All Kinds Of Bad, Dangerous Weather With Looming Big Storm

The areas in yellow, orange and especially red
are under the gun for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms
today and tonight.  

One of the worst storms in what has been an active winter for the United States is about to hit.

Pretty much every hazard is coming with this one, including a widespread area under risk of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Depending upon where you are, theres also a risk of strong winds, flooding, snow and ice.

I'll go over all aspects of this storm, of course.

An Initial Burst

Before the main show, there's actually a smaller, initial storm that's coming along first. It was depositing moderate rain in the Mid-Atlantic states this morning, and will very likely produce a burst of snow, then mixed precipitation later today and tonight in the Northeast.

Winter weather advisories are up for much of the Northeast because of this initial snow. Some areas could get up to three inches of snow. This evening's commute could be tricky across Pennsylvania, southern New York and possibly into southern New England,

It'll still be cold enough for freezing rain and icy roads in much of New England and a few colder pockets of New York and Pennsylvania Wednesday morning. The good news is the ice won't be as bad as the last storm around the 15th and 16th of this month because we didn't have a big Arctic outbeak in the past couple days to chill pavement.

Still, watch out in the Northeast while driving to work tomorrow morning. It'll be weird, with some areas well above freezing and other sheltered low spots still cold. You might be cruising along fast on wet pavement and suddently encounter an ice rink. So just keep it slow.

The Main Show, With Tornadoes:

As this smaller, initial storm affects the Northeast later today, the main storm will have been organizing in the south all day today.

Usually these types of storms have a lot of energy and moisture available to them, but they're still fairly unorganized. The only consolidate into a strengthening storm center as they move up the East Coast or northward toward the Great Lakes.

This time, the storm center itself will already be strong over Louisiana today, and will keep getting stronger  as it moves into the Tennessee Valley tonight.

All this means big trouble for the Southeast:

Winds aloft will be strong, and change directions with height. This is a very favorable set up to create strong, spinning thunderstorms. Those are the kind that can easily create tornadoes, sometimes strong ones.

The threat for tornadoes will exist today and tomorrow in a wide area from Louisiana to southeastern Virginia.

Today, the threat will start to ncrease first in far eastern Texas and Louisiana, then get more threatening as you go east. Much of the southeast is at risk for tornadoes later today and tonight, but the biggest chance lies across much of the Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.

This would include the cities of New Orleans, Jackson and Hattiesburg, Mississippi, Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has this area in a moderate risk for severe weather, the second highest alert level for storms in a five-level alert system. When there's a moderate risk, it's a sign forecasters are particularly worried about the storm potential.

Schools are already closed in many of these areas today, because nobody wants hundreds of kids in one building being hit by a tornado, and they don't want them out in school buses if dangerous weather hits.

The individual storms and tornadoes will move forward very fast, so there won't be much time to take shelter when a tornado appears. Worse, the strongest tornadoes might come after dark in parts of Alabama and Georgia. People will be either sleeping, or it will be too dark to see them coming.

Everybody in the area I outlined, and in the areas under threat tomorrow, should have a weather radio with them. If you get a warning, take shelter instantly, even if you don't see skies that look particularly threatening. These tornadoes and severe storms will sneak up on you fast.

As the main storm center rides north toward the Great Lakes, very warm humid air will flood northward up the eastern seaboard. This will extend the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes as far north as North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. That'll be tomorrow, tomorrow night and for points furthest east, Thursday morning.

A marginally severe thunderstorm or two might work as far north as Atlantic City, New Jersey on Thursday morning.

Non-severe thunderstorms Thursday could easily extend as far north as Montreal, and could happen anywhere in New England except possibly much of Maine

Other Storm Risks:

As is often the case with this kind of storm, there's going to be areas of heavy rain and possible flooding with this.

Flash flood watches are up for a broad area from central Alabama northeastward to western North Carolina and western Virginia. Heavy rain with this storm will fall on soil already saturated by previous storms

Local flooding is possible in downpours throughout the East with this storm, but it probably won't be extensive, record flooding. Just don't drive through roads that are flooded

Another area of heavy rain could hit southern Quebec, where there is the possibility of at least a little flooding in spots, says Environment Canada.

It's always colder on the west side of storms, and this case is no exception. Winter storm watches for possible heavy snow are up for northwestern Indiana and much of Michigan.