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| I'm faced with another opportunity to dig the vehicles out of the driveway as the snow continues to fall this morning in St. Albans, Vermont. |
Amazingly, given the complexity of forecasting this thing, the storm behaved pretty close to what was expected. Sleet and some freezing rain worked its way as far north as somewhere between Route 4 and Route 2.
The thought was the sleet would make it to around Route 2. Given the forecast challenges, that is pretty close to what was expected.
It was still snowing in most of Vermont as of 8:30 a.m., so snow totals are not final. But it looks like the National Weather Service in South Burlington and most local meteorologists got it right.
For instance, as of 8 a.m, my property in St. Albans, Vermont had gotten 7.6 inches of snow. (Somebody else in town measured 8.2 inches). This was measured right before a heavier band of snow started to move through. So the local forecast of eight to 12 inches for northwestern Vermont will verify.
Elsewhere, the most snow as of 7:30 p.m. in Vermont were 9.5 in Alburgh, a town that was expected to be a hot spot for deeper accumulation. Moretown reported 10 inches. Accumulations in southern Vermont were four to eight inches, suppressed somewhat by the mixture with sleet.
Further north, it was an even bigger storm. Montreal reported close to 16 inches of new snow.
A final, decent band of snow was crossing much of Vermont this morning. It'll pretty much make it through and taper off by midday. (It was coming down hard in St. Albans at 9 a.m.) Until at least noon, expect snow covered, slippery roads and slow going. As most of you already know, a lot of schools are closed and delayed.
If possible, you should delay driving until this afternoon, when conditions improve. By then, we'll have just light snow and flurries. Temperatures will rise to near or just above freezing in the warmer valleys, and near 30 elsewhere. That's more than warm enough for road salt to work, and the plows will surely be out all day too.
The strong winds developed as expected along the western slopes of the Green Moutains, too. Winds gusted to 64 mph in Mendon and 60 mph in Danby. In the mountains, gusts reached 76 mph atop Mount Mansfield and 91mph atop Whiteface Mountain, New York.
The National Weather Service/South Burlington raised a good point in their forecast discussion this morning. Back country winter sports enthusiasts should really be careful for the next few days.
The snow and sleet that fell can easily slide on steep slopes. Especially since it fell on old, crusty snow. This new snow and sleet won't "bond" to the pre-existing snowcover, so it can easily turn into an avalanche. Strong mountain winds also produced a lot of snow loading in chutes and ravines, which also increases the risk of avalanches.
This risk extends through the Green, White and Adirondack mountains. The NWS has issued a special weather statement to alert people to this problem.
After today, the next storm is coming along Friday. It won't be as big as forecasters thought earlier this week, but it will be a warm one.
Expect snow and rain showers on Friday as temperatures rise well into the 30s to near 40 in the warmer valleys. A couple inches of additional snow will probably accumulate in the mountains. Unfortunately, the snow will turn crusty again in the valleys as temperatures fall Saturday, and we will once again have a lot of ice underfoot, as we have most of this changeable winter.
After this weekend, it's hard to tease out what kind of storminess wil happen around here. The weather pattern is fast and active and complex, so it's nearly impossible to gauge the development, timing, path and strength of any storm more than a few days away.
Burlington, Vermont is now just about up to its normal amount of snow for an entire winter - around 80 inches. But that surely means the snow won't shut off. There will be more after this week. It's just hard to tell when and how much.
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