That Big Storm For This Weekend Is Already Creating Wild Weather

A person enjoys a rare, but not unheard of snow flurry in Pasadena,
California Thursday. Image from LAist. 

The big storm slated to affect much of the nation through Monday is already creating some pretty extreme weather.

That trend will continue for a couple days at least.

The storm is still battering the southwestern United States with snow, wind and flooding.

Flagstaff, Arizona on Thursday had its biggest snowstorm on record, with 35.9 inches. This city sits at an elevation of around 7,000 feet in northern Arizona, so snow is common there. But not like this.

The old record for biggest snowstorm in Flagstaff was 31 inches in December, 2015, says Accuweather.

Elsewhere, there were some unusual snow flurries around the Los Angeles area, but the snow wasn't quite as unprecedented as some media outlets let on. Flurries were seen in somewhat higher elevations of Malibu, Pasadena, West Hollywood and Calabasas. Some of those areas hadn't seen snow in years, or even a couple decades, so the flakes drew countless people out to gawk.

But it didn't snow in downtown Los Angeles and it hasn't done so since 1962.

Meanwhile, the normally dry Phoenix, Arizona area was under a flood warning this morning after the storm dumped a heavy, cold rain there.

The storm this morning was reorganizing over northeastern New Mexico and wil head northeast across the Plains into the Great Lakes area.

Given the extremes this storm has already produced and the favorable dynamics for it to strengthen, this system is sure to cause a lot more problems before it heads into Canada later Sunday into Monday.

The first problem is flooding. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has declared a high risk of flooding today in parts of Tennessee and northern Mississppi and Alabama. A high risk is designated only a few times a year across the country.

Past experience shows areas that when a high risk of a flood is forecast, the subsequent result is at least one flood related death about 50 percent of the time and at least $1 million in damage 70 percent of the time.

This area of the nation is at a serious risk of flooding today, and
it has already started. The area in pink is in
especially deep trouble. 

Considering that a lot of flooding is already going on in this area, I'd say damage already well exceeds $1 million.  It was raining hard in the risk zone this morning and several rounds of downpours are forecast today and Saturday.

Severe weather and possible tornadoes are in the forecast for this same region Saturday. The good news is NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has backed off a little on the how big an area will be affected by the storm threat.

A huge swath of the Plains from Kansas to Wisconsin and Michigan are expected a snowstorm out of this with high winds. Some areas will have blizzard and white out conditions.

The storm is gathering in such a way that western New York is under the gun for some very serious winds. The National Weather Service in Buffalo said winds there could gust to 75 mph on Sunday. That's strong enough to topple trees and power lines, and worse, cause some structural damage.

The wind will be strong enough to shove ice from lakes Erie and Ontario onto shore, which would also cause a lot of damage. There's also a real risk of damaging winds Sunday in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Although there isn't all that much snow on the ground around my
house in St. Albans, Vermont - about nine inches, the snow piles
are getting big. The snow on the ground keeps getting cut back
by thaws, but the snow piles melt more slowly, then keep
building up in subsequent snowfalls

The forecast for this storm hasn't changed much since yesterday. Mixed precipitation will break out Saturday night across Vermont. Accumulations will be minor, with one to three inches of snow and sleet away from Lake Champlain.

Freezing rain could easily linger well into Sunday morning east of the Green Mountains, so travel will be an issue then. 

We'll get a lot of wind too, especially Sunday night and Monday. I have a feeling we'll at least be under a wind advisory by then. This won't be as bad as it will be out toward Buffalo, but we could still be dealing with some downed trees and power lines.

After a thaw Sunday and early Sunday night, it will turn colder again. Snow showers will fly around in the wind Monday, but they won't amount to much. There could be a few inches in the mountains.

We'll have a long spell of mostly colder than normal weather from Tuesday on through the first week of March, at least.  There will be spells of snow during this period, too. It's hard to tease out this far in advance whether any of that snow will be big dumps or little squirts of snow.

Right now, I'm thinking little squirts, but that of course could change. Don't hold me to it.