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| The National Weather Service in South Burlington has this preliminary snow forecast map for Tuesday. Areas in the darkest blue can expect at least four inches of new snow. Areas in yellor or orange can expect at least six inches. |
After a pretty quiet day today, things will definitely get messy tonight and Tuesday.
That well-advertised storm is forming in the Southeast, carrying a tornado risk this morning along the Gulf Coast and some heavy rain into that region.
The storm will zoom up the East Coast tonight and Tuesday. Early guesses are the storm will arrive around Long Island, New York about noon-ish and reach coastal Maine later in the afternoon.
As is usual with these fast moving coastal storms, most of the precipitation will be out ahead of and right along with the storm. Since it will be colder than it was in the last coastal storm we had Friday, it still looks like pretty much everybody in Vermont will get some snow, except perhaps on valley floors in the far south.
Um, are your snow tires on yet?
This won't be a blockbuster storm by any means in the grand scheme of things. But you will want to plan extra time to get to work or school Tuesday morning. Snow will come in during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday morning, even in the Champlain Valley banana belt. Roads will very likely be challenging.
Since many of us haven't had to drive in this crap yet, we're not used to it. Plus, as always, there will be some idiots out there who think a 65 mph speed limit is a suggestion, and 75 mph is fine even in a snowstorm. Go figure.
Many areas, especially the Champlain Valley and valleys in central and southern Vermont will probably go over to the a cold rain for a good part of the day Tuesday, but meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington think it will stay mostly or all snow north of Route 15 except right in the Champlain Valley.
The best guess is a slushy coating to three inches of accumulation will hit the Champlain Valley with the most up toward St. Albans and the least south of Burlington.
Accumulations rise to three to six inches north of Route 2 away from the valley. Three to six inches also looks like a good bet in the high elevations of central and southern Vermont and in the Adirondacks.
If you think you will be out of the woods with this storm by the time the Tuesday evening commute comes along, think again. The storm will be getting ready to head into the Canadian Maritimes at that point. In that position, the storm will pull down a blast of cold air into our region, changing any rain back to snow, even in the valleys.
There won't be a huge amount of accumulation, but wet roads will turn icy and maybe snow covered again as you head home as darkness falls Tuesday afternoon.
On the bright side, it could be worse, Mark Breen of Eye On The Sky fame, noted this morning that on this date in 1968, Vermont had a general 6 to 24 inch snowfall. On that date, Readsboro got 12 inches of snow, St. Albans clocked in with 11 inches, and Mount Mansfield got dumped with 20 inches.
Getting back to Tuesday: As in any coastal storm forecast, things usually don't work out exactly as planned. What you just read is what the National Weather Service and other meteorologists think is going to happen. Some adjustments to the forecast are inevitable.
Looking forward, winter continues unabated Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures way below normal.
Another cold storm looks possible at the end of the week, but computer forecasting models are all over the place with this thing. We're going to have to wait a couple days to see where that forecast settles.
No matter what happens with Friday's storm, it will remain very cold and wintry through at least next Sunday.
For those of you who are dreading or complaining about the snow and cold, watch the following video of refugee children from Eritrea now in Canada experiencing the first snowfall they've seen in their lives. Puts things in perspective and very charming.
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