Already Causing Damage, Epic Northeast U.S. Storm To Get Much Worse Today

Tree on a house in Milton, Massachusetts this morning, in
this image from WBZ via Twitter. Expect lots more wind
damage in the Northeast today.

Early this morning, the long-awaited severe storm in the Northeast was consolidating off the New Jersey coast and intensifying rapidly - bombing out, as they say.

Weather conditions are getting worse, as expected, and today will be a wild ride of destructive winds, even worse coastal storm surges and battering waves, flooding rains and punishing, heavy wet snow.

This will be a day to remember in much of the Northeast.

Before the storm had really had a chance to intensify to full strength early this morning. In the eastern United States, roughly 400,000 homes and businesses were already without power as of 6 a.m. That number will surely increase big time.

A tree had fallen onto a house in Maryland, trapping a 100-year-old man, who was later rescued and taken to the hospital with injuries.

Around Washington DC, Maryland and Virginia, the National Weather Service is not messing around with warnings. The high wind warnings and special weather statements down there say to expect a prolonged period of wind gusts to 60 or 70 mph, with winds now dying down to below 30 mph until Sunday.

Winds have already gusted to 67 mph at Dulles airport.

So it will take forever to get power restored. A special weather statement from the NWS has this to say to people in Washington DC, Maryland and surrounding areas: "Pedestrians will face very hazardous conditions, and need to be aware of wind-borne projectiles. People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows."

That's not your routine high wind alert, is it?  Many businesses are closed as a precaution, as are all federal offices in the Washington DC area.

As of 6 a.m., there were already many reports of wind damage in the Mid-Atlantic states, and the wind intensity will only rise today as the storm intensifies.

Early this morning in southern New England, wind gusts were "only" mostly in the 35 to 50 mph category, but as the storm ramps up, winds are likely to gust as high as 80 mph along the coast and 50 mph as far west as the Berkshires.

In mid and higher elevations of Massachusetts, especially from Worcester County west, the heavy snow and high winds guarantee lots of fallen trees and power lines.

All eyes, of course, are on the coast, where the worst destruction will occur. The forecast hasn't changed, and coastal areas from North Carolina to New England are in for a terrible battering today and tomorrow.

In Massachusetts, they're still bracing for possible record high storm surges and immense waves that will destroy houses and flood large areas. Since this will happen through three or four high tide cycles today through Saturday, the damage could end up being immense.

If New England gets lucky, the most intense part of the storm could hit at low tide, which would help, but don't count on it.

The worst of the heavy, wet snow is hitting a good portion of central and western New York, on down into the Catskills. It's also seriously affecting many areas of inland Connecticut, Massachusetts and southern Vermont. A few places in New York State might end up with two feet of new snow.

Thundersnow was reported in western New York last night. Some areas of that region and the Catskills already had 10 inches of new snow by dawn.

It's possible enough cooling will bring snow even to the coast in New York and New Jersey today. We'll see.

This is one scary storm

VERMONT EFFECTS

The forecast for today hasn't changed much for Vermont, with northern sections of the state escaping with just typically lousy March weather. Some places way up near the Canadian border might not get much snow or cold rain at all.

As of 8 a.m., snow had spread as far north as Burlington, Vermont, but Milton, just a few miles to the north, had no snow.

Southern Vermont, though, is in for a pasting with heavy, wet snow, wind and power failures. Schools in that part of the state are closed, as you'd expect. According to the Vermont Outage Map, there were more than 1,600 homes and businesses without power already in southeastern Vermont.

A winter storm warning is still in effect for far southern Vermont today.

Update On That Big, Maybe Dangerous Northeast Storm That's Coming

Storm surges and battering waves batter the Massachusetts
coast in early January. The upcoming storm might create
similar scenes in New England Friday and Saturday

I was working outdoors in my yard in far northwestern Vermont on Tuesday, down to a t-shirt and getting an early jump on preliminary spring cleanup.

It was sunny and warm, like a nice day in April. Daffodil shoots are starting to come up.  

In February!

I shouldn't get used to this. Neither should you.

An oncoming storm, though not particularly cold, has the potential to raise havoc across the Northeast, including perhaps Vermont. And this will introduce a long period of normal March weather going well into the middle of March at least.

The biggest concern, of course, is this big storm, which has long been advertised.  There's still LOTS of uncertainty with how this storm will play out on Friday. It's Wednesday, so usually we have a moderately good handle on how storms will behave two days from now. But this one is so complex, a  lot of things could change before it arrives.

Computer models yesterday suppressed the storm a bit to the south, which would have minimized impacts here in Vermont while continuing to make things bad along the coast from New Jersey into southern New England.

This morning, the models have the storm further north, which puts at least parts of Vermont in play, while continuing to threaten lots of bad things along the southern New England, Long Island, New Jersey and Mid-Atlantic coasts.

Today, the storm will be organizing across the South and Gulf Coast, threatening more heavy rain in regions that got deluged over the past week or two. Flood watches are up from northeast Texas and Arkansas on up into Kentucky and Tenneseee.

There could be severe thunderstorms and maybe a tornado or two today in northeast Texas, northern Louisiana and parts of Arkansas.

The storm will move from the southern Plains to near the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday night, while a secondary storm will form off or near the New Jersey coast.

The coastal storm will become the main player. It will strengthen and move very slowly near the coast Friday before lumbering slowly offshore later Friday and Saturday.

With astronomical tides being high this week, with or without a storm, this storm is still expected to cause a bunch of coastal flooding.

The southern New England coast and parts of Long Island appear to be especially under the gun with coastal flooding, and coastal flood watches are already in effect for Friday and Saturday.

There could be major coastal flooding in certain places especially around Gloucester, Newburyport, Boston Harbor, Revere and Scituate, Massachusetts. It's possible things could get so bad that shoreline homes could be badly damaged or destroyed. At the very least, roads and streets will become inundated, and basements and first floors could get flooded.

Areas along the coast are also at risk for very strong winds with this system. Also, several inches of rain might fall in southern New England as well. Wet snow might fall inland.

VERMONT IMPACTS

With the coastal storm now seeming like it wants to hug the coast more and be a little further north than yesterday's forecasts, it now looks like parts of Vermont are under the gun for some trouble with this storm.

There's already a winter storm watch up for western and central New York for the initial storm that will come up to the Great Lakes, followed by Atlantic moisture streaming in from the new, stronger low along the coast. These areas could see five to nine inches of wet snow out of this.

In Vermont, it still looks like the greatest effects will be in southern and central parts of the state, though all of Vermont looks like it will get some precipitation.

There isn't a lot of cold air for this storm to work with, but once a strong storm forms, it creates its own pool of chillier air, and that might be enough to change rain in some parts of Vermont to wet snow.

This is one tricky forecast, and what happens depends on the exact placement of the storm, the timing, and the amount of cooling aloft. There is the potential, anyway, of heavy wet snow, especially in the mid and higher elevations of the southern and central Green Mountains.  The wet snow, combined with expected strong and gusty east winds could really create some power failure problems in the southern half of Vermont.

Speaking of wind, this might be a good set up for especially strong and damaging winds along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, especially in the southern half of the state.

Another thing to watch out for: Especially if the marginal temperatures between snow and rain stay a little on the warm side, there might be enough rain in parts of Vermont to cause some flooding potential. Again, the greatest risk is in central and southern Vermont.

Things could change, but northern Vermont looks like it will have unpleasant weather Friday, with rain, snow, or a mix and some gusty winds. However, if the forecast trend to bring the storm further and further north, the top half of Vermont could also see some real problems with this system.

This forecast is based on what the National Weather Service is saying. They almost guarantee, as do I, that there will be shifts in the forecast as we get closer to the actual storm. The system is a meteorologist's headache, with lots of moving parts, and it has a high bust potential.

Giant Storm Update: Mid-Atlantic States Still Totally Screwed

Traffic hopelessly mired Wednesday evening near Washington
DC after an inch of snow made roads icy. So what are
they going to do with the 20 inches forecast over the weekend? 

Well, this doesn't bode well.

The Washington DC area and its surrounding suburbs are still expecting a blizzard, with one to two feet of snow and strong winds Friday and Saturday.

Wednesday evening, a little mini-preview storm rolled through Our Nation's Capitol, dropping maybe an inch of snow.

Everything fell apart. Traffic came to a standstill on the ice and there were tons of accidents. Even President Obama's motorcade got stalled in the mess and kept sliding off the roads.

Things are still snarled down there this morning.

An inch of snow mired Washington. What's 18 inches going to do?

If I lived in that region, I'd just hibernate and forget the whole thing.

It's pretty impressive that the forecasts have remained pretty consistent regarding this storm for three days now, at least.

The forecast still calls for the heaviest snow - one to three feet - to fall in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the central Appalachians.  A few cities in Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland might end up having their largest snowstorms on record.

Also, as I mentioned yesterday, the expected deep snow is what everybody's talking about, but the biggest danger to life and property are coastal floods and surges, a likely nasty ice storm in the Carolinas, and possible tornadoes along the Gulf Coast, and in and near Florida.

Let's break it down again:

SEVERE STORMS/TORNADOES

There's an enhanced risk of severe storms and tornadoes today, especially in much of Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. An enhanced risk, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, means numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop.

In this case, the storm that will cause the Mid-Atlantic blizzard and ice is gathering strength as it travels from Texas toward the Carolinas. As it does so, it will draw warmth, moisture and instability from the Gulf of Mexico, leading to the tornado and severe storm threat.

The threat of severe thunderstorms and maybe a tornado or two will spread into northwestern Florida Friday.

SEVERE ICE STORM

As I said, everybody's talking about all the snow that looks like it's going to fall, but some people are in for a very dangerous ice storm with this one.

Pinning down exact locations and amounts of freezing rain are always tough with these kinds of storms, but the target area looks to be central North Carolina, parts of South Carolina and maybe southeastern Virginia.

The scene in Raleigh, North Carolina during a snow and ice
storm last February. Similar scenes can be expected Friday
and Saturday in North Carolina as snow and ice move
in. Photo byLindsay Webb. 

There will probably be enough ice in these areas to bring down trees and power lines. This being the south, all this ice is going to create a HUGE mess in the Carolinas.

This storm will end up reminding of that famous photo from last winter, when a snow and ice storm resulted in a car fire, lots of stuck cars and chaos on a Raleigh, North Carolina road.

I'd stay home Friday through the weekend if I lived in the Carolinas.

COASTAL FLOODING

Another aspect of the upcoming storm that hasn't been getting enough attention is the coastal flooding that's sure to hit the shores from Virginia to Long Island.

Most of the coastal flood watches mention moderate to major coastal flooding through three high tide cycles this weekend. The moon is full, so that makes the high tides associated with the storm even higher.

Sea levels that have increased in recent decades due to global warming and East Coast land sinking will help make matters worse with this storm.

Many forecasters are expecting tides in some areas to be among the top five highest on record. Huge battering waves amid 60 mph winds will make it even worse. I'm afraid we're going to see images on the news of beachfront homes crumbling, being ripped apart by waves or being washed away by the storm tides.

This piece of the storm is especially dangerous, so coastal communities from Long Island to North Carolina ought to be super, super careful.

OK, WE'LL MENTION THE SNOW:

Blizzard watches are up for Washington DC and Baltimore, Maryland and in the New York City area and Long Island. Winter storm watches and warnings are up for a huge area from Arkansas to New York.

This is forecast to be the second or third deepest snowstorm on record for Washington DC. I don't think they'll beat the record of 28 inches set in 1922.

But 20 inches or so of snow is not going to be a happy time for our nation's capitol. Maybe all those people running for president will drop out of the race today, because they don't want to live in a town that shuts down in an inch of snow, never mind two feet.

It won't help that the winds will gust to 55 mph or so during the storm, so maybe we'll get lucky and the drifts will cover the Capitol building burying all those Congress creatures, putting them out of sight, out of mind.

Seriously, though. Anybody who needs to prepare for this storm better do it today. Assuming the roads improve from last night's epic inch of snow.

Up in New York City and Long Island, less snow is forecast than in Washington, DC. The Big Apple is forecast to get maybe 8 to 12 inches of snow, along with those strong winds.

The forecast for New York has a big bust potential. They'll be near the northern edge of the storm's heavy snow. If the storm jogs just a tiny bit north, New York could get MUCH more snow than foreast.

If the storm curves just a wee bit south, New York would get barely a few inches, if that.

In some of the hardest hit areas, especially in West Virginia, western and central Virginia and the North Carolina mountains, I still wouldn't be surprised if we get some reports of three feet of snow out of this.

Eventually, all this snow will melt. If it goes to quickly, it could maybe lead to flooding down the road. Long range forecasts for a little over a week for now call for above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall in areas that are expected to be hardest hit by this blizzard.

It never ends, does it?

Thursday Morning Joaquin Update: Bahamas Screwed, East Coast Worries

Thursday morning visible satellite view of
major Hurricane Joaquin trashing the Bahamas. 

Hurricane Joaquin continued to strengthen steadily yesterday and overnight and now it's a powerhouse major hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph.

It could strengthen a little more today as it pounds the Bahamas. It's going to be a terrible disaster for them. A slow moving, major hurricane is shredding those islands today.

For the U.S. East Coast, the future of Joaquin is still totally uncertain, and there seems to be some major shifts going on in its forecast track.

I do know Joaquin is evolving into something very, very different than we thought several days ago.

Before we get into the details, three important things:

1. Anyone in the Bahamas should already have gotten their hurricane preparations done. This is going to be a terrible disaster there, with extreme wind damage, giant storm surges and torrential rain.

Yes, I know predictions of forecast tracks of
hurricanes looks a little like this, but the
science of understanding everything about hurricanes
like Joaquin is still ot fully formed.  

2. The forecast for the Mid-Atlantic concerning Joaquin is more uncertain than ever, but what is certain is the area from North Carolina to southern New Jersey is in for torrential rains between now and Monday, no matter what Joaquin does. Expect some major flooding

3. Everybody along the coast from North Carolina all the way up through New England and southeastern Canada ought to keep a close eye on Joaquin.

It's a dangerous storm and there's a chance anybody in these areas could get clobbered. Plus, again with or without Joaquin, most of these areas are in for several days of high tides and beach erosion.

OK, so yesterday all of us weather geeks were talking about the European computer forecasting model, which was telling us Joaquin would stay out to sea and avoid the United States.

Most of the other models turned Joaquin northwestward and had it smashing into the coast somewhere between North Carolina and southern New Jersey.

This morning, the computer forecasting models, fed with oodles of new data provided by a bunch of weather balloon launches, satellite analysis and other cool nerdy stuff, have decided the European model might have been on to something.

That doesn't necessarily mean the Euro was completely right, which presents a serious conundrum for the East Coast. Maybe Joaquin won't go nearly as far east as the Euro was suggesting. For what it's worth, since Monday, the European has been a little better at forecast Joaquin's track than most other models, but that doesn't always mean it will stay correct.

Flooding in Portland, Maine Wednesday. I pretty
much guarantee similar scenes from the Mid-Atlantic
states over the weekend, with or without Joaquin

Some of the models are still insisting Joaquin will smash into North Carolina or Virginia.

Others have a dangerous hurricane heading into heavily populated Long Island and southern New England. Still others have it clipping Cape Cod, while others have it plowing into southeastern Canada.

If it heads north, the winds will weaken with Joaquin as it hits cooler ocean water and strong upper level winds, but it would still be a formidable threat.

The bottom line: Keep watching this thing. If you have coastal property anywhere between North Carolina and southeastern Canada,  batten down the hatches and be ready for coastal flooding and severe beach erosion starting now and lasting through the weekend.

If you're in the Middle Atlantic States, be ready for nasty flooding well in advance of Joaquin, starting today.  Remember, this flooding is going to happen even if Joaquin stays 1,000 miles away.

For thr rest of the East Coast, it is frustrating that still nobody knows where Joaquin will go. That's the nature of hurricane forecasting. Predicting these things has gotten a LOT better in recent years, but we still have much more to learn to forecast these things more accurately and much more in advance.

Monday Morning Update: The Blizzard Of 2015 Is Still On, Big Time

I don't know if things will get THIS bad, but the
Northeast is still on track for a huge blizzard tonight
through Tuesday.  

A quick check of forecasts and computer models and such has revealed little change in the overall forecast for the Blizzard of 2015 in the northeastern United States.  

As the storm draws closer, and during the storm, us weather geeks will get excited or focus on all kinds of particular computer model outputs with this storm

Forecasters will keep fussing with picky details of the storm, based on new information that will keep churning out.

They'll raise or lower expected snow totals slightly in given areas, raise or lower wind speeds, that kind of thing.

For the general public, don't get too hung up on subtle tweaks in the forecast. Whether you get 15 or 20 or 30 or 40 inches of badly windblown snow, the impacts are going to be HUGE.

In that respect, who really cares if you get 23 or 24 inches of snow?  I'll get into some of the picky details a bit later in this post.

Already, the effects of this storm are being felt, and it hasn't really even started snowing yet. Airlines are cancellling flights left and right, and by early Monday morning, more than 2,000 were gone by the wayside for today and tomorrow.

If you're planning on driving anywhere in the Northeast today, don't bother. You'll probably make it to where you're going today, as things won't be too bad, but then you'll be stuck there as the blizzard blasts in tonight and tomorrow.  And who knows how long it will take to clear the roads when the snow tapers off Wednesday?

There's still time to get ready this morning and early afternoon. Especially if you live in the blizzard warning zone, lay in some supplies in case you're stuck at home for a few days.

Though I wouldn't panic like this guy:



Instead of panicking over BREAD AND MILK!!!  get some nonperishable food (in case the power goes out and the refrigerator doesn't work) your medications- enough to last several days, some bottled water to drink and for hygiene, and some flashlights, batteries and that type of thing.  Oh, and make sure smoke and carbon monoxide detectors work and get some extra batteries for those, too.

You might want to keep your smart phones and such fully charged, too, in case the power does go out.

Once the storm starts, stay inside. Near the beginning of the storm during the day today and perhaps early this evening,  it won't be snowing that hard in most places so you might think, "This isn't so bad."

Then the real heavy stuff comes and you're stuck in your stalled, freezing car out on the Interstate until gawd knows when.  Not a nice place to die of exposure or carbon monoxide poisoning, let me tell you.

If you want to take pictures and video during the blizzard, go right ahead. But do it right near your house so you can get inside right away and not get stuck out there.

Check in on your elderly neighbors, too, to make sure they're doing OK during the blizzard.

As I noted, the overall forecast hasn't changed. Nobody has substantially changed the areas under blizzard or winter storm warnings. The expected areas of heaviest weather haven't shifted much at all.

If you want glimmers of good news (or bad, if you like extremes) there's a chance, just a chance, that New York City won't get as much snow as some of the higher end forecasts. But 18 to 24 inches at this point still looks like a good bet, and with winds expected to gust as high as 55 mph in the Big Apple, this is still going to be, as the National Weather Service puts it, a crippling and life threatening storm.

Up in New England, I see almost no changes in forecasts from Sunday evening. The National Weather Service headquarters in Taunton, Mass. is fussing with details of whether one or two particularly heavy snow bands set up northwest of the storm center and where those bands will be located.

Nobody is quite sure on that topic, but within those semi-stationary bands during the height of the storm is where we'll see the highest storm totals with this. Possible three feet or more.

I'm still the most worried about coastal flooding and storm surges with this storm, as that's what will cause the most destruction. It's hard to say whether the peak of the storm surges will come with Tuesday morning's high tide or during low tide a few hours later.

But in any event, definitely continue to expect coastal flooding and very nasty beach erosion. The flooding will be moderate in some areas, severe in a few others. I continue to worry that some houses in coastal Long Island, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Maine and especially Massachusetts could b badly damaged or destroyed.

Most of the snow in the blizzard region will be powdery, which means the strong winds will blow the snow off trees and power lines. That's a good thing, as that would minimize the risk of power failures. But with such strong winds, power failures are still a big threat.

In some coastal areas, like eastern Long Island, Cape Cod and the Islands, the snow could end up being wet and heavy and sticky. And those same areas are the ones that are likely to get the strongest winds, up to or even exceeding 70 mph in spots during the height of the storm.

With such strong winds and wet snow, the threat of long lasting power failures is greatest in the spots I just mentioned.

The storm, as forecast last night, will extend well into central and northern New England, where winter storm warnings are up for about a foot of snow,

The big snows look like they'll miss far northwestern New England, where it looks like at most, just a few inches of snow from Burlington, Vermont on north and west.

Don't expect the snow to melt anytime soon once the blizzard is over. Colder than normal weather is likely for probably the next couple of weeks, with maybe one or two days thrown in that aren't too, too cold.

It might even snow in the blizzard zone again on Friday, but that storm, if it forms, won't be anything close to what's coming tonight and tomorrow.

Epic New England Storm This Week Has Troubling Resemblance To Blizzard of 1978

Route 128 near Boston after the Blizzard of 1978.
UHopefully, the oncoming storm won't be as bad.  

UPDATE:

Blizzard watch has been extended westward to the New York City metro area and parts of northern New Jersey.

Latest guidance offers 1 to 2 feet of snow and winds gusting to 50 mph in that area during the storm Monday night and Tuesday


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

It turns out Saturday's messy snowstorm across the Mid-Atlantic States and the southeastern half of New England was just a warm up to the Main Event.

A potentially historic blizzard/winter storm now seems like a good bet for much of southern New England Monday night and Tuesday.

Not to scare anyone, but there are some similarities to the Blizzard of 1978 with this one, though Monday and Tuesday's storm won't be quite as bad as the 1978 disaster

If you were planning on traveling to Boston, Providence, Hartford or New York City Monday night or Tuesday take my advice: Fuhgettabout it. Stay home. Travel could become impossible in areas during the height of the storm.

This dire forecast might come as a surprise to people who weren't paying attention. It surprised the heck out of me whe new runs of computer weather forecasting models came out Saturday afternoon.

During the day Saturday, those forecasting models, which had been suggesting a big new developing nor'easter would stay far enough off the coast to give only light to moderate effects to coastal regions from Maryland to Maine.

Hoo-Boy! Now things are different. That developing nor'easter is going to hit SUPER hard and make Saturday's storm look like just a light flurry.  The National Weather Service in the Boston area is saying this could easily end up being a historic, memorable storm for New England.

As I noted,  this storm set up kind of reminds me of the incredible Blizzard of 1978. That storm killed about 100 people, dumped two to three feet of snow on southern New England, and, combined with astronomically high tides, caused one of the most destructive coastal floods in New England history. The Blizzard of 1978 also brought winds as high as 93 mph in Chatham, Mass, and 79 mph in Boston.

Coastal flooding in Marblehead, Mass during the
Blizzard of 1978. While things won't be as bad
this time, coastal flooding is a real threat
with the oncoming nor'easter in New England.  

This week's storm won't be as bad as the Blizzard of 1978. The coastal flooding, while potentially severe, probably won't be as severe as in 1978. Hurricane force gusts are possible with this upcoming storm, but they won't be quite as strong or long lasting as in 1978.

Snowfall amounts probably won't quite measure up to the 1978 disaster, but they could come close in spots.

In 1978, the warnings weren't as good with storms as they are today. In 1978, 3,500 or so motorists got trapped on Route 128 near Boston.

That this storm might not be quite as bad as 1978 shouldn't make you relax if you're in the path of this storm. This nor'easter will still probably prove to be a very dangerous and in some places destructive storm. Heed all warnings, don't go driving in this thing, and for gawd's sake if you live on the coast and they tell you to evacuate, DO IT.

The weather set-up is strikingly similar to the Blizzard of 1978. In both cases, an Alberta Clipper storm crossed (or in this case is now crossing) from the Northern Plains southeastward past the Great Lakes down to the Middle Atlantic Coast.

Once the Clipper hit the coast in 1978, and when it gets there this time, it'll transfer energy to a new storm, a nor'easter, that will strengthen explosively. Like the 1978 storm, it will move slowly northward, just off the coast of New England

Interestingly, the Blizzard of 1978 hit hardest on a Monday and Tuesday. It looks like that will happen with this one.

Things will get worse and worse as the storm moves northward. New York City and surrounding areas, could easily get a foot or more of snow out of this, with winds gusting past 35 mph causing near blizzard conditions.

Blizzard watches are flying for parts of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts.

The blizzard watches might be expanded into parts of New Jersey and might encompass more of southern New England if future forecast models keep suggesting strong winds and heavier snow in those areas.

As is the case in all nor'easters, there's still some uncertainty to the exact track of the storm and its intensity. Slight variations can bring big changes to local forecasts.

The National Weather Service in Boston is calling this pretty much a textbook example of a major, memorable winter storm for New England. Some places could easily get more than two feet of snow out of this.

Out on the Cape and Islands, winds could easily gust to 70 mph with this thing. With the wetter snow or possibl mixed precipitation out there, there's a high potential for tree and power line damage. Winds will gust to gale force across much of southern and eastern New England.

Say the NWS forecast discussion out of Taunton.

"This looks to be a serious winter storm and travel will likely become extremely difficult to impossible with near zero visibility. Considerable blowing and drifting snow is expected.

The NWS had special warnings for mariners with this one, what with the forecasted 25-foot seas and winds gusting to near hurricane force:

"This is a dangerous and life threatening storm and mariners should return to port by Monday afternoon."

And for the coast:

"Significant coastal flood event is possible along the eastern MA coast during the early Tuesday morning and late Tuesday afternoon high tide cycle......The potential for a 3+ foot storm surge may result in moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding."

Watch out places like Revere and Hull with this one!  This is the scariest aspect of this storm. According to the coastal flood watch now in effect, a few vulnerable homes could be destroyed, neighborhoods could become isolated, and authorities might order some areas evacuated.

As is always the case with severe nor'easters, there is the question of how far into northern New England the snow will get.

Certainly the snow will get much further west and north than the precipitation with Saturday's storm. Winter storm watches are up for extreme eastern New York to north of Glens Falls, the southern half of Vermont, all of New Hampshire, and much of Maine.

Again, like the Blizzard of 1978, there could be a sharp cut off between heavy and lighter snows with this. In 1978, Rutland, Vermont received 25 inches of snow, while Burlington, just 60 miles to the north, received just four inches.

It's hard to say what will happen with this one, but be prepared for snow and slow going even in northern New England later Monday night and Tuesday, just in case. It won't be as bad as southern New England, but still.

As I always say, stay tuned to later forecasts. Nor'easters, especially the epic big ones, sometimes hold surprises. Forecasters will surely be adjusting local predictions between now and the onset of this dangerous storm.

East Coast Storm Looking A Little Snowier Than Earlier Forecasts

Expect lots of activity on sledding hills across
the Northeast this weekend. The storm is going
to be a bit snowier than forecast. 

That sloppy East Coast storm moving in tonight and continuing Saturday looks like it will prove a little snowier in some areas than first thought.

The air associated with the storm is a touch colder, a little bit more to the north and west  and a bit wetter than earlier forecasts, so snowfall might be a little heavy in some areas.

One of those spots is the extreme northeastern tip of West Virginia and much of central Pennsylvania, where five to eight inches of wet snow is expected tonight and tomorrow.

This area of heavier snow, now under a winter storm warning,  is roughly between Harrisburg and State College, Pa.

The winter storm watch in parts of southern New England have been upgraded to a warning, as expected.

That New England winter storm warning encompasses a larger than the original watch, with the warning stretching through the northwestern two thirds of Connecticut. The winter storm warning also covers  most of central and eastern Massachusetts, except southeast of a line from roughly Boston to Providence, Rhode Island.

The winter storm warning extends all the way along the coast of Maine.

Expect four to eight inches of wet snow, with a little freezing rain and rain thrown in during much of Saturday for southern New England.

In the southeastern corner of New England, snow will become mixed with, or change to rain tomorrow.

Winter weather advisories have been extended to the north and west, covering western Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire all the way to the Vermont border.

In fact, extreme southeastern Vermont, around Brattleboro, is covered under the winter weather advisory. Earlier, that section of Vermont had been expected to receive very little snow.

Three to six inches of snow are likely in the advisory area.

Even in the rest of central and eastern Vermont, where no snow had been expected from this storm, there now might be dusting. No big deal, of course, but still.

Meanwhile down on the Cape, coastal flood advisories are up as this storm will kick up a storm surge enough to cause at least minor flooding, and possibly moderate flooding during Saturday's early afternoon high tide.

Winds will stir up waves that will erode the shoreline too.

We're still looking at the storm to zip on away Saturday night. An Arctic cold front will give northern New England  few snow showers Saturday night, then it looks like that long, long spell of cold, often below zero weather will begin Sunday.

All in all, the storm tomorrow is going to be a little more impressive than I first thought. I knew it would be a "bomb" and strengthen big time as it passes New England, but now it's going to be just slightly closer to the coast, meaning more effects.

This won't be a record breaker, but sections of the Northeast that haven't had much snow this winter will finally get a halfway decent dump.