Tuesday Evening Vermont Winter Storm Update: So Far As Predicted, But....

Around 4 p.m. today, St. Albans, Vermont. No snow yet....

As widely expected by all the meteorologists around here, snow has spread across most of Vermont from southwest to northeast today.  As it moved in, the snow would go from flurries to a steady, relatively thick snow very quickly.

As of 4 p.m., it wasn't snowing yet in the northeast corner of Vermont, but that will change soon.

The overall forecast hasn't changed much, but of course we won't know exactly the extent of the expected sleet, and perhaps freezing rain until it's over. So just expect a mess anywhere in Vermont and surrouding areas now through Wednesday morning.

This evening's commute is not good. Maybe not as bad as the freezing rain nightmare last Wednesday, but bad enough. The visibility is low, roads have gotten snow covered very quickly, and highway crews won't be able to keep things clear as the snow continues to fall at a good clip.

Forecast amounts haven't changed much, with the northwest corner getting eight to 12 inches by midday Wednesday.  There might be locally higher amounts.  Central Vermont away from the western slopes of the Green Mountains should get a good six to 10 inches, even as a little sleet likely mixes in.

Southern Vermont is getting a good thump of snow before things go over to sleet later this evening.  I'l still go with the expectation that the sleet will make it as far north as Route 2 overnight, but it could go further, or it might not get that far north. It's really impossible to tell for sure. Just know the further south you go, the more sleet and possibly freezing rain you'll run into.

As mentioned this morning, strong east to southeasterly winds will go up and over the Green Mountains, causing the risk of strong wind gusts to 50 mph or more overnight. That, of course creates problems with blowing snow, and then ice on trees if there's too much freezing rain.

And, as noted those areas on the western slopes will see less snow and sleet than everybody else around here. For instance, current forecasts say there would be as little as four or five inches of new snow and sleet around Rutland, compared to a nice eight or nine inch dump on top of and just east of the Green Mountain spine nearby.

....15 minuts later, it's coming right down. There could be a foot
of new snow in this northwestern Vermont scene
by Wednesday morning. 

The extent of the sleet depends upon how much the main storm system heading into the eastern Great Lakes can shove a tongue of warm air aloft over us.

If all goes according to plan with the forecasts, (operative word being "if" ), any mix will go over to snow again early Wednesday morning as a coastal low takes over, as meteorologists expect.

Also, an area of drier air aloft could sneak into southern and central Vermont for a time overnight before moisture returns. That would set off a period of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle, which of course is depressing.

It's still expected to be fairly mild Wednesday - between 30 and 35 degrees - so snow cleanup won't be too uncomfortable. A relatively gusty wind from the west will probably get going, so it will feel a bit chillier than it will actually be.

There will be occasional light snow lingering all day. Roads will be very tricky for the morning commute, and so-so in the evening, is my thought.

Overall this is a storm to certainly take seriously, but we've seen worse. We've had much deeper accumulations and much more ice in past storms. Just take it easy on the roads, don't travel if you don't have to, and don't kill yourself shoveling snow too quickly. Mellow out, my friends.

A sneak peek at the next storm Friday and Saturday reveals a trend toward not as much rain as first thought earlier in the week. Precipitation will be not that heavy with the weekend storm. Current forecasts have some rain and snow, but the exact outome is pretty vague at the moment.