Wednesday Evening Update: Rapid Fire Tornadoes, Other Quick Moving Dangers Eastern United States

Large Midwestern style tornado near
Evergreen, Virginia this afternoon. 

Today has been as active a weather day in the eastern United States as I can remember, and it's been pretty exciting here in my home base in Vermont as well.

This excitement - and danger - will continue much of the night and into Thursday morning in many areas of the East, including Vermont.

Vermont might not be nearly in as much danger as the core of the tornado threat areas in the Mid-Atlantic states, but you'll still want to pay attention to the weather.

As of mid and late afternoon, tornadoes were firing up in the Carolinas and Virginia, and the situation will continue to worsen into the early evening there.

Tornado watches extend from South Carolina all the way north to central New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. 

I'm sure I've never seen tornado watches so far north in February. Especially along the Eastern Seaboard. This might have happened before but I don't remember when. This is quite an odd storm.

Major tornado damage this afternoon near
Appomattox, Virginia.  

I'll combine this evening's storm update both broadly, taking in what's happening with the huge storm system's tornados, storms, floods and wind, with what's going on here in Vermont for my Green Mountain State readers.

This situation kinda warrants doing one of my live blogs, in which I continuously update things as events progress, but I have commitments elsewhere this evening,

Follow my Twitter account, @mattalltradesb, for updates I can sneak in when I'm able to.

More importantly, if you're in an area under tornado watches, or warnings, or flood, severe thunderstorm or other weather danger watches, pay attention to the National Weather Service or your most trusted weather source for the latest information.  

As noted, tornadoes were spinning up left and right in the Mid-Atlantic states. Some of them will be brief spin ups. A few will become long lasting, destructive, strong tornadoes.

I've seen numerous tornado warnings, coming one right after another. Some of the radar signatures I've seen are downright scary, with strong evidence of tornadoes headed toward heavily populated cities and signatures that suggest a lot of debris, like broken up buildings and trees, lofted into the air.

 A nasty looking wall cloud, with a potential for a tornado
approaches the Universith of North Carolina Wednesday
  

The tornado threat in the Carolinas will end later this evening as the strong storm's cold front pushes off the coast.

But the threat will come later as you move north, as the cold front won't come through until later in those regions.

While the biggest threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is from central New Jersey south, New York and New England isn't completely out of the woods.  

There could even be some rotating supercells as far north as the southern half of New England.

While very highly unlikely, it's theoretically possible for a brief tornado to touch down as far north as Bennington, Vermont or Keene, New Hampshire.

VERMONT WEATHER THREATS

Here where I live in Vermont, this morning's snow turned into a cold, steady rain today. Temperatures remained below freezing in much of eastern Vermont, so it's been freezing rain. Roads there are slick, and will be through the evening, before temperatures rise.

As of 3 p.m, Montpelier, Vermont had a good seven consecutive hours of freezing rain. Some of it came down moderately. Not only are the roads bad there and elsewhere in the northeastern quarter of Vermont, there's a chance a few tree branches and power lines could break before temperatures this evening warm above freezing and melt the ice.

I've been impressed by how much steadier and heavier the rain in Vermont has been today compared to many forecasts. The ground is frozen, so between the snow that fell this morning and the rain this afternoon, there's starting to be a lot of standing water.  

Snow, them a drenching rain falling on frozen ground
created a lot of slush and flowing water in
my yard today in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Also, small streams are on the rise. There could be localized flooding anywhere in Vermont tonight and Thursday, especially I think in the northern half of the state where rain has been heaviest.

The most interesting weather in Vermont will come late tonight, mostly after midnight, and going into the early morning hours Thursday.

That's when the storm's cold front will be approaching, then passing the state, pretty much southwest to northeast.

As I noted, the dynamics that can cause severe thunderstorms are being flung much further north than is normal for late February.

There will be a surge of warm air coming into Vermont overnight, though it won't be as strong as more to the south. Still, temperatures in some areas will climb into the 50s by dawn.

Even worse, the storm system will create what is known as a low level jet, which is essentially a band of very strong winds a few thousand feet overhead. Winds up there could reach hurricane force, although we down on the ground don't have to worry about that.

HOWEVER:

This type of weather set up is conducive to form at least a few scattered thunderstorms embedded with the rain coming in ahead of and with the cold front.

The thunderstorms could "grab" some of that high level wind and bring it to the surface, which would create some damaging wind gusts. This could happen anywhere in Vermont with this system, but most areas won't have that problem. I just want to alert you to the possibility of it happening.

The weather set up also encourages thunderstorms to spin. There's a small chance this set up could create some rotating supercell thunderstorms as far north as perhaps Rutland and White River Junction.

Now before you panic, the chances of what follows is highly remote. Believe me, it's NOT something you should count on.

But there is a theoretical possibility that a brief tornado could spin up in far southern Vermont with this. I strongly doubt this would happen, and even if it did, nothing would be remotely as destructive as what's going on in the South.

But, tornadoes are rare in Vermont to begin with. We average one a year, if that. I've never heard of one in February, as Vermont twisters invariably happen in the warmest months of the year. Wouldn't it be wild if a brief tornado touched down in Vermont in February? That would be one for the record books.

I do see one computer model that has a very strong squall line of thunderstorms approaching western Massachusetts and Bennington County, Vermont just after midnight tonight.

With the possibility of rambuctious North Country thunderstors in mind,  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a marginal chance of severe thunderstorms extending as far north as Rutland and White River Junction. 

Though as a noted, there could be a localized strong thunderstorm wind gust all the way to the Canadian border.

After morning highs in the 50s, which could challenge records for the date Thursday, temperatures will start to fall into and through the 40s Thursday afternoon. By then, rain showers will become much lighter in Vermont.

Temperatures will continue to fall to below freezing levels Thursday night, and there could be a few snow showers around then and on Friday.

Which is perfectly normal weather for Vermont this time of year. Imagine that. Normal weather in a Green Mountain State winter that has been extraordinary in its weirdness and extremes.