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| Traffic moved slowly down the hill on Fairfield Hill Road in St. Albans, Vermont as snow piled up quickly to nearly two inches deep. It will have changed to rain by afternoon. |
I woke up this morning to a fairly heavy, wet snow, mixed with a little sleet at my hacienda in St. Albans. It was still coming down as of 7:15 a.m. and we'd accumulated 1.7 inches already. Roads are slippery.
If it hasn't already done so where you are, the snow will go over to sleet and freezing rain, then to rain pretty soon.
If you haven't left for your morning commute yet, be prepared for a slow go of it. The road crews are out, but it's still iffy out there.
The snow and ice will change to a light, cold, but not freezing rain this afternoon, so people who like this brief winter wonderland better get out there now and enjoy it because it's going away pretty soon.
Those of you who managed to squeeze out a couple inches of fresh powder won't get much more before the changeover to ice, then rain.
Temperatures will keep rising tonight as that strong storm system passes to our west. It will draw lots of warm, wet air ahead of it into our neck of the woods.
As you may have heard, this storm has caused a lot of tornadoes across the South, and will do so again in the Mid-Atlantic and southern Atlantic coasts today. The unstable air associated with this will scream northward all the way to us later tonight and tomorrow.
Don't be at all surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder or two or three with this. It's unusual to have thunderstorms with this kind of system get north to Vermont this early in the season, but there you go.
In fact, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of isolated severe thunderstorms extending as far north as Rutland, Vermont. I don't think I've ever seen the Storm Prediction Center entertain the notion of a severe thunderstorm in Vermont in February. Incredible!
If it does thunder, it will be twice this winter it's occured. A somewhat similar storm touched off Vermont thunderstorms on January 10. An odd winter indeed.
At least any thunderstorms we get with this storm won't contain any tornadoes like down south, so that's a good thing.
Temperatures will briefly skyrocket again on Thursday, reaching the 50s again in most of Vermont. That would be the 16th time since December 1 it's gotten to 50 degrees or higher in Burlington. That's an awful lot of warm days for a Vermont winter.
There's going to be quite a bit of rain with this thing. The NOAA's national site calls for more than two inches of rain in much of Vermont, though the National Weather Service office in Burlington thinks it will be more along the lines of three quarters of an inch to 1.5 inches of rain.
Under normal conditions for late February, when there's a lot of snow on the ground, an inch of rain, temperatures in the 50s and snow melt is a recipe for a somewhat nasty flood. But there's hardly any snow on the ground, so the flooding won't be that bad, if we get any.
Rivers will sharply rise, and the Otter Creek in Rutland County might actually get to minor flood stage.
Do note the ground is frozen, so a lot of water will pool in low spots rather than soak into the ground. So beware, because the sudden lake in your backyard might end up flowing into your basement. Get those sump pumps ready!
Even in such warm winters in the Green Mountain State, the balminess never lasts and that will be the case here. The storm's cold front will bluster through by Thursday night, dropping temperatures back down below freezing by Friday morning in most spots.
There will be a little snow with this cold front, with a dusting in some of the valleys and maybe a couple inches in the mountains. No big deal, but be prepared for some ice on the roads Friday morning as Thursday's rain freezes and a little snow comes down on top of it.
Heading into the weekend, Vermont can expect some fairly average weather for late February, with highs in the upper 20s and 30s, lows mostly in the teens and maybe some snow showers around here and there.
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