That Arctic Blast Everybody's Talking About And What It Means For Us

Do you like cold weather? Head to Minnesota. These were temperatures
there this morning. Expect this and worse in Minnesota and the
rest of the Midwest most of this week.

The big Arctic blast that everybody's been hyping in the Midwest seems to have started kind of before it began.

An initial surge of bitter air settled over an area centered around northern and central Minnesota - and  surrounding areas - this morning, setting some awfully nasty record low temperatures in the process.

Meanwhile, the main surge of Arctic air should surge across the Canadian border tomorrow. For parts of the western Great Lakes and Midwest, this will be the most intense cold wave in at least a few years.

It won't be the worst ever, contrary to what some clickbait types are telling us, but it will be impressive.

For us here in Vermont, we'll have our share of bitter air with this, but it won't be as bad as our friends to the west are experiencing. I'll get into how Vermont fares in a bit.

First, we go west. Checking the weather in International Falls, Minnesota early this morning, their conditions were dense freezing fog, with a temperature of 45 below. That's not the wind chill. That's the actual temperature.

That 45 below was a new record for the date, beating 36 below in 1966. It was a record 40 below in Hibbing, Minnesota and 47 below in Ava, Minnesota.  They can keep that.

On Saturday, it was 23 below in Madison, Wisconsin, colder than any reporting station in Alaska. (It's a bit on the warm side for this time of year in much of Alaska.

It will get worse out there in the Midwest. The temperatures probably won't go that low again this upcoming week, but the wind chills with the  main Arctic outbreak this week will be ridiculous.

Low temperatures this week in cities like Minneapolis, Chicago, Des Moines and Detroit could easily fall to levels not seen since the 1990s. Minneapolis could get well into the minus 20s. Chicago might flirt with 20 below, too.

Of course, cold snaps of this magnitude used to be more common, but have gotten more rare with global warming.

As dangerous as this cold wave will be for the center of the nation - and it is a dangerous cold wave - it won't last nearly as long as some of past historic cold waves, like those in the 1930s and to a lesser extent those in the 1970s.

By next weekend, temperatures in the Midwest will be rebounding to levels that are chilly, but nothing out of the ordinary for early February.

I also want to add a hype alert: You will see it in the headlines all week, "OMG!! Polar Vortex Invades US! We're all DOOOMMMED!!!!!!!!!!!

Um, no. Pieces of the Arctic polar vortex do break off and head south from time to time, occasionally reaching the United States. That's what's happening this week, and it's not that weird. Although the intensity of the cold will be worse than usual, it's not unprecedented.

During a similar weather pattern in 1996, the temperature fell to as low as minus 60 in northern Minnesota. It won't get that cold this time.

VERMONT EFFECTS

We in the Green Mountain State will certainly feel the effects of this Arctic blast, but it won't be as bad as it's likely to be in the Midwest.

The Arctic air is coming almost due south from the northern reaches of Canada straight down into the northern Plains and western Great Lakes. It will move fast and  not have a chance to warm up even a smidge by the time it hits the United States. That's why places like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois are going to be hit so hard with this.

From there, the Arctic air will head east, across the Great Lakes toward us. The comparatively warm waters of the lakes will modify the air a little bit. Also, once the bitter blast gets as far south as the United States, it will be exposed to more sunshine than areas in northern Canada. That will take a little bit of the punch out of the chill as well.

That said, it won't be a picnic here in Vermont. This cold wave will probably be on par with the one we had last Monday. That means from Wednesday into next weekend, we'll have subzero nights and early mornings, and high temperatures in the single number and teens, which is definitely a lot colder than normal.

Wind chills will be brutal, too, especially Wednesday and Thursday. This won't be the worst cold wave ever in Vermont - not by a long shot. But it will be unpleasant, that's for sure.

Before we get to the chill, we have some more snow to talk about. As of mid-morning today, Sunday, January 27, there are already snow showers and blowing snow around Vermont amid gusty south winds.

Those south winds are bringing a bite to otherwise relatively mild air that will take us to near 30 this afternoon.

The big news today is something that on radar looks like one of those summer time thundery, gusty squall lines heading toward us. In today's case, that's a line of snow squalls that seem destined to come through Vermont during early to mid afternoon.

This line of squalls will hit some areas harder than others, but a lot of us face the prospect of a brief period of very heavy snow, terrible visibility on the roads, which will suddenly become slick, and some relatively strong gusty winds.

Snow accumulations today will only amount to one to three inches, but in many places those snow squalls will be a danger.

Monday, a modified piece of that Arctic air from Minnesota will be here, giving us a chilly day. Tuesday will warm up to near 30 degrees ahead of that main cold front. A complex storm along this front at this point looks like it could give us a few to several inches of snow.

Then the Arctic blast hits. Enjoy the ride!

Unprecedented Extreme Weather In Recent Days Has Climate Change Fingerprints

Day lily shoots beginning to sprout in my garden in
northwestern Vermont today after unprecedented
February heat. Very weird. 

On Thursday, when Burlington, Vermont reached 63 degrees to establish a new all time record high temperature for February, I said that was one of the weirdest weather days I'd ever seen.  

Then Saturday came along. The temperature in Burlington soared to an unbelieveable 72 degrees, smashing the monthly record set just two days earlier.

And it broke the record by nine degrees, a margin I'd previous thought to be impossible for any monthly record any time of year.

I have to say Saturday really blew my Vermont weather mind.

The 69 degrees in Bennington Thursday broke the record for the hottest recorded temperature in the entire state of Vermont for February. That was broken Friday by a 71 degree reading in Bennington, followed by Burlington's 72 degrees Saturday.

Whew!

Add to that the dozens of all time February record highs in cities across the nation in the past month. And the very odd severe weather outbreak that prompted tornado warnings Saturday as far north as Pennsylvania and New York, which is much further north than I've ever seen in February.

They're even investigating whether a tornado touched down in western Massachusetts.  In February, when everybody is supposed to worry about snowstorms, not twisters.

Then there's the incredible California storms this winter, and the deep northern New England snows that preceded the record warmth before it all melted away.

The weather is really off the rails, that's for sure.

What's going on?

CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCE

I'll start with caveat that you've heard before, but it's important for context. A single weather event, even one that is extreme as we saw Saturday is not proof that global warming exists, and is not solely caused by global warming.

A lot of influences that had little or nothing to do with global warning were all factors that caused the wacky weather.

Still, what has happened with the weather in recent weeks is consistent with what climate scientists have said would happen in a warming climate.

Damage from a possible tornado in western Massachusetts
Saturday. If confirmed, it would be the first recorded New
England tornado in February. Photo by Alex Kant.

The scientists keep saying the extremes keep getting more extreme with global warming, and the extremes happen more frequently.

Of course, you get more frequent and stronger heat waves with global warming (duh!), but the phenomenon can also cause bigger floods, bigger droughts, possibly bigger storms, even occasionally bigger cold waves.

It can also relocate where storms hit. Maybe tornadoes will hit further north earlier in the season than usual. That idea is not proven by climate change scientists, but it makes sense.

If it's warmer and more humid in the winter further north than it used to be, severe storms and tornadoes could move more north, too. After all, warmth and humidity is one ingredient necessary for severe thunderstorms.

The bottom line is , like it or not, global warming is here, and ou should expect more extremes.

What's happened with weather in Vermont over recent weeks and decades shouldn't be taken as the definitive proof of global warming.

But it illustrates the way things change.

INCREASING EXTREMES

Weather records for Burlington, Vermont go back to the 1880. There's always been weather extremes, and you can pick them out:

Two enormous blizzards in 1888. 64 degrees in January, 1906. 100 degrees in July, 1911. A devastating flood in November, 1927. A terrible hurricane in 1938. Huge summer heat waves in the 1940s.

When it comes to weather, things happen.  

Will climate change give us a stormier future?

It's just that now, the pace of the extremes has picked up, and gotten more extreme.

Picking apart the Burlington climate data further, he's one example of what I mean.

The previous record for the hottest February temperature on record was 62 degrees on February 19. 1981. That was broken by that 63 degree reading Thursday, then the 72 degrees Saturday.

Meanwhile, until 1990, the earliest 70 degree reading in the spring was on March 20, I think 1903. That record was broken relatively recently, in 1990, when it got up to 72 degrees on March 15. Then that record was broken just last year, when the temperature reached 70 on March 9. And that earliest 70 degree record was broken Saturday.

Plus,  remember that previous record earliest 70 on March 20? That was replaced just five years ago, in 2012, with Burlington's earliest 80 degree record on March 20 that year.

I suppose all these records aren't incredibly consequential for most of you who live in the real world.

But then add on the increasing pace of extremes during all times of the year in Vermont. And add all those extremes practically everywhere else in the nation and the world and things get really screwed up fast.

Unlike temperatures, which you can measure precisely, the definition of "extreme" is more subjective.    That's especially true if you're trying to determine whether the frequency of extreme weather is increasing. How do you measure that?

There's no precise way.

However, there's obvious real world consequences to this rising tide of extremes. (Which includes literal rising tides in vulnerable coastal locations.)

CHANGING OUR LIVES:

This new regime of extremes is changing our lives. I said that the winter heat waves of recent years in Vermont aren't radically alterning your life, but they are affecting you.  

Flooding along Lake Champlain in Colchester, Vermont
in 2011. Will we need to get used to more extremes
like this record flood?

Vermont depends upon winter tourism. All that snow in mid-February was great, but resorts across the state watched helplessly in the past few days as all that snow dissolved.

Maple sugarers have had to adjust their season and start earlier than they used to. No sugaring was ever done in February when I was a kid. Now it's routine.

Plus, you have to wonder how the warmth on recent days will affect the length and quality of this sugaring season.

Here and further south, trees and plants are budding, and they will inevitably get nipped with a return of more normal weather in March.

Did the Vermont apple crop get damaged? Will the peach crop further south in the United States get wiped out because it's been warm for weeks and a big cold wave will come down from Canada in March, as almost always happens?

Then you start thinking about the apparent overall increase in storms, droughts, floods and whatnot in Vermont, the United States and the world, and pretty soon you're talking about lots of real lives and real money.

Sounds bad, and I don't have the policies or the plans on how to deal with it.

We're all pretty much not totally capable of completely adapting to the changes and extremes in the weather and climate. But we're going to have to do our best.

The weird weather in Vermont over the past few days was a novelty.  Future extremes might be more dangerous than shorts and t-shirt weather in February.

It's going to be a wild ride.