Does Rain Help Republicans On Election Day?

Where it will be wet on Election Day 2018
Via the Boston Globe. 

A constant trope as an election day nears is, will the weather affect turnout?

Tomorrow is mid-term election day in America, so we're hearing this weather question again.

Weather probably does affect turnout, one way or another, and there is some research to suggest rain helps Republicans.

This is such a weird election, and such a weird, fraught moment in American  history, that the research might go out the window.
But as it stands now, some research says that traditionally, people who were more likely to vote no matter what the weather were white and older, which skews toward Republicans. That's why you might have heard that Republicans always hope for stormy weather on Election Day.

USA Today points to research that suggests that rainy weather might influence some people who were half-heartedly planning on voting for Democrats to switch their vote to Republican at the last minute.

Says USA Today:

"Study authors think it's because voters may be more averse to risk during poor weather. Previous political studies in psychology and other fields have shown that conservatives tend to be more pessimistic and risk-averse than liberals."

The effect of weather are small on election results, at least in the grand scheme of things. But it looks like rain could change the results of a particularly tight electoral contest.'

I wonder if this weird year will contradict this research. The following is my unscientific opinion, not  research. Republicans are different this year than in the past. They're not conservative in the traditional sense. The president is, shall we say, a firebrand, who stirs his base up, and who stirs the opposition up.  There's not a lot of traditional conservatism out there.

I wonder if this change will also alter the idea that rain helps Republicans.  That answer will be hard to tease out, even if researchers study parts of the United States that are rainy on election day. There's so many factors going into this.

For what it's worth, the East Coast and Great Lakes look to be rainy, and in some places downright stormy tomorrow, Election Day. Some showers are likely in the Pacific Northwest. Parts of the northern and central Rockies will get snow. It also looks like it will snow in North Dakota and northern Minnesota. The rest of the country looks to be mostly dry.

Whatever the weather tomorrow, you really have to suck it up and vote, no matter what the weather. If you get a bit wet or a bit cold waiting in line to vote, that's a tiny, tiny price to pay considering what's at stake.

You can easily change into dry and warm clothes once you get home from voting. It's a lot harder to change an election outcome you don't like. So you'd better do your best to influence things by voting

I'll see you at the polls! .