind
glass so he can protect his one year old from coronavirus. On
Saturday, the family's home was destroyed by a tornado.

Maybe the saddest result of the tornado involves a Dr. Jared Burks and his family. He's been on the front lines of the coronavirus outbreak.

A photo taken by his wife Alyssa went viral recently. It showed the doctor watching, behind glass,  his one-year old son.  They must stay separate in case the doctor contracts the virus.  

The Jonesboro tornado destroyed the Burks family home Saturday while the doctor was in it. He wasn't hurt and his family was elsewhere, but the whole thing is just too cruel.  A GoFundMe page is set up for the Burks family. As of early this morning, people donated more than $25,000 to the family.

A total of at least 17 tornadoes have been so far confirmed across the Midwest Saturday.  Several homes and other buildings suffered extensive damage in Iowa and western Illinois.

Today, some severe thunderstorms are possible today in western New York and Pennsylvania, and in the Southeast Monday and Tuesday.

Up here in Vermont, we'll just get a couple rainy days today and Monday.  If any flooding occurs here, it will be very spotty and minor.

Some videos:

Videographer Mike Lane took this dramatic video of the tornado.

 

Zachary Hall too this video of the tornado destroying the Mall at Turtle Creek in Jonesboro:



Here's what scary live coverage of the tornado looked like on KAIT-TV in Jonesboro. The amount of debris in the air at 1:40 to 1:50 into the video is incredible:

 

Wet, Wet, Wet: Incredible Rainfall In Nation's Middle; Vermont Soggy, Too

A sad aerial view of farmland in Illinois, near the Indiana border. Image
via Twitter by Chad Colby @TheChadColby

I've begun my annual late spring/early summer sabbatical in Yankton, South Dakota and I was very dismayed by the landscape as our plane began its descent Friday afternoon into the airport in Sioux Falls.

It was May 31, and most of the expansive fields beneath us hadn't been planted yet. Too wet. The Big Sioux River had also spread out into rich farmland, forming a long lake near Sioux Falls. The Big Sioux River is now way, way too big.

During the 90 minute car drive to Yankton, many fields looked like marshes. Rural side roads were closed either by mud, or the fact that the flooding Big Sioux, Little Sioux, Vermillion, James and other rivers had submerged all the low water crossings.

This was all a testament to how incredibly wet it has been in the middle of the nation. Shockingly, this swampy scene in southeastern South Dakota is nothing compared to incredible rains in floods just to the south, in Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri and other states.

Yes, it's been quite wet in my home state of Vermont (more on that further down in this post) but the never-ending rains are just overwhelming for millions of people in the Plains and Midwest.

MIDWEST SWAMPED

The Weather Channel says that parts of southern Kansas picked up about 60 percent of their normal annual rainfall in May alone.

Kansas City had more than a foot of rain, good enough to make this May the wettest on record and the third wettest of any month. Bartlesville, Oklahoma had more than 15 inches of rain during the month. Some pockets of northeastern Oklahoma reported more than 20 inches of rain during May.

As you've seen on the news, record, devastating flooding continues, especially along the Arkansas River in Oklahoma and Arkansas.

NPR reports that Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson said the Arkansas River flood is costing the state $23 million a day. The flooding will go on for at least a week - if it doesn't rain. Unfortunately, the area around the river can expect another one to five inches of rain over the next week, with locally higher amounts.

Levees built 60 years ago along the Arkansas River were not designed to withstand a flood this high, and lasting this long. The longer the flooding lasts, the more water can seep into the levees, which can cause failures. The Arkansas River has been high since March.

Even worse for the overall national economy, much of the Mississippi River has been flooding since March. It's the longest flood on the mighty river since 1927. When this river floods, barges can't move along the river. Farmers who actually have fields dry enough to plant can't because critical seeds, fertilizers and other supplies that normally come up on barges along the Mississippi can't, reports Fox News. 

The Mississippi has been blocked by flooding so that locks and dams don't work between St. Paul, Minnesota and St. Louis, Missouri. "We have never had the river closed for this long in a single year, Tom Heinfold, chief of operations for the U.S Army Corps of Engineers told Fox News.

WET VERMONT

Storm clouds gather over Lake Champlain near St. Albans on
May 10. It was a wet day in a very wet month. 

The situation has not been nearly as desperate in Vermont. There's really no flooding of note during May.

Lake Champlain had been in minor flood stage all month, just yesterday finally falling below flood stage for the first time since April 20. It was the second longest flood recorded on Lake Champlain. Only the epic flood of 2011 lasted longer.

The Lake Champlain flood sustained itself through May because of the incessant rains in Vermont and New York. Burlington had 5.15 inches of rain during May, which is 1.7 inches above normal. That's not any kind of record, but the rain was consistent. Measurable rain fell on 19 days during the month.

It was also cool and cloudy, which helped prevent evaportation. The mean temperature in Burlington ws 54.9 degrees, which was 1.4 degrees cooler than normal.

It was even wetter and colder in eastern Vermont. Montpelier had 5.75 inches of rain which is 2.38 inches above normal. Temperatures in the Capital City ran three degrees colder than normal for May.

St. Johnsbury takes the prize for a miserable May. They had 7.04 inches of rain in May, which is 3.68 inches above normal and has to make this May among the top 10 wettest on record there. St. Johnsbury also had a bone chilling May, with the temperature running four degrees colder than normal.

CLIMATE CHANGE FOOTPRINTS

The nation's wet weather is consistent with climate change. Yes, a hotter world can make droughts worse, because if there are no  handy storms around to drop rain, the higher temperatures encourage evaporation, drying things out faster.

(As an example, northwestern Vermont had a very humid summer last year, but had few storm systems to interact with the humidity. The summer was also record hot, so the combination of heat and missed opportunities for storms made us temporarily fall into a drought.)

But hotter air can hold more moisture. If there are storms that create lift in the atmosphere, you're going to get precipitation. If there's more "precipitable water" as they call it in the air because of a warming climate, it will rain harder.

As NPR reports: "According to the most recent National Climate Assessment, 'The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events across the United States have increased,' especially in the northern and central parts of the country.

That means, although this flood is breaking records across the central U.S., it may not be the last time officials, in infrastructure, will be forced to deal with a disaster of this magnitude. On the Arkansas River, levees were built more than 60 years ago in most cases, and were not necessarily designed to withstand the kind of constant onslaught of high water that comes with a multiweek flood."

This flood is all part of a recent trend, we can say that. Last year was the wettest on record for the nation as a whole. This year, at least so far, is giving that 2018 wet record a run for its money.

Saturday Morning Update: Dangerous Day In South Today

Especially in the orange section of this map, people
should be on alert for severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes today. 

Just a brief update for Saturday morning with this alert:

People who live in a broad path from northeast Texas through Arkansas and on up into southern Missouri, Illinois and Indiana really ought to be on guard today.

A whole variety of dangerous weather is breaking out there, including widespread flooding, severe thunderstorms, and, likely tornadoes. A few of those tornadoes could be strong.

It's been raining hard for days in this area, so flooding is already ongoing. A huge batch of rain today is going to make things worse.

A strong disturbance will also make winds change directions with height, a great recipe if you want an early season outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

The two biggest metro areas that seem to be under the gun today are Little Rock and Memphis, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

Especially in the purple and red sections of this map,
people should be on alert for looding today 

Also note that since the ground is saturated in those areas, strong winds would make it easier for trees to become uprooted during those strong winds in severe thunderstorms.

I'm impressed by the big size of today's high risk of flash flooding. According to the National Weather Service, that area extends from the southeastern corner of Oklahoma all the way up into Ohio.

Flooding has already taken a big toll this week in Ontario, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and elsewhere. At least two people have died in the flooding, and other deaths were reported during the week a bit west of the flood zone where freezing caused traffic crashes.

The St. Joseph River in and near South Bend, Indiana has reached a record crest and prompted plenty of evacuations.

The same storm that is likely to cause havoc today in the Mid-South will arrive in Vermont Sunday. There won't be anything too scary here, but it will be an ugly day in the weather department.

Expect snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain changing to rain as temperatures stay raw all day in the 30s. Gusty southeast winds of up to 40 mph will add to the ickiness of Sunday's weather.

It'll stay a little warmer than normal through most of next week. Many daytime highs will be in the 40s. It looks like maple sugaring season is off to an early start.

VERY Bad Severe Weather Outbreak Today In Southern Plains, Mississippi Valley

Areas in orange and especially in red are at definite risk of
very severe thunderstorms and tornadoes today. 

Forecasters with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center are very worried today about the likelihood of an outbreak of very serious severe weather today from Oklahoma and Texas into the Tennessee Valley.

The atmosphere down there is as extremely unstable as it can possibly get, so tornadoes, some of them strong, widespread hurricane-force wind gusts and hail that could become the size of baseballs, softballs or even grapefruit are all good bets today.

The Storm Prediction Center says the instability in the atmosphere in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas are at near record levels, so that's ominious.

In Arkansas and surrounding areas, thunderstorms will likely develop explosively today. I don't think people will have much time to react to thunderstorms that start as a tiny shower, and within minutes, become dangerously severe or tornadic thunderstorms.

In addition, forecasters say that along northeast side of where the thunderstorms develop, probably in northern Arkansas, and the southern half of Missouri, a dangerous derecho might develop.

Derechos are long-lasting, intense lines of thunderstorms that hit wide areas with damaging straight line winds. Wind speeds vary within the path of a derecho, but some spots that are hit can have wind gusts of 100 mph or more in the stronger derechos.

Forecasters say today's possible derecho would probably be strong, with winds like that. There might be embedded tornadoes with today's derecho as well.

Especially a bit to the west and south of this derecho, in eastern Oklahoma, far southwestern Missouri, maybe the southeast corner of Kansas and parts of northern Texas, strong tornadoes and gigantic hailstones are quite possible today.

Some of this activity is going to hit some pretty populated areas, such as Tulsa, and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, St. Louis and Kansas City, Missouri, Little Rock, Arkansas, Wichita, Kansas, and Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee.

Tornadoes, Some Expected, Some Not.

The tornado that was pretty much unexpected
sweeps across an Ohio field Monday.  

As is often the case as we approach spring, there's been a few tornadoes over the past couple of days in the nation.

There were a few in Arkansas Sunday, and these were remarkably well forecasted. As many as two days before they touched down, forecasts focused right on Arkansas as ground zero for the risk of severe storms.

And that's where almost all of the severe weather occurred. You can see a very eerily lit, striking tornado in Arkansas Sunday at the bottom of this post.

Today, at least one tornado touched down in Ohio. While meteorologists issued a timely warning when it became apparent there was strong rotation indicating a tornado, twisters were considered to be highly unlikely at most in Ohio today.

Sure, forecasters knew there would probably be thunderstorms in Ohio today, tornadoes seemed almost completely out of the realm of possibility.

But there you go. Just because tornadoes are unlikely in any given place when there's thunderstorms, they're not impossible. Scientists know a lot about how tornadoes form, why they form and when they form.

However, they don't know everything about what leads to tornadoes. Ohio today was your proof.

By the way, there's a possibility of a tornado or two today in far eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and perhaps far southern Wisconsin.

You'll see a video of the Ohio tornado, below the video of the Arkansas twister. It was filmed near Star City, Arkanas by Live Storms Media:



Next, we have a fairly close range of the narrow EF1 tornado in Ohio that damaged at least one house and several other buildings. Here it dances ominously and seductively across a field:

Huge Mess Of Ice And Snow From Arkansas To New Jersey

Car far off the road in icy Memphis, Tenn. this morning.
Photo via Twitter, @local24rodney

Believe it or not, the weather is arguably nicer in snowbound Boston, Massachusetts this morning than it is in places like Little Rock, Arkansas and Memphis, Tennessee.

Oh, sure it was ugly in Boston this morning. At 5 a.m., for instance, the temperature was 1 below zero, winds were from the northwest gusting to 38 mph and the wind chill was 25 below.

Plus, Massachusetts is so mired in feet of snow I don't know how they'll ever dig out.

However, the next winter storm is hitting places like Little Rock and Memphis. In those two cities, freezing rain had been falling for hours as dawn broke.  Travel is next to impossible there, so good luck getting to work today if you live in that general area.

Really, just work from home. Assuming you have electricity. Enough freezing rain is going to fall in parts of Arkansas and Tennessee today that trees, branches and power lines will snap. You'll hear lots of news today about the power failures and crashes there.

It's all spreading east, too, so places like northern Mississippi and Alabama,  the northern suburbs of Atlanta, Georgia, and big towns like Raleigh, North Carolina are due late today, tonight and tomorrow for freezing rain, scary traveling conditions and power failures.

North of that line of freezing rain, the Ohio Valley is getting hammered by snow. It's already snowing at a pretty good clip there, and that should, if anything, pick up in intensity during the day.

Some areas of Kentucky could receive up to 15 inches of snow, and six to 12 inches will be common. In places that approach 15 inches of snow, those are near record deep accumulations for a snowstorm.

Winter storm warnings extend all the way to Washington DC, Virginia, Maryland and southern New Jersey, where four to ten inches of snow is expected, mostly tonight.

Most of the big snows have steered around the Washington DC area this winter, so this will be a switch for them. This will likely be the first real good snowstorm they've had all winter.

The storm causing this is not super strong, certainly not like the nor'easter that slammed eastern New England the Canadian Maritime provinces over the weekend.

But this new system, traveling east, eventually through Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, then off the Carolina coast, has plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture to work with, and plenty of Arctic air to the north to feed into the system.

Hence, the huge mess.

In places that get the heavy snow and ice, it's going to stick around for awhile, as another blast of Arctic air slumps its way into the eastern half of the nation.

The storm still looks as if it will give a glancing blow to New England instead of a full-throttle dumping. Things could change, but the best guess from the National Weather Service in Massachusetts is two to four inches, mostly south of a Hartford,  Connecticut to Boston line.

Given the bad luck New England has had, though, there is one more complication. A finger of lower air pressure poking into eastern New England from the Atlantic could linger as the storm passes Wednesday.

The setup is called a Norlun trough. It is very hard to forecast much in advance if it will set up, and exactly where. These troughs don't cause heavy snow over a vast area, but can over a more localized zone, say, 40 or 50 miles wide.

If a Norlun trough were to set up somewhere in Massachusetts on Wednesday, that would just be crushing. Literally even, as there's so much snow on roofs that some are caving in.

We just have to hope our old buddy Norlun stays away from New England this week.

By the way, the cold, and possibly outbreaks of snow, will linger through the end of the month in the Northeast.

Unlucky As Hell: Arkansas Buildings Hit By Two Tornadoes Within 11 Days

Farm building in England, Ark. destroyed by
a tornado Monday. The same area was hit
by another tornado 11 days earlier.
Photo from KARK

Talk about unlucky:

During that big severe weather outbreak in the South on Monday, some buildings in England, Arkansas were hit by a tornado. Those very same buildings were hit by another tornado just 11 days earlier.

According to a report from the National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas, an EF-1 tornado packing winds of up to 90 mph damaged the structures. The tornado that hit on October 2 was of similar strength.

I don't think I've ever heard of two tornadoes going over the same spot within two weeks of each other.

The Monday tornado tore down a fence at a home at which the owner had barely replaced because the previous one was destroyed on Oct 2, television station KARK reported. 

I think the homeowner should just give up on fences.

The Arkansas storms were part of a large outbreak of bad weather that prompted 326 reports of severe weather, including 18 tornadoes, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

Luckily, or at least I hope, Arkansas is done with severe weather for a little while at least.

Wild Security Camera View of Narrow, Intense Ark. Tornado

A skinny, but destructive tornado swept through parts of Batesville, Arkansas last week.  

Another view of the skinny Batesville, Arkansas tornado last week.  

The EF-1 tornado had winds of  between 86 and 110 mph. It was 75 yards wide and traveled for about 3.3 miles. It injuried two people at a day care center.

As tornadoes go, this wasn't the biggest monster you can get, but it's still impressive watching it on video.

Here's an awesome security camera video of the twister hitting:

Nation's Tornado Nightmare Continues Today, Tomorrow

Destructive, deadly tornadoes continued raking much of the nation's midsection and south yesterday and overnight, and as dawn broke today, the danger continued.  

The giant, deadly tornado churning through
Mayflower, Arkansas Sunday evening.  

The worst tornado so far was one that took a long track through central and northern Arkansas.

It was chilling to, from my very safe perch in Vermont, watch a live feed of television station KTHV in Little Rock try to warn people in towns like Mayflower, Vilonia and El Paso, Arkansas take shelter from the approaching monster tornado.

Simultaneously, I had the Arkansas State Police scanner on, and moments after KTHV warned these towns of the storm, you'd hear dispatchers and police sending ambulances and rescue vehicles to these very towns that had been warned.

However, the tornado was so strong and wide in many cases, taking shelter might not have saved people, especially if they didn't have a basement.

And somebody posted a disturbing video on Twitter that showed destroyed cars and screaming, injured people on Interstate 40 in Arkansas after the tornado crossed the highway. Police said miraculously, nobody died on the highway.

At least 18 people died in the tornadoes, most of them in the Arkansas tornado or in another one that Quapaw, Oklahoma.  

From @Amy_Hawley via Twitter, a tornado flings
debris in Baxter Springs, Kansas on Sunday.  

Another wave of severe thunderstorms slammed the tornado ravaged part of Arkansas hours after the original huge twister hit. Flash flooding is also now a threat in the tornado zone.

Earlier Sunday evening, my heart sank as reports of a large, dangerous tornado was approaching Joplin, Missouri, which was devastated with a huge tornado that killed about 160 people in May, 2011.

That tornado, while spreading destruction and death, pretty much missed Joplin.

I'm afraid there might be more deaths today, as more strong tornadoes are likely in the Deep South and southern Ohio Valley today.

We'd been lucky this year up until now with tornadoes in the United States.

I guess our luck has run out.