Back To Winter As Snow Alerts Go Back Up In New England

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has this
best early guess for snowfall from the storm tonight and Tuesday
Areas shaded in yellow and orange, mostly in the higher
elevations, can expect more than six inches of new snow. 

12:30 PM UPDATE:

The onset of the precipitation is a little quicker than first thought. If it's not raining or snowing where you are as of early this afternoon, it will any minute now.

There are still no winter weather advisories or warnings in the Champlain Valley as of noon, because for now, forecasts are sticking with three inches or less.

Here's a BIG however, however.

There are some indications that a band of heavier precipitation might set up over or near the Champlain Valley Tuesday morning.

If that happens, the air will cool further and there could be a period of fairly heavy snow.

This is a maybe, maybe not scenario. It's hard to tell at this point if it will actually happen, so don't count on it. But since it's a possibility, I wanted to mention it.

If you live in the Champlain Valley, get up earlier than usual and peek out the window and check for updated forecasts. If we do get a snowy surprise, you'll want to leave earlier for school or work. If there's no unexpected extra snow, you can kick back and have an extra cup of coffee.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The way this month has been going, yesterday was an absolutely gorgeous beach day here in Vermont.

Yes, it was overcast, wet and damp, and temperatures stayed chilly-ish, hovering a few degrees either side of 40.

But it was the first warmer-than-average day, at least in Burlington, Vermont since November 8. That's 16 consecutive days of below normal readings, which I think is the longest stretch this year.

I hope you enjoyed it, because it's back to winter tonight and tomorrow. It won't get particularly cold, but it will get snowy. Only somewhat snowy in the warmest valleys, but wicked snowy up in the mountains.

Here's the deal: A storm which unleashed the first November blizzard since 1959 on parts of Kansas, Iowa and Illinois is headed toward the area around Buffalo, New York by this evening.  A new storm will get going somewhere near New York City then head up along the New England coast tonight. The storm near Buffalo will begin to fade, and the new coastal storm will take over as the main player.

Rain will break out across the region this afternoon. Any snow that falls at first will only come down on the tippy top of the mountains. But as the night wears on, the snow will advance downward in elevation, so that by dawn Tuesday, even the valleys will probably be getting snow.

This is a tricky forecast because the timing of when a particular spot goes from rain to snow tonight will determine how much accumulation results.

The scenario is subject to change, but right now it looks like the Adirondacks and central and southern Green Mountains will turn out to be the big winners. This area is under a winter storm warning, with accumulations of four to eight inches by Tuesday evening. The deepest snow will be at elevations of over 1,000 feet.

Northern Vermont away from the Champlain Valley looks like they're in for three to six inches of snow. The Champlain Valley will get anywhere from a slushy dusting to three inches of snow, with the most being up north near St. Albans.

The way the storm is setting up also means there will probably be some strong, gusty winds on the western slopes of the Green Mountains, especially from Addison County south. Gusts between late this afternoon and early Tuesday could easily reach 50 mph.

With all this wet snow and wind, power failures will be a good bet. Be ready tonight and tomorrow morning for such an event, especially in those areas that are going to be especially snowy and windy.

The storm's upper level support will sit and spin over us or at least nearby during the middle of the week, which will keep the snow showers going. The valleys could get another couple or few inches of wet snow out of this setup.

The mountains will be the big winners, with the Adirondacks and Green Mountains picking up a good foot or two of snow between now and Thursday.

This storm is also going to thump northern New Hampshire and much of Maine with close to a foot of snow Monday night through Wednesday.

At least we won't have any more subzero cold for at least the next 10 days. We'll take anything we can get, right?