Large Storm In East This Week; More Wet Than Snowy

Forecasters are getting a much better handle on the fairly large storm that's coming up midweek.

Here's one version of the forecasted storm
on Wednesday and Thursday. Results will
probably vary, but this forecast map has
the storm moving north over western New York
Thursday morning, bringing rain to Vermont
and the rest of New England.

It's definitely looking more wet than white in the eastern United States, including in my home base of Vermont.  

Computer models are still struggling with this storm, so the forecast isn't completely set in stone. It could still surprise. 

But at this point it seems it'll behave similarly to the last storm that brought ice and rain to the East last week with one major exception: 

There's MUCH less cold air ahead of this storm, so freezing rain and ice and that sort of thing don't look like it will be as intense and widespread as last time.

In Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, this storm is mostly looking like another blow to the ski industry and winter lovers. There probably will be some snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, but at this point, it'll probably go over to a light, occasional rain Wednesday, and then a steadier, heavier rain Wednesday night and/or Thursday.

Northern New England is getting quite the snow drought this year. 

Still, some areas, especially up on northern New England will see some ice out of this before a transition to rain. The best chances of freezing rain with this thing would be in eastern Vermont, interior New Hampshire and parts of northwestern Maine. In all those areas, though, freezing rain will very likely go over to plain rain. 

The storm will gather near the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday, then head northward Wednesday and Thursday toward the eastern Great Lakes, as it seems now anyway. In fact, it might be further west than the last storm. Though that's still uncertain. 

This means that areas of western New York that got plastered by heavy snow the last storm has the most uncertain forecast. It's a tossup in western New York at this point on whether they'll get a heavy, wet mostly snow storm, or rain. 

We'll want to watch for locally strong winds Wednesday night and Thursday, too. The best chance of that, and it's not a certainty, would be along the western slopes of the Green Mountains in Vermont, and possibly along the New England coast, too. 

CLIMATE NOTE: It now appears this winter is a shoo-in for the warmest winter on record in Vermont, or at least at the official National Weather Servide station in South Burlington, Vermont.

After an incredibly warm December, and a very mild January, this February needs to average just a degree above normal or a little less than that to make the winter of 2015-16 the warmest on record.

Through Saturday, February was running 4.3 degrees above normal in Burlington. Paltry cool spells Monday and Tuesday, and at the end of the upcoming week, won't erase that much at all. Then add in today's warmth and the big mild spell expected with the midweek storm, and we'll end up with a quite mild February.

There's also a slight chance Burlington might have its least snowy winter on record this year. So far, the city has had 25.9 inches of snow, less than half the normal up to this date. The least snowy year was 31.8 inches in 1912-13, so we're still almost six inches shy of that.

Usually we get quite a bit more than six inches of snow between late February and April, so chances are we won't break that 1912-13 record. But it's something to watch. There's a good chance this year will be in the Top 10 list of least snowy winters, anway. 

Back to the forecast: 

Down near the Gulf Coast, this storm Tuesday and Wednesday might cause another outbreak of severe weather, but at least at this point, I don't think it'll be as extensive in the last storm, which produced several damaging tornadoes from Louisiana to Florida. 

After this storm goes by, it'll turn colder in the Northeast, as it pretty much always does after a storm passes.

In fact, there are signs there could be a pretty intense cold wave starting in about a week or so, and then lasting a few days. Though very likely not as intense as the Valentine's weekend Arctic blast, initial signs point to the possibility another bout of subzero air in northern New England, including Vermont, to start March.

However, we WILL be getting into March, so even if temperatures recover to just normal by the second week in March, it will still feel warm-ish, like it has all winter.