Thursday, November 15, 2018

What A Mess! Winter Storm Hits Much Of Eastern U.S (Vermont Included)

It's been quite awhile since I've seen a winter storm hit such a large part of the United States in mid-November.
A remarkably big area of the nation from Missouri to Maine
were under a variety of winter weather alerts this morning
(Areas in pink, blue and purple were under the winter
advisories. Big area for November.

As of early this morning winter storm watches and warnings, ice storm warnings and winter weather advisories stretched from Missouri to Maine. 

We're included in this here in Vermont, and I'll get into detail about what to expect in a bit. 

The big picture comes first. Many places that aren't used to November snow and ice have been hit hard. The St. Louis, Missouri area got three to four inches of snow, with up to seven inches in the suburbs.

Even the mountains of western North Carolina are being pummeled by snow and heavy accumulations of ice from freezing rain this morning. 

It's been a full-blown ice storm in parts of Indiana and Ohio, where there was so much ice this morning that travel was strongly discouraged. Close to 100,000 people were without electricity in Ohio, and that situation was worsening as of mid-morning. 

Even places along the East Coast are getting bursts of snow and ice before precipitation changes to rain. The Washington DC area got a burst of moderate snow, and that trend will continue today as the storm moves northward along the East Coast.

In the New York City area and on into southern New England, the burst of moderate to heavy snow will come just in time for today's evening commute, which I'm sure will make things just lovely there. 

Then, it will be on to northern New England

VERMONT IMPACTS

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont
has this best guess for snowfall with the upcoming storm
tonight and Friday. Areas in yellow can expect roughl
six inches of new snow. Blue areas will be closer to
five inches.
This storm is the type that I call front loaded. Out ahead of the storm a roughly east to west band of heavier snow is steadily moving north. 

That's the burst of snow I talked about just before that was in Washington DC and heading north. 

This band will move roughly southwest to northeast across Vermont tonight at a fairly slow pace. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington estimates it will start snowing in the Bennington area around 7 p.m. this evening. By around 1 a.m. Friday, this snow should reach the Northeast Kingdom.

Exactly how this band moves and potentially pivots will determine how much snow falls, as most of the accumulation will come as this ribbon of heavier snow passes through. 

Many areas of Vermont could see snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour for about five hours. This translates to 5 to as much as 12 inches of total snowfall. 

Northeastern Vermont is under a winter storm warning for the second time this week. The Adirondacks are also under that warning. These two areas are forecast to pick up five to nine inches of new snow, with possibly a light glaze of ice on top of that which would come toward the end of the storm tomorrow. 

The rest of Vermont is under a slightly less dire but still noteworthy winter weather advisory, with four to six inches of snow expected. I have to say  the expected snowfall totals in the advisory areas isn't much different from those of us under a winter storm warning, but oh well.

The bottom line is it's sure to be a rather frightful commute to work Friday morning statewide. The cliche advisories are out: Take lots of extra time to make get to work and school, clear the snow completely off your car, drive slowly, and watch out for those idiots who can't drive in the snow. They're always out there.

As for you smug people in the Champlain Valley who escaped most of the snow Tuesday, you're out of luck. The valley will share in that four to six inch snowfall this time. 

As the snow keeps coming down overnight and Friday morning, it will keep getting wetter and heavier, which puts the risk of broken tree limbs and power lines in play. So be prepared for that, too.

The evening commute Friday might be a little better, but there will still be some snow showers around, so be prepared for that. 

As I whined about yesterday, it's really like winter has settled in early. Some places this morning were brutal. Island Pond, Vermont reported a reading of 6 below. Saranac Lake, NY was 4 below. 

Snow cover is getting deep in some high elevations. I noticed the snow depth this morning in Sheffield, Vermont, high in the Northeast Kingdom, is up to 14 inches. Pretty impressive for mid-November. 

The forecast through Thanksgiving calls for continued wintry temperatures. On the bright side, it doesn't look like there will be any blockbuster snowfalls. At least at this point. But there will be occasional periods of flurries and snow showers to keep things looking like mid-winter.  

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