Saturday's Vermont Storms Were Rambunctious And Interesting

Despite high clouds, that were blowing off the tops of thunderstorms
dozens of miles to the south, new showers tried to get going
near St Albans, last night. Usually, these high clouds
suppress new convection 

The weather outside this Sunday morning and afternoon here in Vermont is quite a bit calmer than it was Saturday afternoon and evening, when some serious thunderstorms hit parts of the state, as expected.

It was a sort of strange looking thing on radar.  A mass of rain with a severe thunderstorm or cluster of strong thunderstorms in the middle moved northeastward through Rutland County, then up into east-central Vermont, ending up between White River Junction and  St. Johnsbury before moving into New Hampshire.  

You could track this storm via storm reports from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. Multiple trees fell around Lake St. Catherine in southwestern Rutland County. The storm moved into West Rutland, knocking down more trees, then took down more trees and power lines in Plymouth, West Hartford and especially in Windsor. The storm went on to cause more damage in Union Village and Thetford.

The thunderstorms over Vermont and as they approached had enormous anvil clouds blowing off the tops of these storms.

The anvil clouds spread all the way beyond St. Albans, producing light to moderate rain from north of Rutland to the Canadian border. I was struck by how dark this thunderstorm complex made things. It was almost like twilight in Burlington, Vermont shortly before 6 p.m., nearly two hours before the sun actually set.

There were only a few pockets of particularly heavy rain with the storms. Vershire got 2.1 inches of rain, and Woodstock got nearly two inches.

More storms are in the forecast here in Vermont, but this forecast is.....complicated. Quick-moving weather disturbances keep zipping on through and will continue to do so for the next couple of  days. Their strength, location and timing is iffy, making forecasts tricky.

There are a lot of subtle factors that are making predictions challenging. Let's start with today.  There's quite a few leftover clouds from yesterday's weather. That will keep the air over us relatively stable, reducing the chances of showers and storms.

Across northern and central areas of Vermont, there could be a quick, random pop up storm or two here and there, but most places are safe.

In southern Vermont, the Capital District of New York and parts of southern New Hampshhire weather disturbance will come in from the west late this afternoon and evening, and that will probably set off some storms.

It's possible one or two of those storms in this region could become severe, with damaging winds being the main threat.

If today's tricky to forecast, Monday is a nightmare. Yet another little disturbance will probably kick off a few more scattered showers and rumbles of thunder overnight across Vermont and surrounding areas.

We know Monday will be quite warm and humid. What we don't know is how many leftover clouds will tamp down on instability during the day. And nobody seems sure on the timing and locations of more fast-moving upper level weather disturbances coming through.

Forecasters seem pretty damn confident there will be showers and storms around Monday. In their forecast discussion, meteorologists at the NWS in South Burlington say they're struggling with a couple things, at least.

Some computer models forecast a relatively sharp disturbance coming toward the International border late in the day, which would favor scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe and especially north.

Other computer models bring a somewhat broader disturbance through earlier in the day. That would tend to create showers and storms statewide, not just in the north, but lessen the chances that the storms  would be severe.

I'm sure meteorologists will keep looking at new data today and overnight and come up with a more specific forecast by early tomorrow morning.

At this point, Tuesday looks great: Very warm - in the 80s, with sunshine and relatively comfortable humidity.

Then it gets very tricky again for Wednesday, with the threat of storms.  We'll wait to discuss Wednesday because whatever forecasts are out there now for midweek will surely change.