Tornadoes, Storminess Is Sign El Nino Is Raging

Massive nighttime tornado illuminated by lightning
last night near Miami, Texas. Photo from @stormpics. 

It was a wild night in the Plains last night and things continue wild this morning.

There were no fewer than 38 preliminary reports of tornadoes from Monday afternoon through this morning from Nebraska to Texas.

Some of those tornado reports might be duplicates, but I'd bet there were at very least 20 tornadoes yesterday.

The tornadoes evolved into a nasty squall line, along which there were a few tornadic spinups, that was roaring across northern Texas this morning. This includes the Dallas-Fort Worth area, where there were numerous damage reports. 

It looks like Louisiana and Arkansas might be under the gun for severe weather much of the rest of today.

Meanwhile, a blizzard is raging in the High Plains of eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. High wind warnings cover an enormous area basically from Seattle all the way eastward to around the Dakotas.

Flood watches cover a large area of the lower and mid Mississippi Valley as several inches of rain are forecast over the next couple of days. Flood watches and warnings also continue in the Pacific Northwest as massive amounts of moisture flood in from the Pacific.

I do believe all this excitement is due in part to El Nino, which has become the strongest on record by many measures. 

El Nino, the periodic warming of eastern and central Pacific Ocean waters, tends to energize the jet stream, particularly when the El Nino is strong, like this one.

That means the nation is due for a very stormy winter. Not necessarily a particularly cold one, but a stormy one. That's particularly true across the southern third of the nation and along much of the Wst Coast.

So far, southern California has largely escaped the beginning of the storms, which is too bad because they need drought relief. Little or no rain is forecast there for at least the next week, and there is an elevated fire danger.

The Pacific Northwest is usually relatively dry in El Nino years, but so far, that's not the case. Possibly, the storm track off the Pacific will slip southward as we get more and more into winter, which would dry out the Northwest while soaking California.

At least the Sierra Nevada mountains, which had the lowest snowpack on record earlier this year, is starting to get winter storms. On the other side of the range. Reno, Nevada is off to its wettest start to its wet season on record.

I would also like to see research on whether this El Nino was boosted by climate change. I'm sure strong El Ninos have always happened, and El Ninos are naturally occuring, with or without climate change.

But I wonder if the water temperatures were already elevated by climate change, making it easier to attain this very strong El Nino.

That idea makes sense. An extreme weather event or weather pattern gets more extreme because it's juiced by climate change.

Plus, there is research that suggests that climate change could increase the number of "super El Ninos" like the one we're in now.

If that's the case, then the already rising trend of extreme storms could continue. In any event, with this El Nino underway, expect plenty more severe storms, floods, blizzards, wind and maybe southern tornadoes through the upcoming winter.

Joaquin Likely Heading Out To Sea; U.S. Is Screwed Anyway

Powerful Hurricane Joaquin has been battering the Bahamas
for more than a day now. Here it is this morning still
smashing the islands. 

Powerful Hurricane Joaquin battered the Bahamas for a good 24 hours or more since yesterday with 130 mph winds, so it's a huge disaster there.

Reports from the islands are still sketchy, since the storm is still raging, but there are no immediate reports of deaths, which is good. 

But the destruction has to be immense, and imagine being in winds of 100 mph or more for a day or so, not just a couple hours. 

So scary and I hope everyone in the Bahamas comes through this OK.

Meanwhile, up in the United States, people are breathing something of a sigh of relief since most computer models now keep Joaquin well offshore.

There's still a slight chance Joaquin could clip Cape Cod or Nova Scotia but the threat of a huge direct hit is over.

You'd think this is terrific news, and it is, since the East Coast will escape the possibility of getting slammed by a full-throttle major hurricane.

But overall, the news isn't good.

Meteorologists are still expecting an epic flood in the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states from a separate storm that will in part be fueled by moisture siphoned off of Hurricane Joaquin.

This isn't going to be your standard issue flood. It'll probably be a lot worse. One computer model predicts a whopping 18 inches of rain to come down on part of South Carolina.

I'm not sure there will be that much, but it's certainly plausible. I think we'll easily see over a foot of rain in some areas. Local forecasters said several Carolina cities will break records for their wettest Octobers, and do that in just that first five days of the month.

A strong pressure gradient between a very strong high pressure system over Quebec and the Carolina storms and Joaquin will make things worse. A strong pressure gradient just means there's a big difference in air pressure over a given area, in this case, the East Coast.

When there's a strong pressure gradient, there's a lot of wind. And since the wind is from the east, and extending over a wide expanse of the Atlantic Ocean, it's pushing a lot of water toward the coast.

That means there's going to be a lot of coastal flooding. Since this weather pattern will hold in place through the weekend, that means repeated bouts of flooding high tides and beach erosion. To make it worse, many coastal areas in the Mid-Atlantic states are under high wind warnings and watches.

Places were rivers meet the oceans are really in trouble. The east winds will try to push water upstream and inland, while great gushes of water from the heavy rains try to come downstream. Where the two meet on these rivers will cause incredible floods.

With all this going on, states of emergency are already in effect in several states, including the Carolinas and New Jersey.

Joaquin will miss the U.S. mainland, but this could still be a billion dollar disaster in terms of flooding and wind and high tides along the East Coast.

Here's a brief video of how Joaquin looked on Crooked Island, Bahamas:

Tuesday Evening Blizzard Update

From last night: Nightime satellite view
of the nor'easter. Click on the image to make it bigger
and easier to see.  

There's been such  hue and cry today about how many of the forecasts for New York City incorrectly called for a record or near record deep snowstorm. 

What's being ignored, it seems, is the forecast for New England was almost flawless.

But the media center of the world is New York, not Boston. If it didn't happen in New York, it didn't happen anywhere, despite what you might see out your Havahd Yahd window.

However, the forecast for the eastern half of Massachusetts was for 24 to 36 inches with locally higher amounts. and they GOT 24 to 36 inches. Westford, Mass. has so far reported the most - 35.8 inches.

With snow continuing to fall this evening, there might be a few spots that get more than 36 inches.

The National Weather Service office in Taunton, Mass., near Boston, also said peak wind gusts on Cape Cod and the Islands would be between 70 and 80 mph. The peak gust in this storm was 78 mph in Nantucket.

The NWS also said there would be significant storm surge and coastal flooding today, and indeed there was.

I'm sure other forecasting offices will refine how they make forecasts. The National Weather Service office in the New York City area knew there would be a sharp cutoff of snow amounts as you head west from the Hudson Valley.

They misjudged by only about 30 miles where that cutoff would be, which is actually a good forecast. I just don't think they conveyed to the public ahead of the storm how much uncertainty there was in the forecast

Nor'easter always confound. Up here in Vermont, the forecast was basically right in southern and eastern Vermont was basically right, although snow totals were a little lighter than expected.

Then this afternoon, one of the intense snow bands from the nor'easter broke away, and traveled westward across Vermont, and held together remarkably well, despite having to cross the Green Mountains.  

An unexpectedly heavy snow band on the outer edges
of the big nor'easter passes through St. Albans, in
northwestern Vermont this afternoon.  

The snow band slowed down to a near stall in the Champlain Valley, dumping an unexpected three to five inches of fluffy, windblown snow in just three hours or so.

What are ya going to do, right?

Anticipate more snow. It likes the northeastern United States has an active weather pattern coming up.

A weaker storm coming in from the west could drop another two to five inches of snow, mostly in northern New England.

There's the chance of another nor'easter Monday, but I'm going to hold off on more details with that because things are really, REALLY uncertain as to how that's going to develop, if at all.

And it's going to be wicked cold. Especially early next week, where 30 below zero readings in cold mountain valleys of northern New England is a possibility.

Epic New England Storm This Week Has Troubling Resemblance To Blizzard of 1978

Route 128 near Boston after the Blizzard of 1978.
UHopefully, the oncoming storm won't be as bad.  

UPDATE:

Blizzard watch has been extended westward to the New York City metro area and parts of northern New Jersey.

Latest guidance offers 1 to 2 feet of snow and winds gusting to 50 mph in that area during the storm Monday night and Tuesday


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

It turns out Saturday's messy snowstorm across the Mid-Atlantic States and the southeastern half of New England was just a warm up to the Main Event.

A potentially historic blizzard/winter storm now seems like a good bet for much of southern New England Monday night and Tuesday.

Not to scare anyone, but there are some similarities to the Blizzard of 1978 with this one, though Monday and Tuesday's storm won't be quite as bad as the 1978 disaster

If you were planning on traveling to Boston, Providence, Hartford or New York City Monday night or Tuesday take my advice: Fuhgettabout it. Stay home. Travel could become impossible in areas during the height of the storm.

This dire forecast might come as a surprise to people who weren't paying attention. It surprised the heck out of me whe new runs of computer weather forecasting models came out Saturday afternoon.

During the day Saturday, those forecasting models, which had been suggesting a big new developing nor'easter would stay far enough off the coast to give only light to moderate effects to coastal regions from Maryland to Maine.

Hoo-Boy! Now things are different. That developing nor'easter is going to hit SUPER hard and make Saturday's storm look like just a light flurry.  The National Weather Service in the Boston area is saying this could easily end up being a historic, memorable storm for New England.

As I noted,  this storm set up kind of reminds me of the incredible Blizzard of 1978. That storm killed about 100 people, dumped two to three feet of snow on southern New England, and, combined with astronomically high tides, caused one of the most destructive coastal floods in New England history. The Blizzard of 1978 also brought winds as high as 93 mph in Chatham, Mass, and 79 mph in Boston.

Coastal flooding in Marblehead, Mass during the
Blizzard of 1978. While things won't be as bad
this time, coastal flooding is a real threat
with the oncoming nor'easter in New England.  

This week's storm won't be as bad as the Blizzard of 1978. The coastal flooding, while potentially severe, probably won't be as severe as in 1978. Hurricane force gusts are possible with this upcoming storm, but they won't be quite as strong or long lasting as in 1978.

Snowfall amounts probably won't quite measure up to the 1978 disaster, but they could come close in spots.

In 1978, the warnings weren't as good with storms as they are today. In 1978, 3,500 or so motorists got trapped on Route 128 near Boston.

That this storm might not be quite as bad as 1978 shouldn't make you relax if you're in the path of this storm. This nor'easter will still probably prove to be a very dangerous and in some places destructive storm. Heed all warnings, don't go driving in this thing, and for gawd's sake if you live on the coast and they tell you to evacuate, DO IT.

The weather set-up is strikingly similar to the Blizzard of 1978. In both cases, an Alberta Clipper storm crossed (or in this case is now crossing) from the Northern Plains southeastward past the Great Lakes down to the Middle Atlantic Coast.

Once the Clipper hit the coast in 1978, and when it gets there this time, it'll transfer energy to a new storm, a nor'easter, that will strengthen explosively. Like the 1978 storm, it will move slowly northward, just off the coast of New England

Interestingly, the Blizzard of 1978 hit hardest on a Monday and Tuesday. It looks like that will happen with this one.

Things will get worse and worse as the storm moves northward. New York City and surrounding areas, could easily get a foot or more of snow out of this, with winds gusting past 35 mph causing near blizzard conditions.

Blizzard watches are flying for parts of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts.

The blizzard watches might be expanded into parts of New Jersey and might encompass more of southern New England if future forecast models keep suggesting strong winds and heavier snow in those areas.

As is the case in all nor'easters, there's still some uncertainty to the exact track of the storm and its intensity. Slight variations can bring big changes to local forecasts.

The National Weather Service in Boston is calling this pretty much a textbook example of a major, memorable winter storm for New England. Some places could easily get more than two feet of snow out of this.

Out on the Cape and Islands, winds could easily gust to 70 mph with this thing. With the wetter snow or possibl mixed precipitation out there, there's a high potential for tree and power line damage. Winds will gust to gale force across much of southern and eastern New England.

Say the NWS forecast discussion out of Taunton.

"This looks to be a serious winter storm and travel will likely become extremely difficult to impossible with near zero visibility. Considerable blowing and drifting snow is expected.

The NWS had special warnings for mariners with this one, what with the forecasted 25-foot seas and winds gusting to near hurricane force:

"This is a dangerous and life threatening storm and mariners should return to port by Monday afternoon."

And for the coast:

"Significant coastal flood event is possible along the eastern MA coast during the early Tuesday morning and late Tuesday afternoon high tide cycle......The potential for a 3+ foot storm surge may result in moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding."

Watch out places like Revere and Hull with this one!  This is the scariest aspect of this storm. According to the coastal flood watch now in effect, a few vulnerable homes could be destroyed, neighborhoods could become isolated, and authorities might order some areas evacuated.

As is always the case with severe nor'easters, there is the question of how far into northern New England the snow will get.

Certainly the snow will get much further west and north than the precipitation with Saturday's storm. Winter storm watches are up for extreme eastern New York to north of Glens Falls, the southern half of Vermont, all of New Hampshire, and much of Maine.

Again, like the Blizzard of 1978, there could be a sharp cut off between heavy and lighter snows with this. In 1978, Rutland, Vermont received 25 inches of snow, while Burlington, just 60 miles to the north, received just four inches.

It's hard to say what will happen with this one, but be prepared for snow and slow going even in northern New England later Monday night and Tuesday, just in case. It won't be as bad as southern New England, but still.

As I always say, stay tuned to later forecasts. Nor'easters, especially the epic big ones, sometimes hold surprises. Forecasters will surely be adjusting local predictions between now and the onset of this dangerous storm.