Major Storm To Cause Havoc In Much Of Nation Now Through Monday

Schematic from the National Weather Service of
what the large storm will look like on
waeather maps on Sunday. 

A real humdinger of a storm is widely expected to cross the nation starting now and ending in the Northeast Monday, causing practically every imaginable weather hazard.

It will become an intense storm by the time it reaches the middle of the country.

It is the first storm of the season that will have at least some characteristics of a spring season storm. But ironically, it will introduce what will probably be the last truly serious and rather long lasting winter cold outbreaks.

This storm will certainly have some impacts to pay attention to here in Vermont, but at least those effects won't be as serious as those in some other parts of that nation. I'll get into that a little further down in this post.  

ALREADY STARTING

The storm is just starting to get its act together in the Southwest and it's already making an impact. It snowed in Las Vegas overnight, the second time this week that's happened. Snow is not unheard of in Sin City, but it is relatively rare.

Last night in Las Vegas

The official half inch of snow that fell in the past 24 hours is the first measurable snow there in a little over ten years.

Parts of the Las Vegas metro area that sit a little higher in elevation got up to six inches of accumulation. As of this morning, it was still snowing around that region.

Northern Arizona, where snow is more common than in Las Vegas, is getting blasted. Much of that region, including the city of Flagstaff, can expected around two feet of snow. It was really coming down in Flagstaff this morning, so that forecast seems accurate.

The mountains of northern Arizona could end up with at least three feet of new powder out of this.

The storm will spread a swath of pretty heavy snow, with areas of strong winds and blowing snow into the central and northern Plains, and western Great Lakes over the next few days. Some of these areas have already seen record amounts of snow this February, and this will just add to the total.

FLOODING

Flooding is going to be a big time concern over a good chunk of the Southeast and in the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. Actually, the flooding is nasty in this region even before the weekend storm arrives.

Storms all week have dumped several inches of rain on most of this area, and flooding is ongoing. Another three to five inches of rain is expected today through Saturday in the hardest hit areas of Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and surrounding areas, so this will only make a bad situation worse. You'll continue to see the flooding on your news feeds for the rest of the week, I'm sure.

SEVERE WEATHER

Areas in yellow and especially orange can expect severe thunderstorms
and perhaps tornadoes on Saturday.

Warm, humid air has been streaming into the Southeast for the past few days. As this big storm enters the middle of the nation, it will only increase this wet, hot flow.

The approach of the storm's cold front, and the veering winds aloft associated with the storm are a good recipe for a burst of severe weather, which could include a number of tornadoes.

As The Weather Channel notes, the last day the nation had at least 100 reports of severe weather - bad, windy thunderstorms, tornadoes and big hail, was on November 30. Saturday seems destined to break that slow trend.

Widespread severe weather outbreaks are relatively rare in the winter, but they do happen. Once you start getting into late February, as in now, the chances of severe weather and tornadoes begins to ramp up, especially in the Gulf Coast states

So this potentially destructive initial sign of spring is right on schedule. The difference this time is the severe weather looks to cover more real estate than a typical February thunderstorm and tornado outbreak.

The severe storms and tornado risk will encompass the northern Gulf Coast states and the Tennessee and lower Ohio River valleys, which is a bit far north for a tornado outbreak this time of year. Note that the greatest risk for tornadoes is in the same spot as the highest flood risk. It's going to be a long three days or so in the Mid-South.

HIGH WINDS

Outside the severe weather zone, damaging wind will still be a problem. By the time the storm reaches the Great Lakes Sunday, it will be very powerful, and very large. This means high winds are likely from the northern Plains to New England to parts of the Southeast.

While I seriously doubt anyone will have the highest winds ever,  the large area included in the windy zone means power outages will be felt in at least a quarter of the nation. If you have stock in electrical line repair crew companies, you're in luck.

At this point, western New York looks like it might receive the worst of the wind. The National Weather Service in Buffalo is already saying that if things turn out the way they think they will on Sunday, there will be at least 12 hours of wind gusts in the 60 t0 70 mph range, which would of course cause a lot of damage.

PATTERN CHANGE

Often, when there's a particularly intense storm like the one forecast this weekend, it helps trigger an overall weather pattern change.  This looks to be the case here.

Weather outlook into early March looks cold, as all the blue
in this eight to fourteen day outlook indicates

Cold air has been bottled up all month in the western half of the nation, but it's beginning to look like this frigid air will expand.

In the closing days of February and especially the first few days of March, it's beginning to look like frigid air will envelop the northern half of the nation from Montana to New England. 

HERE IN VERMONT

As I mentioned above, this storm will certainly affect us here in Vermont. Of course, the forecast could change, but here's what it looks like at the moment:

After lingering light mixed precipitation today, it'll be dry and relatively mild Friday and Saturday. Then the action starts. Since this powerful storm is moving by to our west, we'll have a rinse and repeat of the recent pattern.

Saturday night, a little snow will come down, then transition to sleet and freezing rain, then rain by Sunday morning. It'll turn mild on Sunday as some rain continues.

There might be a few issues with ice jams in the rivers shifting around, so there could be some localized flooding. But the rain won't be heavy enough, the warmth won't be strong enough or long-lasting enough to create widespread high water. So that's good.

As the storm's cold front passes Sunday night, it will get colder with snow showers that will continue into Monday.

The big story looks like it will be the wind. It'll start with strong southerly winds, especially in the Champlain Valley and in the higher terrain late Saturday night and Sunday.

Sunday night and Monday, it will be windy from the west and northwest regionwide. It's a little soon to know precisely how windy it will get, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's gusty enough to bring down at least a few branches and power lines.

It's looking like it will get colder and colder after the storm. March seems like it wants to come in like the proverbial lion, with possibly subzero cold, bouts of gusty winds and wind chills, and maybe some periods of snow.