Vermont's Winter Storm Warning Continues, But As Usual, Some Forecast Adjustments

An updated storm forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, Vermont. Generally speaking, central and
northern Vermont could still see eight to 12 inches of snow.
There will likely be less along the western slopes of the Greens.
If forecasts later today indicate more warming aloft, snowfall
totals might be cut back because more sleet would mix in. We'll see.

Vermont and most of the rest of the Northeast is still definitely on track for a messy winter storm Tuesday into Wednesday.

I'll focus on Vermont in this update, with some info on other areas of the Northeast further down.

As expected while we head toward this storm, there are some changes to the forecast. This involves mixed precipitation, and some interesting things along the west slopes of the Green Mountains.

As mentioned yesterday, this winter event consists of one storm heading through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes and then starting to fade. Another storm will form along the New Jersey coast and head into New England.

There will be plenty of moisture, so in most of the region, whatever comes from the sky will come down pretty hard. There will still be quite a bit of snow involved, but unfortunately, it's beginning to look like sleet and even some freezing rain might become more of a factor than first thought.

In their forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington notes the upper level part of the storm going by to our west looks like it would hold together fairly well, and for a somewhat longer period of time than earlier forecasts.

That would allow more warm air to sneak in over Vermont aloft. It now looks like sleet will work its way north into at least central Vermont. If forecast trends continue,  at least a little sleeet would make it all the way to the Canadian border.

The mixed precipitation will be more of a factor the further south you go into Vermont. Everybody in the Green Mountain State will get a good thump of snow at the onset of the storm. Then chances of sleet or even freezing rain start to ramp up overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

I give it at least a 50/50 chance of some sleet, if not more, from Route 2 south. Sleet and possibly freezing rain is a given from Route 4 south. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has a very slight chance of freezing rain all the way to the Canadian border in Vermont, and a greater than 50 percent chance of freezing rain along the Massachusetts border.

Wind flow with this storm is going to be strong from the southeast.  The wind will go up the east slopes of the Green and White mountains and then downhill on the west slopes. That means south and east facing slopes of the Green Mountains will have the heaviest precipitation. Eastern slopes of the southern Greens could easily see a good 10 to 12 inches of snow and sleet with this storm.

Downhill flowing air tends to dry out, so precipitation will be lighter along the west slopes of the Green Mountains, and in parts of the Northeast Kingdom in the "shadow" of New Hampshire's Whtie Mountains.

While official forecasts still call for eight to 12 inches of snow and maybe sleet accumulation in most of central and northern Vermont, accumulations could easily be cut back to five or six inches in a narrow band along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

This would include Rutland, Middlebury, the eastern suburbs of Burlington, and rural towns in eastern Franklin County. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom, including St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville, would also have the snow totals cut back.

Along those western slopes, the winds could get quite strong as the head downhill. A wind advisory for gusts of 50 mph is up for this area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The strongest winds would come through between 8 p.m. Tuesday and 3 a.m. Wednesday.

I wouldn't be surprised if some spots go well over 50 mph, with isolated gusts of 60 mph or more. So that spells trouble with a few trees and power lines.

That eight to 12 inch forecast in the northern half of Vermont might be cut back a bit if later forecasts indicate more sleet than current expectations. Expect a lousy commute Tuesday evening. Wednesday morning probably won't be a picnic, either.

The snow will taper off and become much lighter Wednesday. Some of the warmest valleys could see a few rain drops mix in, as temperatures go into the low and mid 30s. Snow showers will linger into Wednesday night with light accumulations.

Further south, this storm looks like it could spell really icy trouble, especially in southern Michigan, much of Pennsylvania, southeastern New York and into parts of southern New England. Travel will obviously be seriously hampered in these areas.

The worst hit areas are also going to have problems with trees, branches and power lines coming down Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Don't go to Pennsylvania and surrounding areas Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Another pretty substantial storm looks like it will hit us with more mixed precipitation and maybe plain rain Friday and Saturday, but we'll wait on more details before we get into that too much.