Thursday Evening Update: Winter Storm Still Moving Into Vermont To Create Friday Mess

The latest NWS/South Burlington snow prediction map for the
upcoming storm. It's showing a general five to eight inches
of new snow regionwide, but I imagine some favored places
might end up closer to 10-12 inches. 

As of late afternoon Thursday, the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has upgraded the winter weather advisory in all but western Rutland County and Bennington County to a winter storm warning.

All day long, I suspected the NWS would make that move, and sure enough.

I theorize that part of the motivation to upgrade to a warning is to alert people that this snowstorm is surely going to make a mess of our Friday morning commute to work and school.

I imagine, though, that quite a few schools in Vermont might shut down for the day on Friday.

The heaviest, most intense  snow for most of Vermont should come through just before or during the morning commute.

Forecast snow accumulations have been bumped up slightly, and almost all of us in Vermont should see at least six to ten inches of new snow by the time this is all said and done.  By the way, this includes the Champlain Valley, so I would remind you once again this isn't a high elevation storm like the last few.

I would not be at all surprised if a few places, especially in higher elevations, pick up a foot of snow or even a bit more than that.

By Vermont standards, this is a mid-sized, typical winter snowstorm, at least on paper. But there are a few things that are going on to make this one more risky than usual.

First of all, and most importantly, this will be the first big dump of snow of the season on the most heavily populated parts of Vermont. We're not used to driving in these conditions, so we don't have our "snow legs."

Some of us, ahem, have not gotten our snow tires yet, so that's an issue.

Here's another problem: As I alluded to, the timing of the heaviest snow could not possibly be worse. We'll really get dumped on before and during the morning commute. So it will take some time to clean the snow and ice from our cars and trucks.

Then we have to plow our way over snowy, icy roads. Yes, I'm sure the Vermont Agency of Transportation trucks will be out, but there's only so much they can do when it's snowing at a rate of an inch or more per hour.

The burst of heaviest snow will come through a little after midnight in far southern Vermont and reach northern Vermont between I'd say 4 and 7 a.m.

Yet another problem is that in many locations, especially in the valleys, is the snow will become somewhat wet and heavy. Unlike dry, powdery snow, wet snow tends to compact into a particularly slick, wet ice beneath car tires. It just makes everything worse.

Snow will taper to snow showers in the afternoon and evening, but the risk of icy roads will definitely continue.

Usually, a November snowstorm like this melts almost completely away within a week or a little more, at least in the valleys. I don't see that happening this time. Temperatures will stay below normal at least through Thanksgiving, and probably beyond.

Some afternoons will get above freezing in the valleys during this time frame, so some snow might melt. But we will also have additional light snow showers from time to time over the next week, even if there are no further heavier snows in the immediate future.

Which means this snow is going to stick around for awhile.

Skiers and riders must be ecstatic. It looks like Vermont will have the best Thanksgiving week snow conditions in ages, possibly since the late 1960s or early 1970s. It'll almost be like January conditions. Snowshoeing and cross country skiing are usually out of the question in the valleys during a Vermont November.

Not this year.

ELSEWHERE: A MESS

Today is awful from Maryland to New England.

Brooklyn Bridge in the snow today. 

As expected, an area of heavy snow is making its way north through New Jersey into the New York City metro area and southern New England just in time for this evening's commute.

Snow in and around New York City was coming down at a rate of one to two inches per hour late this afternoon. All lanes on the George Washington Bridge were shut down late this afternoon by snow and accidents. Video from the GWB shows that multiple cars and trucks collided on the icy pavement.  

Some areas around New York City reported two inches of snow in just 40 minutes.

The storm has turned deadly The Weather Channel reports seven deaths and dozens of injuries due to crashes on snowy and icy highways.

Here's a video of the first snowstorm of the season today in New York's Central Park: