Next Few Days Are Perfect If You Like Showers And Thunder

A thunderstorm over Lake Champlain on August 6. More showers and
storms are likely today, and they will be scattered around most days
between now and Thursday in Vermont and surrounding areas.

UPDATE 2:30 PM SATURDAY

Thunderstorms were firing up around the Northeast and some of them are proving to be nasty.

As of 2:30 p.m., nothing major had hit Vermont yet, but I'm still pretty confident there will be a few scattered severe storms.

Some areas outside of Vermont are getting nailed. There was a tornado warning east of Syracuse, NY as of 2:30 p.m.

Flash flood warnings popped up northeast of Albany, New York and in southeastern Connecticut due to torrential rains.

Most of northwestern New Hampshire is under a flash flood watch due to expected heavy rains this evening.

So yeah, most of us in Vermont won't have it too bad, but a few of us will likely get some damaging winds, dangerous lightning and perhaps a local flash flood. Heed warnings and keep an eye to the skies!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Since late Thursday night, occasional rounds of hit and miss thunderstorms have been roaming through Vermont and northern New York.

If you like this type of thing, you're in luck. This state of affairs looks to continue at least into Wednesday. 

There might be times during this period where some afternoon and evening storms in Vermont and the rest of the North Country could become strong to severe, but it's hard to pinpoint if or exactly when and where that would happen much in advance.

The closer you are to the event, the better handle you have on things. So the forecast for today can be spelled out pretty well. We have to hope that everybody gets some good rains eventually out of this. Some parts of Vermont are wet enough, but others could stand some decent downpours.

The showers and storms have been caused by a series of disturbances zipping along in a general west to east flow over us. The last disturbance was heading out of eastern Vermont early this morning after scattering a few showers and storms here and there overnight

The next disturbance, riding hard on the heels of the first one, should get here this afternoon and evening. The area of rain and showers with this disturbance was getting into western New York as of 9 a.m. and heading steadily east. It looks as if the showers and storms will be pretty numerous between, say 1 and 8 p.m., but as always in this type of situation, not everybody is going to get it.

There's a lot of clouds left over this morning from last night's activity. If the skies clear decently, that will help the sun heat things up and increase the instability. This, in turn could lead to some storms turning strong, even maybe severe in one or two spots.

Most of us won't get a severe storm, but a couple towns might. So you'll want to be in a spot today where you can quickly get to a good shelter if you see a storm coming, or hear a severe thunderstorm warning or special weather statement.

If we get very little sun, there will be a lesser chance of strong storms but still a risk of heavy downpours, lightning, that sort of thing.

As an aside, my friends and relatives over in South Dakota really ought to watch the skies today and tonight. Out there, a greater chance of big time Plains storms exists. The biggest threats out there are very damaging winds and huge hailstones. A couple tornadoes will probably also touch down.

Back here in Vermont, Sunday, at least the way it looks now, is shaping up to be the better of the two weekend days. We'll be between weather disturbances, so there won't be much of a trigger for any additional rounds of showers and storms.

However, I'm sure by now you've noticed the humidity creeping up. That trend will continue through tomorrow and on into the beginning of the work week. With the humidity around along with subtle ripples in the atmosphere and updrafts near mountains, there will probably be a few widely scattered showers and storms Sunday afternoon, but most of us won't get anything.

It'll stay generally very warm and humid until at least Wednesday, with daily chances of more storms. As I said before, it's too soon to say whether any of them will be strong or severe. There's hope that a cold front will come through later Wednesday or Thursday to drop both the temperature and the humidity.

It's getting toward the end of summer, so we will only have a few more of these humid spells before autumn arrives.