What A Mess! Winter Storm Hits Much Of Eastern U.S (Vermont Included)

It's been quite awhile since I've seen a winter storm hit such a large part of the United States in mid-November.

A remarkably big area of the nation from Missouri to Maine
were under a variety of winter weather alerts this morning
(Areas in pink, blue and purple were under the winter
advisories. Big area for November.

As of early this morning winter storm watches and warnings, ice storm warnings and winter weather advisories stretched from Missouri to Maine. 

We're included in this here in Vermont, and I'll get into detail about what to expect in a bit. 

The big picture comes first. Many places that aren't used to November snow and ice have been hit hard. The St. Louis, Missouri area got three to four inches of snow, with up to seven inches in the suburbs.

Even the mountains of western North Carolina are being pummeled by snow and heavy accumulations of ice from freezing rain this morning. 

It's been a full-blown ice storm in parts of Indiana and Ohio, where there was so much ice this morning that travel was strongly discouraged. Close to 100,000 people were without electricity in Ohio, and that situation was worsening as of mid-morning. 

Even places along the East Coast are getting bursts of snow and ice before precipitation changes to rain. The Washington DC area got a burst of moderate snow, and that trend will continue today as the storm moves northward along the East Coast.

In the New York City area and on into southern New England, the burst of moderate to heavy snow will come just in time for today's evening commute, which I'm sure will make things just lovely there. 

Then, it will be on to northern New England

VERMONT IMPACTS

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont
has this best guess for snowfall with the upcoming storm
tonight and Friday. Areas in yellow can expect roughl
six inches of new snow. Blue areas will be closer to
five inches.

This storm is the type that I call front loaded. Out ahead of the storm a roughly east to west band of heavier snow is steadily moving north. 

That's the burst of snow I talked about just before that was in Washington DC and heading north. 

This band will move roughly southwest to northeast across Vermont tonight at a fairly slow pace. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington estimates it will start snowing in the Bennington area around 7 p.m. this evening. By around 1 a.m. Friday, this snow should reach the Northeast Kingdom.

Exactly how this band moves and potentially pivots will determine how much snow falls, as most of the accumulation will come as this ribbon of heavier snow passes through. 

Many areas of Vermont could see snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour for about five hours. This translates to 5 to as much as 12 inches of total snowfall. 

Northeastern Vermont is under a winter storm warning for the second time this week. The Adirondacks are also under that warning. These two areas are forecast to pick up five to nine inches of new snow, with possibly a light glaze of ice on top of that which would come toward the end of the storm tomorrow. 

The rest of Vermont is under a slightly less dire but still noteworthy winter weather advisory, with four to six inches of snow expected. I have to say  the expected snowfall totals in the advisory areas isn't much different from those of us under a winter storm warning, but oh well.

The bottom line is it's sure to be a rather frightful commute to work Friday morning statewide. The cliche advisories are out: Take lots of extra time to make get to work and school, clear the snow completely off your car, drive slowly, and watch out for those idiots who can't drive in the snow. They're always out there.

As for you smug people in the Champlain Valley who escaped most of the snow Tuesday, you're out of luck. The valley will share in that four to six inch snowfall this time. 

As the snow keeps coming down overnight and Friday morning, it will keep getting wetter and heavier, which puts the risk of broken tree limbs and power lines in play. So be prepared for that, too.

The evening commute Friday might be a little better, but there will still be some snow showers around, so be prepared for that. 

As I whined about yesterday, it's really like winter has settled in early. Some places this morning were brutal. Island Pond, Vermont reported a reading of 6 below. Saranac Lake, NY was 4 below. 

Snow cover is getting deep in some high elevations. I noticed the snow depth this morning in Sheffield, Vermont, high in the Northeast Kingdom, is up to 14 inches. Pretty impressive for mid-November. 

The forecast through Thanksgiving calls for continued wintry temperatures. On the bright side, it doesn't look like there will be any blockbuster snowfalls. At least at this point. But there will be occasional periods of flurries and snow showers to keep things looking like mid-winter.  

East Coast So Wet A Little Rain Raises Flood Threat

Flash flooding in Jericho, Vermont in 2013. Vermont has escaped
the heavy rains that have repeatedly swamped the East Coast from
Southern New England to the Carolinas. Scenes like this one
have been common in that region all summer and into the fall.

Unlike here in northern Vermont, it has been a super, duper wet summer from southern New England down to the Carolinas.

Flooding has been a constant threat all summer. There have been repeated, disastrous floods since May, culiminating with the Hurricane Florence disaster in the Carolinas.

Some areas in the East are having record wet years so far. A few places have had 20 or more inches of rain more than normal for this point in the year.

This morning, a middling storm is passing up the East Coast, dropping one to two inches of rain along most of its path.

Such amounts of rain are usually no big deal, But the ground is so saturated that flood alerts this morning extend from Virginia to southern New England. 

Connecticut especially doesn't need the rain they're getting this morning. While we up north got relatively moderate amounts of rain Tuesday and Wednesday, they got dumped on big time. Up to eight inches of rain fell, causing flash floods that damaged homes and businesses, and blocked numerous roads.

Here in northern Vermont, this morning's rain was lighter than in points south, but still welcome indeed. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, issued Thursday, still has a good chunk of northwestern Vermont in a moderate drought, but that doesn't really take into account the rain we had Wednesday.

This September in northern Vermont has actually been a bit wetter than normal. Nothing extreme, but we'll take it.

I think as we keep getting rains (I hope!) the drought will slowly fade. The good news over the next week is that northern New England is expected to get another inch or so of rain, but the Middle Atlantic States and southern New England will get very little precipitation.

Maybe they can start to dry out a little.

From Frigid To Messy Icy Wet Big Warm Up In The Northeast (Southern Tornadoes, Too!)

Lots of winter weather alerts (in blue and pink)
covered the eastern United States this morning
as yet another storm plows through. 

UPDATE: 2 p.m. Monday.


The amount of severe weather in the Gulf Coast states appears to be more extenstive than I, and other forecasters expected.


I've seen several tornado warnings in parts of the south and I've seen at least two reports of confirmed tornadoes on the ground.


Shortly after 1:30 p.m., I noticed reports of a large and dangerous tornado approaching Rockport, Mississippi.


Let's hope it lifted before reaching town.


The threat of torndoes will continue in the deep south through the rest of the day.


It's also shaping up to be a big mess around the Washington DC area and nearby Maryland and Virginia. Several inches of snow have fallen, and it looks as if they'll get several hours of rather heavy freezing rain later this afternoon and tonight, before an eventual changeover to rain.


Roads will be horrendous, and there may be issues with broken trees and power lines in that region later on.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


Yesterday, the National Weather Service national map had the blue shade of wind chill warnings and advisories covering virtually all of the Northeast.

Today that map still has a blue coloring again for almost the entire region, but the shade has changed. It's now not for wind chills, but for winter weather advisories and winter storm watches.

It's going to be messy, as it always in on those occasions when the winter temperature skyrockets from deep Arctic chill to substantial thaw, as it will here.

THE SET UP:

A storm is forming in the lower Mississippi Valley and will head northward through late Tuesday, when it'll go into eastern Canada.

Unlike many nor'easters that moved northward off the coast this winter, this storm will track inland, along the Appalachian mountains, very roughly on a track from Atlanta, Georgia to Burlington, Vermont. (The storm could go several dozen miles west or east of this line, you can never predict these things precisely.)

Huge amounts of moisture will be flung well north of this storm as it gathers itself in the Southeast today and tonight, and that precipitation will continue as the storm moves on a beeline toward southeastern Canada late Tuesday night.

OK, WHAT DO WE GET?

Snow and mixed precipitation have already broken out in Virginia and parts of the Carolinas where, winter storm warnings are up for as much as seven inches of snow, followed by ice accumulations today.

All up and down the Eastern United States, all the way to New England and southeastern Canada, snow will start today and tonight, then, from north to south, change to sleet and freezing rain, then rain.

For pretty much the entire eastern United States, this means a long, sloppy, icy dangerous morning commute Tuesday morning.

Up in New England especially, even after the precipitation changes to rain, there's still going to be trouble for awhile. We had that Arctic outbreak which brought record lows to some towns.

It was in the teens and low 20s below zero again this morning across most of northern New York and northern New England. So even when temperatures rise above freezing, the rain will freeze on a lot of that superchilled pavement.

If you see the temperature is between 35 and 40 degrees or something like that tomorrow as temperaures rise in New England and much of eastern New York,  don't assume the roads are just wet. They might be glare ice. Sidewalks in particular won't thaw fast. Especially if you're a little unsteady on your feet, tomorrow might not be a good idea to walk into town.

By mid to late afternoon Tuesday the temperature contrast across much of the Northeast  will be something to behold.

In eastern New England where temperatures in many areas were in the single numbers and teens below zero Sunday morning and close to zero this morning, readings will shoot up into the 50s to possibly low 60s Tuesday afternoon. That's quite a weather whiplash!

This surge of warm air in eastern New England might be accompanied by strong damaging winds, as the storm system really winds up.

It's always colder on the west side of a storm track. That means it'll stay cold in western Pennsylvania and western New York. Winter storm warnings are up for the western third of New York, as a foot of snow might come down with this thing.

In northwestern New York, especially in the St. Lawrence Valley, snow might change to a period of heavy freezing rain, so there's worry that trees and wires could come down there as ice accumulates. A winter storm watch is in effect there. 


By the way, south of the storm, severe weather is possible along the Gulf Coast today. Strong thunderstorm winds, hail and maybe a couple of tornadoes might blossom amid the rain and storms from the Louisiana/Texas border to the Florida panhandle.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE STORM?

The quick answer is, not much. Wednesday, the storm will be lumbering north through eastern Canada

In New England, it will remain fairly mild Wednesday, but gradually cool down under somewhat gusty west winds. A few snow showers will probably dust the northern mountains.

A quick shot of cold air will come in for Thursday and Thursday night but it won't be nearly as cold as it was this past weekend.

Next weekend looks mild, with some snow and rain showers scattered about the Northeast, more so the further north you go.

After THAT, the weather pattern looks like it might be active, but I can't tell you much more than that It's too far into the future to offer a precise forecast.

My guess is temperatures will be on a rollar coaster with cold snaps interspersing with thaws. There will likely be precipitation chances every second or third day for the rest of the month, but there's no telling what kind of precipitation or how much yet.