"Chilly" Weather Thunderstorms Continue To Hit

As showers and some strong thunderstorms eased over Vermont
Saturday evening, this cloud gave one last attempt at
a good shower. It was over southern Quebec, as seen
from Franklin Counth, Vermont. I call this an incompetent
cloud, bcause it looked confused and not quite sure
what to do. 

Before we launch into today's stormy post, I  have to reassure you that despite the headline above, the rest of today, Sunday, is shaping up to be a beauty.

The sky is blue, the humidity is low, and there's a nice breeze. That state of affairs will continue for the rest of the day.

The brighter sunshine will warm temperatures up well into the 70s. If you have anything to do outside today - hike, swim, picnic, barbeque, pick blueberries, garden, whatever, get right out there and do it!

There probably will be a few pretty puffy clouds around, a lingering legacy of some cold air aloft that produced some surprisingly vigorous showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

We usually associate strong thunderstorms with humid, hot weather. That is indeed usually the case. However, in the summer, if there's an unusually intense pool of cold air aloft and high level winds are stronger than usual, you can get some good storms.

The sun is still quite strong in August so the ground heats up fast. This creates updrafts. These updrafts encounter the colder air aloft, which encourages further updrafts. Soon enough, these grow into showers and thunderstorms.  These storms can "grab" some higher winds aloft and bring them to the surface.

These "chilly weather storms" are less widespread and less intense than what we can get ahead of a cold front in steamy hot weather, but they can be pretty rambunctious.

Friday, winds gusted to 40 mph in many evening storms. A few storms Saturday probably could be classified as severe. At the Champlain Valley Fairgrounds in Essex Junction, Vermont, a tree was snapped and exhibition stands were lifted and moved by strong thunderstorm winds.

Severe thunderstorm warnings went up in central Vermont and around Addison County as these storms moved through.

These cooler thunderstorms have a greater risk of hail than other warmer storms. Dime-sized hail came down in Essex Junction, and there several other reports of pea-sized hail in Vermont. In Maine Saturday, hailstones became as big as ping pong balls, so that was something. Strong storms hit southern Quebec and New Brunswick, too.

The air aloft is now a bit warmer than yesterday, and a high pressure system is moving in, which encourages sinking air. Sinking air encourages sunshine. Still, with some lingering chill aloft, some updrafts will get around the sinking air, which explains why we'll get a few of those puffy clouds this afternoon. Those clouds will add to the beauty of the photos you might take today.

On Monday, a weak cold front will approach us from Canada. The air ahead of this cold front will be a little warmer, but still not particularly warm and certainly not humid for this time of year.

The front will add some lift to the air, so despite the lack of heat and humidity, one or two storms could become strong again in the afternoon, especially in northern Vermont.

Video: This person in New Brunswick, Canada, made the best of a hail storm Saturday. The stones even served as a chilly snack:

Storm Threat Vermont, Rest Of Northeast Today

Stormy weather over Lake Champlain
last month. Similar scenes are
possible today, and I'd postpone the
boating excursion because of the
threat of strong storms and
lightning today. 

Just a head's up that it could turn noisy and bumpy in the weather department here in Vermont and much of the rest of the Northeast today.

Relatively humid weather is in place and a disturbance in the eastern Great Lakes will set up a lot of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

A few of them were already roaming around as of early this morning. I noticed a severe thunderstorm warning at around 6 a.m on the eastern shores of Lake Ontario, for instance.

This is going to be another one of those hit and miss deals, typical of summer. Almost all of us will get rain today. Most of us will hear thunder. Some locations will get a decent big noisy thunderstorm.

And a few - definitely not many - unlucky folks in Vermont and surrounding regions will be on the receiving end of severe weather, which includes the possibility of damaging winds, fairly big hail and local flash flooding.

Actually, I think the biggest threat from today's storms is flash flooding. Again, only a few places, if any, will have high water problems. But the ground is still fairly wet. The storms will be kind of slow moving and some will contain heavy downpours.

A few storms might dump up to two inches of rain in an hour or two, which is at the threshhold at which flash flooding can start.

So, it's the usual summer drill. Keep an eye to the sky, listen for any local weather warnings from a trusted meteorlogical source, and by all means, don't drive onto flooded roads. Just turn around and take a detour for gawd's sake.

Things will taper off tonight. Tuesday, there will only be a few isolated afternoon showers and storms around so it won't be that big a deal.

First Decent Severe Thunderstorms Of Season In Vermont

A large tree fell  and blocked Route 105 between Sheldon
and St. Albans, Vermont Sunday during a severe thunderstorm
Wires were down, too as you can see.  

Well, this was convenient for me.

Thunderstorms developed in Vermont Sunday, and there were a couple isolated severe thunderstorms.

The worst one was just up the road from my house in St. Albans, Vermont, so it was easy for me to storm chase, as I like to do.

Vermont storm chases aren't anything like what goes on in the Midwest and Plains, when chasers have close encounters with large, dangerous tornadoes.

Chases here are much safer. By, say Oklahoma standards, Vermont's Sunday storm wasn't that bad, but for us it was.

The damage was pretty much exclusively in the form of fallen trees and power lines in a concentrated area of the northern parts of St. Albans, and adjacent Sheldon, Franklin and Highgate.

The storms I was in were dramatic enough, with incredibly heavy rain - rainfall rates were close to two inches an hour. The winds were strong, and there were a few dime-sized hail stones pinging off my truck.

This big tree fell and barely missed a house during
a severe thunderstorm in Sheldon, Vermont Sunday.  

It wasn't the worst thunderstorm ever, but I've never had so much trouble getting back home after a chase.

The major routes south from Sheldon and Highgate back to St. Albans were all blocked off by fallen trees and wires.

So were all the back roads I tried. Finally, someone was able to clear a tree from Route 207 coming out of Highgate so I made it out.

Boy, we needed the rain, though. The storms started to train in northern New York. By that I mean a string of storms kept going over the same spot, over and over again.

That prompted flash flood warnings in parts of the northern Adirondacks, as a few places got a quick four to five inches of rain out of the storm train.

The train briefly continued into the northwest corner of Vermont. But aside from the initial severe storm I chased, the storms weren't intense by the time they got to Vermont. So no serious flooding.

And bonus! My gardens were parched before the rain.  The storm at my house in the southeastern corner of St. Albans wasn't at all severe, but I did get a downpour out of the storm, followed by a few hours of repeated showers. That helped a lot.

Here's a very raw video compilation I took of Sunday's storms, that kicked off Vermont's summer storm season:  The video is most intense toward the end:

Houston Drowns Again In Epic Flood

This guy for unknown reasons drove into deep Houston
floodwaters Monday and had to be rescued by
a TV reporter doing a live report nearby.  

You've probably seen the news out of the Houston, Texas area, where at least five people have died in massive flooding due to record downpours Monday morning.

More than 11 inches of rain came down on Houston Monday, its rainiest day on record. And that 11 inches came before noon.

Rainfall ranged up to 17 inches in just 12 hours or so, and many areas around Houston reported a foot of precipitation.

News footage showed vast neighborhoods under water. Damage is immense. There's a couple videos at the bottom of this post that you just have to see.

As always with these extreme newsworthy weather events, you get the question:

Was this caused by climate change?

Some would say yes. But, the answer is much more complicated than that. For that matter, so is the question.

The online magazine Slate put out this Tweet Monday: "Houston is flooding - again -- and climate change is a major reason why."

The link to the actual Slate article, written by Eric Holthaus, is correctly more nuanced that the Slate Tweet.

As Holthaus writes:

"Since the 1950s, Houston has seen a 167 percent increase in the heaviest downpours - defined as the umber of days where total precipitation exceeded the heaviest one percet of all local events -- one of the fastes rates of increase anywhere in the country.

That's exactly what's expected to happen as the climate warms, since warmer air can hold more water vapor than cooler air.

An increase in the frequency of heavy rain events has long been considered one of the likeliest consequences of global warming, and a recent comprehensive National Academies report endorsed this link. 

Blocking weather patterns like this weekend's may be happening more often due to climate change, boosting the likelihood of heavy rainfall events, according to a new study published last week."

Two points to consider about Holthaus' writing.

First, the more minor one: If you're going to get a blocking pattern, they're much more likely to happen this time of year, in the spring, than other times of year.

A blocking pattern often happen when cold pools of air in the upper atmosphere get cut off from the jet stream, which steers weather systems generally from west to east across the northern hemisphere.

Picture receding water after a flood. When the water subsides, puddles remain behind. Those are like those cold pools of air that block weather patterns this time of year.

The jet stream retreats more and more to the north this time of year, so, like that receding water leaving those puddles behind, the receding jet stream leaves those cold pools of air behind.

Blocking patterns are not at all unusual in April. Still, Holthaus is absolutely correct when he says  says that the blocking weather patterns have gotten more common.

Another good point Holthaus makes shows that climate change isn't the only thing making the Houston flood worse.

He writes:

"This is at least the fourth major flood in the Houston area in just the past 12 months, with previous flooding events last May, June and October pummeling Texas hard."

(Editor's note: There was also some pretty bad flooding in Texas in December, too)

"The triangle between Dallas, Houston and San Antonio is sometimes referred to as 'flash flood alley' because of its dangerous mix of hilly terrain, sprawling urbanization and frequent heavy downpours, adding to the region's already considerable vulnerability to climate change."

It's true that downpours in Texas are getting more frequent and worse over the past few decades. Simultaneously, the area has been paved over with freeways and parking lots and strip malls and housing developments and so on.

The water can't soak through all that pavement, as it used to soak into the ground. So the water runs off during heavy rain, and the flooding is thereby worse than it otherwise would have been.

But asking whether the event is climate related is the wrong question. As Dr. Marshall Shepherd reminds us, weather is influenced by lots of things, and one of them is often climate change. But teasing out what part of it is climate change is difficult.

Think of a very great Major League Baseball batter who hits a lot of home runs.  Then let's say the batter decides to go on steroids. He now hits even more home runs.

He would have hit a lot of home runs without the steroids, so how do you figure out which home run was caused by steroids and which were caused by his natural talent. You can't tease those apart so easily.

Climate change puts weather on steroids. The weather hits more "home runs" in the form of more and bigger extremes. There would have been a lot of weather extremes anyway, but this just add juice, pardon the pun, to the system.

One of the most iconic videos from Monday's Houston flood has to be the guy who mysteriously drove into a flooded underpass as a television reporter was doing a live standup.

The reporter had to rescue the confused guy:



Drone footage shows huge neighborhoods around Houston under water:

Thursday Evening Thoughts On Epic East Coast Blizzard

I have to wonder if the Mid-Atlantic states will
look like New England after the epic
Blizzard of 1978 shown here. 

I'll get to some forecast and news updates about the giant nor'easter and blizzard about to slam the eastern United States, but first some thoughts:

You get a mix of emotions when there's an enormous storm about to hit any part of the country.

The most important piece is, and I hate to say it, people are going to die in this. No question about it.

Some might succumb to potential tornadoes this evening. People might die in traffic accidents on icy roads. Maybe a tree will fall on a house in a North Carolina ice storm tomorrow, killing someone in a bedroom.

Maybe somebody will have a heart attack shoveling snow. Or a snow-clogged vent will poison somebody with carbon dioxide. A coastal flood surge might drown somebody, or give them a fatal case of hypothermia as they get soaked in the towering waves on the Jersey shore.

I'm being morbid here, I admit. All but a handful of the tens of millions of people affected by this storm and blizzard will be just fine, and they'll have fun stories to tell to their grandkids.

Luckily, with ever big snowstorm or
blizzard we get a good sense of gallows humor. 

Still, even weather weenies like me, who live in a spot that will suffer absolutely no effects from this storm, get a little shiver of excitement at big storms like this. (I live in sunny northwestern Vermont, where not so much as one snowflake will come down from this big storm.)

Which means you do get a little pang of guilt over the thrill of a storm, knowing that this thing could really hurt somebody.

Like people at a wake or a funeral, sometimes we resort to humor to deal with this jumble of emotions. Yes, this isn't nearly as fraught as losing a close relative or friend, but the idea is the same.

There's lots of humor floating around this storm. Much of it is recycled from past storms, but that's OK. You also want the familiar along with the laughs.

The ever-reliable Onion offers us a whole laundry list of tips to "survive" the blizzard.

Among The Onion's tips: Purchase a CB radio to maintain lines of communication with other lunatics in your neighborhood; steer wildly when you hit the first patch of ice while driving;  be one of those idiots who buys all the bottled water at the supermarket;  and most importantly, criticize your mayor.

Now, this interlude.

A third grade teacher named Mary Morris in Strawberry Plains, Tennessee has come up with an awesome parody of Adele's exquisite, dramatic, but overplayed song "Hello" reworked as "Snow"

It has all the drama a fed-up teacher deals with in anticipating a snow day, as almost every school on the East Coast south of New England is experiencing.

The video is coming up, but sample lyrics:

"We need a snow day tomorrow
At least a good delay."

And:

"I love it when I get the call
and I don't have to work at all."

And:

"If it's going to be this cold
the least it could do is snow.
If I have to keep my students inside one more time for recess
I will lose my mind"

Here's the video. But scroll down beneath the video for the latest news and updates about the storm:


STORM NEWS UPDATE 

You just saw drama, or melodrama at least, in the above video, but the drama of the storm has certainly gotten going this Thursday afternoon and evening.

As expected, severe weather has developed in Louisiana and Mississippi, and it's spreading east. There have been a few tornado warnings this afternoon, but I haven't seen a confirmed tornado report yet. That could easily change.

As I write this at 5:30 p.m. EST, there were a few tornado warnings in central Mississippi, so this is definitely a developing story.

I'm very struck by the extremely close between the adjacent tornado watch and winter storm warning in northern Mississippi and Louisiana. That's a sure sign of a dynamic, rare, and awfully intense winter storm.

States of emergency have been declared in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina as the storm bears down tomorrow.  

Winter storm and blizzard warnings covered
a huge section of the nation Thursday evening (pini
and red areas) The yellow area is a tornado watch. 

If anything, forecasts of snow accumulation have increased today from North Carolina to New York City.

In some places, like Asheville, North Carolina, parts of Virginia and Maryland, this storm might exceed the levels of the thought-to-be impossible-to-beat Superstorm of March, 1993.

There is even serious talk in some areas of snow thunderstorms with accumulation rates of up to five inches per hour. That is INSANE!

An incredibly enormous area of blizzard warnings, blizzard watches and winter storm warnings extends from Arkansas to Long Island, and from southern Ohio to northern Georgia. That is One. Big. Area.

Nobody should try to drive, or fly to and from the Middle Atlantic States Friday and Saturday. Trains are kaput, too. The Washington DC metro is shutting down. 

Other than that, the forecast hasn't changed much. We're still expecting a terrible ice storm in North Carolina, at least for the areas that won't totally get buried in snow. Coastal flooding is an enormous concern from North Carolina to Long Island.

A measure of the concern comes from Hoboken, New Jersey, where coastal flood barriers were put in place today. That only happens in the most serious storms.

So, hunker down everyone in the storm zone! For most of you, it will be a wild, fun ride, as long as you stay safe. And preferably indoors.

Nasty Northern U.S. Severe Weather Outbreak Continues Today, Tuesday.

Tornado near Ludlow, South Dakota Sunday
from @SeanSchoferTVN via Twitter.  

A vigorous weather disturbance is moving generally west to east across the northern United States, and it's leaving a trail of severe storms and tornadoes with it.

Yesterday, Montana, the Dakotas and Nebraska suffered through it. There were unconfirmed reports of some tornadoes with supercells, but the big story was wind and hail.

Hail bigger than softballs plunged through house roofs in parts of Nebraska, and winds gusted to more than 80 mph in storms in parts of Montana and North Dakota.

These same areas were pummeled by storms Saturday, too.

The round of storms managed to hold much of their punch overnight, and before dawn, severe thunderstorm watches and warnings were up in much of South Dakota. This storm system is so strong that thunderstorms don't seem to weaken as much as they usually do in the predawn hours.

As of 5 a.m. local time Monday, Sioux Falls, South Dakota was reporting a thunderstorm with winds gusting to 62 mph.

The heat of the strong June sun tends to encourage updrafts that create stronger storms, so storms usually reach their peak intensity in the late afternoons and evenings. This trend will continue with the current storm outbreak as it travels east.

However, as I've already said, those in the path of this cold front can expect at least some severe storms in the late night and early morning hours, when severe weather is usually less likely.

This afternoon, it looks like the timing is such that the disturbance will be in Wisconsin, Michigan and northern Illinois. With the heating of the day, intense storms will fire up in these areas again.

All kinds of threats are possible with this batch of storms, including a few tornadoes. Most of the havoc will be caused by hail, very strong winds and local flash flooding from today's storms in the Great Lakes region.

Keep an eye to the skies there.

Overnight, the storms will crash into southern Ontario, and on into New York and Pennsylvania, and maybe into western New England, places like Vermont late at night.

The storms might weaken some with the loss of daytime heating, but overnight severe weather with strong winds and hail remains possible, given the strength of the eastward moving storm system.

It's been so wet in northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. If no more rain falls this month, Burlington, Vermont will still have its sixth wettest June on record, with more than seven inches of rain so far.

Heavy downpours with some of these storms could cause some local flash flooding in the region. That's not a super high possibility, but it's something to watch out for.

Jet stream level winds are also stronger than normal for this time of year, and that will also help encourage severe weather.

Tuesday afternoon, it's the Northeast's turn for severe weather. The biggest threat will depend upon where the best instability and the strongest upper level winds set up during the peak of the sun's heating in the late afternoon and evening.

It also depends upon where and when a subtle line of lower pressure sets up ahead of the cold front by afternoon. It's near this so-called "trough line" where the worst storms will probably fire up

My guess, and the location might shift some, is the highest chance of severe thunderstorm winds, large hail, and even a tornado or two, is interior southern New England, the Hudson Valley of New York, eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

So from the eastern Dakotas this morning on into the Great Lakes today, and on into the Northeast Tuesday, watch the skies and take shelter if storms threaten. Some of these could be really nasty.

They Make Everything Big In Texas. Including Hailstorms

LOTS of hail in western Texas on Monday. It didn't help
travel too much. Photo by Tony Laubach.  

I know. Winter wasn't that long ago, and the thought still makes you shudder, which means you are probably horrified by the photo in this post.

It's not a snowstorm, though. (Though it did manage to snow a couple of inches up in North Dakota during the past weekend.)

No, the photo by Tony Laubach is of a hailstorm near Pecos, in the western part of Texas. It accumulated a foot deep, and as you can see, didn't exactly help travel much.

Texas has been the epicenter of storminess this spring, with frequent floods, hailstorms, tornadoes and supercell thunderstorms.

An El Nino weather pattern seems to be developing, and that seems to favor wet weather and storms in Texas.

Flash flood watches and warnings are up for much of Texas today and perhaps through the rest of the week, as up to eight inches of rain are forecast for the next few days in northern Texas.

Parts of Texas, especially to the west, might get some more severe storms and hail today and tomorrow. 

By the way, some strong storms are forecast in New England, including my home turf in Vermont, could produce some gusty winds and hail today. But nothing like in Texas.

My new hostas might get dinged with a little hail today outside my St. Albans, Vermont home, but I probably won't be shoveling a foot of hail out of my driveway, so that's good.

Here's StormChasingVideo.com's view of the Pesos, Texas hailstorm.

Bad Weather: Here Are Cities You Don't Want To Visit Today

Deadly tornado near Cisco, Texas on Saturday.
More severe weather is on tap today, mostly in
East Texas and the upper Mississippi Valley.  

Bad, damaging and at times scary weather is scattered around the United States and around the world today.

There's the usual springtime severe weather, and there's flooding, and tropical storms, and even a blizzard. The extremes keep coming.

I'll list some cities that in most cases are quite lovely, but ones you don't want to visit this fine Mother's Day. Also, don't take your mom to these places unless you really hate her.

Sioux City, Iowa and Wichita Falls, Texas: These two cities fall roughly into the middle of two broad zones that have the biggest risk of severe thunderstorms, large hail and maybe a few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center received 50 reports of tornadoes yesterday, mostly in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

Unfortunately, at least one death was reported with a tornado in Texas.

This zone of severe weather shifts east today, and forecasters say the areas I outlined above are most likely to be in for it today. This means the upper Mississippi Valley and the Red River Valley between Texas and Oklahoma.

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma: This storm-battered city has already received more than 11 inches of rain this month and more torrential thunderstorms are forecast today. The ground is saturated, there's already been a lot of flooding and the area is bracing for more. Luckily it will dry out in Oklahoma City for a couple days anyway early this coming week.

Rapid City, South Dakota: A late season winter storm is socking parts of Wyoming and the Black Hills of South Dakota with up to 15 inches of snow. This type of thing occasionally  happens in this region in May, but it's still unwelcome.

Winter storm warnings are still up for a wide area in this part of the country, and a blizzard warning of all things continues for areas near Rapid City. You like to torture yourself with spring snow? Head to Rapid City. Otherwise, avoid.

Wilmington, North Carolina: Early season Tropical Storm Ana came ashore early today not far from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. The weakening storm was still spinning near the Carolina coast today, and that region can expect gusty winds, dangerous surf and occasionally heavy rain.

Santa Ana, The Philippines: Super Typhoon Noul was crashing ashore near this northern Philippines city today, packing winds of 160 mph. Authorities fear massive destruction from storm surges, incredible winds, and huge floods.

The Philippines get typhoons pretty frequently, but this one is stronger than most and might cause extreme damage and lots of deaths. Let's hope not

That Well Advertised Severe Weather Outbreak To Ramp Up Today

Tornadoes are possible in Oklahoma, Kansas
and Missouri today, but we hope no big ones
go through neighborhoods, like this one in Moore,
Oklahoma in 2013. Image fro KOCO.  

As has been advertised all week, a pretty good sized severe weather outbreak is going to get going in earnest today and continue tomorrow in the middle of the nation.

Yesterday, there were two reports of a brief tornado in Kansas.

Once again, Kentucky was nailed on Tuesday, as that state seems to be the focus of Mother Nature's wrath this year, as I've previously noted.

More flash flooding hit the state, less than a week after Kentucky flooding killed at least two people and left widespread damage to homes, businesses and roads.

A severe storm with a tornado warning just missed West Liberty, Kentucky, which was totally trashed  by a March, 2012 twister. No tornado has been reported to have touched down in Kentucky yesterday, but there were reports of wind damage and hail.

Today, the severe weather will become much more widespread than yesterday. The areas most at risk this afternoon and evening are Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, most of Missouri and western Illinois.

There's a pretty good chance some tornadoes will spin up in this region, and one or two of the tornadoes could become quite strong, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

I'm betting the inevitable storm chasers were already driving toward the predicted storm region as I wrote this early this morning.

People who don't get tornadoes might end with huge hailstones and damaging thunderstorm winds. The storms will probably head into Indiana and Kentucky (again!) tonight, with the risk of damaging storms there.

Tomorrow, the best chances of severe weather are in Illinois and southern Wisconsin, where there could be a few tornadoes, says the Storm Prediction Center. 

Bad storms could also occur anywhere through the central and southern Great Lakes, in the Ohio Valley and down all the way to northeastern Texas.

Possibly severe storms could reach the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday, and central Texas as well.

All these storms this week are part of a major weather pattern change that typically happens in the spring.

New England is the last to feel the effects of the pattern change warm up,  but it's starting to. Warm air briefly got into New England late last week, but the past few days, the region has been stuck to the north, the cold side, of a weather front.

This setup helped produce the coldest weather New England has ever seen in April, though that was confined to northern Maine. Periodic snows have been a daily occurence in parts of New England since Saturday, and that will continue today and tonight for some parts of the region.

Accumulations will be light. The warmer weather will finally break through into New England by Friday, and pretty much stay around for the next several days after that.

Here's Your (Long) List Of Horrible Blizzard Hazards In The Northeast This Weekend.

Here's one depiction of the vast blizzard nor'easter
expected to slam New England and southeastern
Canada Saturday night and Sunday. Click on the image to
make it bigger and easier to see.  

The next epic blizzard is on track to hit New England Saturday into Sunday and a huge number of weather alerts are posted.

This storm will encompass an area as big as Superstorm Sandy in 2012 which was huge, but will be more to the northeast.

This is an incredibly dangerous storm in terms of winds, snow, extreme cold and wind chill. Anybody caught outside has a good chance of being killed by this in parts of New England.

It's easiest just to list the principal warnings for the storm. I didn't even get into all the warnings in southeastern Canada.

Here's at least some of what the National Weather Servide is warning about, as of Friday evening:

Blizzard warning #1 for eastern Massachusetts, from 7 p.m. Saturday to 11 a.m. Sunday for ten to 14 inches of snow, low temperatures and north winds of 30 to 40 mph, gusting as high as 75 mph near the coast.
 
Snow drifts could reach several feet deep, travel will be nearly impossible, and dangerous low

wind chills and temperatures are likely. Warning includes Boston, Gloucester, Quincy, Plymouth, Provincetown, Nantucket. 

Blizzard warning #2 for coastal New Hampshire and southeastern Maine from noon Saturday to 7 a.m. Monday. Snowfall accumulations of 18 to 24 inches, winds north at 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Near zero visibility and dangerously cold wind chills. 

Blizzard warning #3 covers eastern Maine, including Bangor, Eastport, and Machias, from 10 p.m. Saturday to 7 a.m. Monday. Snow accumulation of 18 to 26 inches, winds north at 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Near zero visibility at times. Drifts several feet tall.

Winter Storm warning #1 covers all areas of Maine and New Hampshire not covered by the blizzard warning, from 4 p.m. Saturday to midnight Sunday. Eight to 12 inches of snow, winds north at 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 50 mph; severe blowing and drifting snow, dangerously cold wind chills.

Winter Storm warning #2 covers central Massachusetts, all of Rhode Island and eastern Connecticut from 3 pm. Saturday to 11 a.m. Sunday. Six to ten inches of snow is expected, with much blowing and drifting snow with winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Winter Storm warning #3 covers western New York from 7 a.m. Saturday to 6 p.m. Sunday for 6 to 12 inches of snow, blowing and drifting snow and very cold wind chill readings.

Winter Storm watch for western Massachusetts Saturday evening into Sunday morning for possible 4 to 8 inches of snow and considerable blowing and drifting snow.

Winter weather advisory #1 is in effect from 1 p.m. Saturday to 10 a.m. Sunday for the Connecticut River Valley of Vermont. Snow accumulations of three to six inches are possible. Lots of blowing snow is likely, too.

Winter weather advisory for the New York City metro area, lower Hudson Valley, most of New Jersey Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Three to seven inches of snow possible; winds gusting to 50 mph, severe blowing and drifting snow and very low wind chills likely.

A wind chill watch is in effect for all of Vermont and northern New York from late Saturday night through Monday morning. Chill will be between 15 and 25 below Saturday night, 20 to 30 below Sunday and 30 to 40 below Sunday night. Exposed skin can freeze in less than 15 minutes.

Coastal flood warning for much of the Massachusetts coast, especially Salisbury, Cape Ann and Plum Island. Areas damaged by the January blizzard are also especially vulnerable. Moderate flooding is possible.

High wind watch #1 for the New York City metro area, New Jersey, Long Island, Connecticut, parts of Pennsylvania. Wind gusts of 60 mph possible on Sunday.

High wind watch #2 for Maryland, northern and western Virginia, Delaware, Washington DC on Sunday. Wind gusts of up to 60 mph possible.

In addition, winter storm warnings and advisories are up for Michigan, with a blizzard warning up for parts of the Upper Pennisula of Michigan.

Besides New England, wind chill watches, warning and advisories are up for much of the Great Lakes and upper Midwest.

Hard freeze warnings are up for parts of southeastern Georgia and northern Florida.

Big Severe Weather Outbreak In Nation's South, Central Areas Today

Severe storm in Oklahoma last night as
the current severe weather outbreak got underway.  

UPDATE; Those tornadic supercells and storms I worried would form ahead of the main band of storms with the current severe outbreak appeared to be forming as of noon.

Tornado warnings were beginning to sprout in storms east of teh squall line in eastern Arkansas and western Mississippi.

The threat of tornadoes will grow over the next couple of hours.

Already, we have at least one tornado death to report, unfortunately, in Ashdown, Arkansas.

We hope things don't get any deadlier.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Early Monday morning, there was a tornado watch covering most of Arkansas, northern Louisiana and part of East Texas.

That's pretty unusual since most tornadoes come in the afternoon and evening. Plus, October isn't really prime season for tornadoes.

Spring is the big tornado season.

But every once in awhile, you get a really dynamic, energetic storm system in the autumn, and you get a widespread severe weather outbreak. That's what's happening today.

This spell of dangerous weather actually started yesterday and especially last evening. There were more than 80 reports of damaging winds and big hail, mostly in Texas and Oklahoma, but extending as far east as Tennessee and Alabama. Winds gusted into the 75 to 80 mph range in a few Southern Plains towns.

Today, things will get worse. 

There was a wicked squall line with severe storms in western Arkansas and northeastern Texas early Monday morning. That will move east today, bringing a threat of widespread strong winds and damage all the way into Tennessee.  If anything, the storms along the squall line will get stronger as the day goes on.

Straight line winds are the main threat today, but that's as big a threat as tornadoes, as we saw with a microburst in Massachusetts last week.

Still, some of the storms in the squall line will start to spin, creating the risk of tornadoes. And a few supercell storms might get going ahead of the squall line, and those could create a couple strong, long lasting tornadoes.

So the southern Mississippi Valley is kind of screwed today. People living there ought to look to the skies, and take any storms they see coming seriously. It'll also be a good idea to keep a weather radio or other media handy so you can hear warnings right away.

The severe weather will continue on into the southeastern United States for Tuesday. As dangerous as the weather will be there, the strong winds and tornadoes won't be quite as widespread as today.

In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rains are likely in a lot of the storms in and around Tennesee, so flash flooding is going to be a problem in some spots.

The storm system causing all the rough weather will only trudge slowly toward the northeast, so wet weather won't hit the East Coast until the Wednesday through Friday time frame.  There could be areas of heavy rain when this hits the East, but there will only be a few severe storms, I think.

As I noted, big tornado and severe weather outbreaks aren't that common in the fall, but they do happen. Just last November, a flurry of severe tornadoes caused widespread destruction in the Midwest.

In that outbreak 73 tornadoes caused 11 deaths across the Midwest.

Here's a video of the storms as they developed in Kansas last night. Looks like quite a bit of hail:

Incredible Images: Storm In Turkey, Drops Tornadoes, Slams Beaches

A storm surge slams into a fire station
along the Black Sea coast of Turkey in late September.  

Severe storms, tornadoes, storm surges and other havoc slammed much of the country of Turkey in the last week or so of September.

Damage, as you might imagine, was widespread. People also caught a lot of the storminess on camera.

Here, scaffolding collapses in the wind in the middle of Istanbul:



Here, American servicemen capture on video what might have been a tornado:




Most dramatically of all, a storm surge blasted in from the Black Sea, abruptly filling buildings with water and sweeping cars away. This is wild:

Colorado Storms Drop A TON Of Hail, Again. With Video

A car stuck in the hail around Denver Monday. Photo
by Steve Nehf, Denver Post.  

Huge hail storms hit in the Denver, Colorado metro area Monday, showing what I've been calling the year of big hail is continuing on into the autumn.   

The hail was as much as four inches deep in the town of Centennial. And this is the third time this month that an epic hail storm, enough to totally cover the ground, has hit the town of Aurora, Colorado.

Today, the severe threat shifts into eastern South Dakota and eastern Nebraska. Again, hail and strong straight line winds are the primary threat there, but there could be a tornado or two.

More severe weather is possible in the Central Plains Wednesday, and in the mid-Mississippi Valley Thursday.

At least the hail threat in Colorado is smaller today. Three videos of the storms below,

Here's what it looked like in Aurora, Colorado on Monday:



Another view of chaos in an Aurora yard:

 

Here's the scene in Centennial, Colorado

Bumpy, Booming Labor Day Weekend Weather

Severe storms and floods are
possible in parts of the nation
for the rest of the holiday weekend.  

Around 4 a.m. this morning a bright flash and the CR-R_RACKKK BOOOMM!!!!! of a close lightning strike woke me up at my St. Albans, Vermont house.  

That was the signal that for many parts of the nation, the rest of the Labor Day weekend will be stormy in many parts of the country. Especially today.

Two areas are being watched the most closely. The Storm Prediction Center says the most likely target for big storms runs from central Kansas up through Nebraska, Iowa and on into Minnesota.

There is some threat of a few tornadoes, especially in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, but the biggest danger is from huge hailstones and damaging winds in this region.

The Storm Prediction Center has a lesser, but still real chance of severe storms from southwestern New England into the Mid-Atlantic states.

On Monday, the threat of severe storms will shift into Missouri, Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Again, big hail and strong winds are the main threat.

Even in areas that won't get classic severe storms, there is the threat of torrential, even flooding rains today. Where I live in Vermont, the storms are unlikely to be severe, but some storms will produce an inch or two of rain in a very short period of time.

Luckily, it's been a bit on the dry side lately, so around here, there won't be much flooding, except for those streets in urban centers such as Burlington, Rutland and St. Albans that sometimes flood in those towns get bullseyed by a particularly hard storm.

Elsewhere, flash flood watches are for parts of Kentucky and Tennesee. They've had quite a bit of rain there, and heavy downpours are likely today.

Southwestern Louisiana is also under a flood watch.

On the bright side, hurricanes often threaten the U.S. East Coast this time of year. There's none of that this year. There is no chance of a tropical storm or hurricane hitting anywhere in the United States over the next few days.

In almost all the areas that I've said are threatened by storms or flooding, the whole day won't be a washout. There will be dry periods to enjoy the late summer outdoors. Just be ready to move inside at the drop of a hat, and the first drops of a downpour.

The Nation's Spring Of Hail Storms Continues Its Destructive Path

Hailstorm approaches Norfolk, Neb. Tuesday.  

There was another huge severe weather outbreak in the Plains and Midwest yesterday and last night, and once again tornadoes weren't really the big story. It was the hail.

According to the National Severe Storms Center preliminary count of severe weather reports from Tuesday, there were 13 reports of tornadoes, 214 reports of wind damage and 251 reports of hail damage.

Most of this was concentrated in and near Nebraska.

Photographer Krista Kiese captured this storm
in Nebraska, Photo came via Twitter.  

This might have been the worst of epic hail outbreaks the nation has seen this year.

At one large car dealership in Nebraska alone, as many as 4,500 cars worth $152 million were damaged or destroyed by tennis and baseball sized hail driven by winds of 70 mph.  

When you get hail the size of tennis or baseballs and 80 mph winds propel them, houses get pretty much shredded. Roofs, windows, siding all get destroyed. You practically have to totally rebuild.

From @BTsullivan on Twitter, this Nebraska home
was shredded by huge hail propelled by hurricane force winds.  

The skies were interesting, too. When you get a supercell thunderstorm loaded with lots and lots of hail, the chunks of ice color the menacing storm clouds in shades of green and blue.

So right before people saw their houses and cars trashed by the hail, they were treated to some scary but beautiful skies.

Things will be calmer across the nation the rest of the week, though there's still the threat of severe thunderstorms, including damaging, large hail, for the next three days, especially around the middle of the country.





Here's a video of huge hail and strong winds blasting Norfolk, Nebraska.




The end of this next, dramatic video demonstrates why you should stay away from windows when the hail gets to be tennis ball sized, and propelled by high winds:

Severe T-Storms Chase Me To South Dakota So I Don't Have To Chase Them

I arrived in South Dakota Saturday evening for a week long visit with family.

Visibility near zero in heavy rain, hail and 60+ mph
winds during a severe storm Sunday in Yankton, S.D.  

Yes, it's the pretty much the peak of severe weather season in South Dakota, but storm chasing is not on the agenda.

I don't think my in-laws would like me to go out into the middle of nowhere to have their vehicles wrecked by hail and flying debris.

Plus, I'm not an experienced storm chaser, so anything super huge, Great Plains style is out of my league. I don't want to get hurt or endanger others through my storm chasing stupidity.

Ominous clouds over Yankton, S.D. between two
severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.  

So, I'm up for a peaceful week in the pleasant small southeastern South Dakota city of Yankton.

My husband and I arrived in Sioux Falls Saturday evening, and his sister picked us up for the drive south to Yankton. Near Vermillion, we encountered, YES! a nice thunderstorm.

It definitely wasn't severe, but it had some dramatic dark clouds.

Just ahead of the main storm, a huge hail shaft and apparent weak microburst or downdraft created a dramatic heavy bluish black column, decorated with a rainbow from the setting sun.

Then, during a late lunch Sundy at my in-laws' house next to a golf course, I noticed it getting pretty dark out.  I knew some strong thunderstorms had been developing just to the south, across the Missouri River in Nebraska, and they were starting to head norht.

I saw a couple in a golf cart frantically driving at top speed in the gathering gloom toward the club house, and since I knew there might be drama coming, I grabbed my camera and went into the sunroom, which is surrounded on three sides by glass.

There's a house less than 50 feet away in this still
from a video I took, but the rain, hail and wind made it
impossible to see it.  

The result was a great view of not one, but two severe thunderstorms that swept through Yankton.

The wind officially gusted to 68 mph at the Yankton airport.

In the nearby town of Mayfield, a metal building was swept into the intersection of South Dakota Route 46 and U.S. 81.

When the storm traveled up toward Sioux Falls, meteorologists there spotted a funnel cloud nearby.

Thank you Yankton and South Dakota for bringing the storms to me. There's actually another shot of strong storms possible later Tuesday.

Here's a video of the storms I took from the Modereger family sunroom in Yankton, South Dakota.  During the more dramatic moments, I heard myself saying, "I'm not in Vermont anymore."

Watch:

That Mega Storm Off The East Coast Is Behaving As Expected, Which Is Incredible

The forecasts for that humongous storm off the coast of New England are turning out to be totally accurate.  

The enormous mega-bomb of a storm
swirls off the New England coast as
dawn breaks Wednesday morning.  

That's actually a little surprising, because this storm is almost unprecedented in its strength.  If there's not much experience with a certain kind of weather pattern, the chances can increase the forecast is wrong.

If meteorologists have not really dealt with a particular type of weather event in the past, they haven't had the chance to learn from experience.

Then again, computer models are getting a lot better and meteorologists have gotten more sophisticated in using them.

So some mega storms have turned out to be very accurately forecasted, which of course can save lives and property.

For instance, forecasts for Hurricane Sandy in October, 2012 were almost dead on.  True, the destruction in New Jersey and elsewhere was extreme, and some people didn't heed evacuation notices, and people died. In that storm, 117 people in the United States died.

Another visible satellite view of the storm
The center of the storm looks like it
has an "eye" like a hurricane. Though the storm is as
strong as a hurricane, it's a completely different type of
storm from a hurricane.  

However, imagine how many people would have died had they not been warned Sandy was coming.

The great news is I'm not expecting nearly the destruction of Hurricane Sandy with the current huge storm, mostly because it's not hitting as many populated areas.

There is going to be coastal flooding and battering waves on Cape Cod and the islands, plus heavy snow.  

As of 8 a.m. winds were gusting to 69 mph in Nantucket, amid heavy snow and near zero visibility, for instance.  Winds there could gust to hurricane force before this is over.

There's also going to be a lot of damage up toward Nova Scotia, which is bracing for hurricane force winds and tidal surges.

Heavy snow is going to be confined to the New England Coast, and Atlantic Canada.

Luckily, the storm won't stick around long and will be gone by Thursday. Then, those of us in the Northeast will face more typical sized, and some rather unpredictable storminess over the weekend.

More on that later.....

Though Deadly, Severe Thunderstorms Are Amazingly BeautifulBeautiful Storm...

Severe thunderstorms are forecast today and tomorrow from the Midwest to the East Coast.

Gorgeous storm photography by Nicolaus Wegner.
Time to buy up some of us work, everyone!  

These won't be those classic isolated, but huge supercell thunderstorms you get on the Great Plains in the spring or summer, but instead they will be along a gusty squall line.

Damaging wind gusts are the main threat from this outbreak, but there might be a couple of tornadoes.

This week's storms won't be beautiful, per se, but some severe thunderstorms are, especially when viewed on a wide open prarie.

Watch this video by Nicolaus Wegner as gorgeous proof.

One More Day Of Rough Weather In Vermont Today

1 p.m. UPDATE:

Another round of severe thunderstorms is just getting going now in central New York, far southern Vermont, the southern half of New Hampshire and points south.

My guess is areas south of a Saratoga, N.Y.--Rutland, Vermont, and Littleton, N.H. line are most likely to be at risk for strong winds, large hail, and even a brief isolated tornado this afternoon.

Already, as of 1 p.m. strong storms have fired up in central New York, along the Massachusetts/Vermont border and in the southern half of New Hampshire. Those storms will continue to increase in size and intensity this afternoon. I'm sure a variety of watches and warnings will go up soon in those areas.

Points to the north of my risk line will continue to get rain. It will probably intensify in many locations, and thunderstorms could mix in. There is a chance some of the more northerly thunderstorms could get to borderline severe proportions, but I don't anticipate anything widespread in that regard.

However, in the northern half of Vermont, and in northern New York and New Hampshire, the rain could come down hard at times, and certain areas could get repeatedly bullseyed with downpours.

Within 25 miles of the Canadian border in Vermont, about two inches of rain fell last evening. If the heavy rain makes it that far north today, that region is probably more under the gun for possible flash flooding than anywhere else.

Radar trends now suggest far northwestern Vermont and the tip of New York could escape the heaviest rains, but that's by no means guaranteed.

Still, any thunderstorm anywhere in New England and New York could bring enough blinding rain to cause local flash floods. So stay tuned for possible alerts and warnings throughout the afternoon and evening.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

Yesterday's storms played out about as expected. Some areas really got hammered by damaging storms, while others got away with almost nothing.

Trees and wires were down across a road in
Bristol, Vermont Wednesday after
a severe thunderstorm rolled through. 

Almost everybody in northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire did get a great light show last night from lightning that sometimes seemed to fill the sky.

At first glance from damage reports, it seems the most destructive storms in Vermont yesterday were in the Northeast Kingdom, near and northeast of Lake Willoughby, in eastern Vermont near Bradford, and finally, in the evening, southern Rutland County and much of Windsor County.

We're not out of the woods. As you can tell, it's still very humid, meaning the cold front hasn't gone through. Until it does, we are at risk of strong storms and heavy rain.

Today, since the front is approaching, I think places east of the Green Mountains and south of about Rutland and White River Junction in Vermont are most at risk of severe thunderstorms today.

In those places, the sun will stay out longer, contributing to the instability needed to create strong storms. However, I wouldn't rule out damaging winds or hail in western Vermont or eastern New York, either, but it's less likely.

It was already raining in northwestern Vermont and northern New York. Clouds will hang tough there, and that will help prevent storms from really firing up.

Forecasters are still worried about the "training" thunderstorms we could get today, the situation where a series of torrential downpours goes over the same area, much like box cars on a moving freight train.

Training storms could set off some local flash floods today just about anywhere in eastern New York and New England

Some areas of Vermont, especially near the Canadian border and in some ares in the central parts of the state, got close to two inches of rain in yesterday's storms, which saturated the ground. Those areas might be a little more at risk for flooding.

As I've advertised all week, it's back to autumn tomorrow. Expect highs in the low 60s, which is chillier than the low temperature for the past couple of days. Go figure.

Big, Severe Thunderstorms Likely In Parts Of Vermont This Afternoon, Evening

2:30 p.m. WEDNESDAY UPDATE

I'm more and more confident some severe thunderstorms will erupt this afternoon and evening in Vermont and surrounding states.

A severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued for all of Vermont and much of the rest of northern New England until 10 p.m. tonight.

Atmospheric conditions are such that it needs to get up to between 85 and 90 degrees this afternoon in Vermont and northern New York for updrafts to break through a layer of stable, warm air high above us.  Shortly after that happens the thunderstorms will begin in earnest

As of 2 p.m., it was 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont and 93 in Plattsburgh, N.Y., so we're there.

From my perch in St. Albans, Vermont, I'm noticing thunderheads beginning to pile up in the distance, especially to my north and west.

The towering clouds are not rising straight up. They're tilted quite a bit toward the northeast. That, to me, indicates there are strong winds high above us, which will help severe thunderstorms develop. And some of those high winds will be brought down to the surface in the turbulence inside any thunderstorms that do form.

As I said this morning, not all of Vermont and surrounding states will get a severe thunderstorm this afternoon. It'll be hit and miss, with some towns getting blasted and others remaining relatively unscathed. It's hard to tell which town will get hit until the the thunderstorms form and we know which areas they're targeting.

A special weather statement just issued by the National Weather Service in Burlington says the most likely time for the strongest storms is between 5 p.m. today and midnight. I have no reason to dispute that assessment. It'll take a little time for the storms to get going.

Interestingly, there is still a slight chance of a brief, relatively weak tornado with this outbreak in northern New England. We associate tornadoes with flat, open areas, but the National Severe Storms Center says if any tornadoes do form, it is most likely in Vermont's hilly Northeast Kingdom and in the mountains of northern New Hampshire and western Maine.

Still, the threat of a twister is very low. Just a slight chance.

Stay tuned and keep an eye to the skies.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS MORNING  

Contrary to predictions, no severe thunderstorms developed Tuesday in Vermont and surrounding states.

The forecasted big storms Tuesday didn't materialize.
There's still a risk of nasty storms today, like this
one in St. Albans back in July.  

As far as I can tell, at least two things gave us the breather:

A slow moving warm front didn't quite make it all the way through New York and New England until last night. That meant there was a layer of warm air over the top of cold air, and that prevents the big towering clouds of thunderstorms from forming.

An even bigger factor was the overcast. Sunshine heats the air right near the ground. The warm air, lighter than cooler air, rises. The rising air initiates the process in which thunderheads start to bubble upward. No sun Tuesday, so no rising air currents to speak of.

Today, Wednesday, is a different story. The warm front has passed, as anyone stepping outside can tell you. It's incredibly humid, even by mid-July standards, never mind September. The temperature is likely to hit 90 degrees in many spots in northern New England today.

Big thunderstorms thrive on heat and humidity, so there you go.

The sun is out, so we'll have those rising air currents. There's fast winds high above us, and the atmosphere is primed to host huge thunderstorms.

So there is the chance of severe thunderstorms today across the northern half of New York and the northern half of New England.

It seems like the closer you are to the Canadian border, the more likely a big storm will hit you. That's because there's a weather front in Quebec, and that could act as a trigger for storms that would then lumber across the border (Ignoring U.S. Border Patrol and Homeland Security in the process) and cause some problems in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

It was still unclear early Wednesday morning if there will be enough of a trigger to produce a lot of severe storms. Will the updrafts from the sunshine help cause storms? Is the front in Canada strong enough? Are there other hard-to-discern wind shifts that could get a storm going?

We think so, but it's not a sure bet.  My sense is there will be storms scattered around today. It'll be the typical hit and miss type of set up. A few towns get blasted by wind and hail and lightning, other towns go through the day without even a faint rumble of thunder.

So look to the skies. Some of us could easily get a storm with damaging winds and big time hail. My guess it won't start until 2 p.m. at the earliest, with the prime time for possible storms in the late afternoon and evening.

The National Severe Storms Center also has us in a risk for severe storms Thursday as a cold front comes and interacts with the humid air.

"Training thunderstorms", a line of storms going over
the same spot one after another, dumped enough rain
to wash out this Cambridge, Vermont road in May.  

There may well be some severe weather in the Northeast. But National Weather Service forecasters in Burlington are more worried about the rain Thursday's thunderstorms might bring.

Tomorrow's weather pattern favors "training thunderstorms" That's the dreaded situation where thunderstorms line up like box cars on a train track. Then the box cars, in this case thunderstorms, go over the same spot, one after another.

One thunderstorm with a downpour isn't a big deal. A whole bunch of downpours going over the same town, one after another like those box cars, can drop tremendous amounts of rain, and it becomes a really big deal. The situation can dump many inches of rain on a particular town,  causing a flash flood in the places unlucky enough to be hit by this type of "train"

You never can tell a day in advance where these trains will set up, if they do at all. So you'll need to pay attention to forecasts and possible flood alerts on Thursday.

After that, as promised, we return to our previously scheduled autumn in Vermont and surrounding states. It looks as if we'll get several days of somewhat chilly, largely sunny weather starting Saturday.