After A Nice Tuesday, One More Vermont Severe Weather Threat

Areas in yellow, and to a lesser extent in dark green
have some risk of severe storms on Wednesday. As you
can see, all of Vermont is in this area.

A cold front came through the Northeast late yesterday, which will create a gorgeous late summer day today.

That cold front fired up some strong to locally severe thunderstorms over the eastern half of New England and down the eastern seaboard Monday afternoon.

That front is not done with us yet.

It'll come back north as a warm front Wednesday morning, setting the stage for potentially another round of strong to severe storms in New England, this time maybe including here in Vermont

The humidity will remain low today and much of tonight, but creep back up toward morning. As the warm front lifts north of us, it'll be oppressive by afternoon.

A couple of cold fronts and several other boundaries will be approaching from the west. Upper level winds will strengthen and change direction with height. The humidity and warmth will help feed storms.  The potential is there.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont and surrounding areas solidily in a slight risk zone for severe storms on Wednesday.  The biggest risk would be straight line wind damage. NOAA has not ruled out a couple supercell thunderstorms and maybe a brief spin up tornado somewhere in the slight risk area, but that's certainly not guaranteed.

Of course, there's caveats to that stated threat.

I absolutely agree with the National Weather Service in South Burlington in their weather discussion today. It seems that a day or two before a potential round of severe weather this summer, it looks like ingredients are coming together to produce the bad and dangerous weather.

But when the event arrives, other factors limit the ability for storms to become widespread and severe. A few big storms pop up in these situations, but they're thankfully not as numerous and nasty as first feared. So who knows? The forecast for tomorrow's storms might be a bust. You never know.

In this case, a series of disturbances, basically little mini weather fronts will likely come through during the afternoon and evening. All these could increase cloud cover, which would limit instability. And the little mini fronts might tend to dilute the atmospheric ingredients that need to come together for severe storms.

Still, keep listening to forecasts and if you're out and about on Wednesday, keep an eye to the sky, a weather radio close by and be ready to go inside if storms are approaching. Even if the storms don't turn out to be severe, lightning is always a danger.

More cold fronts will come through Thursday night and Friday, ushering in a hint of autumn for Friday and Saturday.