Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Heavy East Coast Snowstorm Coming; Vermont One Of the Most Uncertain Spots

As I mentioned yesterday, now that the event is drawing closer, we have better data on what that storm Thursday and Friday is going to do.
Much of the Northeastern U.S. will look
something like this between Thursday and Friday.
The question is, will Vermont?  

If you live in Vermont, however, you are in the zone of the most uncertainty.

Unlike a day or two ago, we at least now know there will be a substantial nor'easter type storm on the East Coast and some areas from the Carolinas to Maine are going to get a LOT of snow.

I'd say chances are excellent if you live in New York State, especially between Albany and Westchester County, interior southern New England, a good part of New Hampshire and Maine, you're going to get at least six inches of snow out of this. Probably a foot in some areas.

If you live out in central or western New York, including the St. Lawrence Valley, chances are you won't get all that much.

That leave us with Vermont.  We do have a pretty good idea where the storm will track up along or just off the coast. But we don't know its exact track, and we probably won't know until the storm is pretty much moving through.

A variation in the track of just 50 miles will make a big difference in how much snow Vermont gets. And a 50 mile variance is miniscule when you're tracking a storm like this. There's lots of room for error.

Some computer models take the storm outside Cape Cod, which would give most of Vermont only light snow.  A few models take the storm between Boston and Cape Cod, which would put Vermont in the sweet spot for a fairly heavy snowfall.

My first guess is the southeastern third of Vermont has a very good shot at getting six inches of snow, at least.

I'm guessing, and this is just a guess, that the far northwestern part of the state will only get a couple inches.  But I'm really not sure.

I'll wait and see how future computer forecasting model runs go.

So we'll leave it at this: It'll almost definitely snow at least a little across Vermont Thursday night. It's possible the snow could come down hard, especially in the southeastern half of the state.  But no guarantees, yet, OK?

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