That Light At The End Of The Tunnel Is Warmth

Remarkably, the snow that fell Monday along Route 17 in Buels
Gore, Vermont did not melt Tuesday, despite strong May sun
It was that cold! This snow will certainly begin to melt today,
and really go on Thursday. 

Once again, in May, for the fifth day in a row, it snowed Tuesday in Vermont.

It didn't add up to much, and only a few places got it, but it DID snow again.  

I also find it remarkable that I could see snow on the ground all day pretty much to near the base of the Green Mountains, despite a fair amount of sunshine. Yesterday, was certainly another chilly day!

However, I'm happy to report that, except perhaps on the highest peaks, it won't snow again anywhere in Vermont until autumn.  

The long awaited warming trend will begin a bit today, then go full speed ahead Thursday.  The next few days starting tomorrow will really only be around normal for May, with highs mostly in the 60s and lows in the 40s, but it will still feel dreamy.

It's frosty and freezy this morning just about everywhere in Vermont, as forecast. We're still not out of the woods with those freezes and frosts. Tonight will be problematic in that regard. But we're almost there.

Today will certainly feel better than it has lately.  After the morning frost melts, temperatures will shoot up into the 50s.  That's still cool for mid-May, but plentiful sunshine and winds that will be somewhat lighter than they've been recently will make it feel warmer than it actually will be.

Those light winds and clear skies, along with very dry air, means that temperatures will plummet again tonight. A few areas will be a bit warmer than last night. A few others that had steady winds all night last night will actually be colder tomorrow morning.

But that will be it. Buh-bye, cold wave.  In Vermont's banana belts, like the Champlain Valley, it looks like tonight's risk of frost will be the last until autumn. In the Northeast Kingdom, it can frost any time of year, so I will make no such promises for that neck of the woods.

During this transition into a warmer weather pattern, we have a decent shot of some rainy spells, which is good news in northwestern Vermont in particular, which needs the rain.

There's a lot of uncertainty in the timing and strength of these showers, but they are likely, - or at least possible  - omorrow night, Friday, maybe Sunday, then Sunday night into Monday.

Chance are also increasing that a solid period of summer-like weather could hit starting the middle of next week. It's certainly possible that temperatures could reach the 80s by the end of next week.  If everything survived this morning's frost, and survives tonight, there's going to be a mad dash on trees to fully leaf out over the next week or two

INTERESTING TIDBITS

When weather patterns get interesting, that often spells trouble for us in Vermont.  This soon to be ending cold wave is one example.

Over the next several days, several interesting developments are likely to appear on the weather maps, but they will have zero, or next to zero influence on Vermont's weather.

The first interesting bit is occuring well off the Florida east coast.  An early season subtropical storm is likely to form north of the Bahamas over the next several days. Hurricane and tropical storm season starts June 1, but as has happened frequently in recent years, tropical systems have been forming before this arbitrary start to the season.

If this subtropical storm forms, they'll name it Arthur.

Wannabe Arthur won't hit the East Coast, but some signs indicate it will merge with a non-tropical storm well off the coast of New England and become a powerhouse.  That could bring an easterly fetch of chilly air to the New England coast, but that chilly air is unlikely to come as far inland as Vermont.

Worse, this pattern could bring some coastal flooding, rip currents and beach erosion to parts of the U.S East Coast.

Out in the middle of the country, after a quiet first part of May, severe weather and tornadoes seem destined to ramp up again. April was a particularly busy and deadly month for tornadoes, so the past couple of weeks has been a nice break in that department.

The threat of severe storms over the next several days doesn't appear as if it will be as intense as some of those April outbreaks, but it's still something to watch.

Finally, there's another oddly intense pool of cold air that will be building near Hudson Bay and the extreme northern tip of Quebec.  Like the last batch of frigid air, it will be rather strong for this time of year.

Very much unlike the last cold wave, there is zero chance it will come blasting down on us. Instead strong westerly winds aloft will keep that cold air a good 1,000 miles away from us, well off to our north.

But if you still haven't had enough of winter, head to Hudson Bay or the very northern tip of Quebec. Hmmm. I'm not seeing much of an exodus in that direction, am I?

Still Looking At One More Snowfall

Latest snow depth map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, Vermont. Click on it to make it bigger and
easier to see. Still a lot of snow on mountain summits Orange
and reds represent a foot or more of snow coer. 

We had snow flurries in St. Albans, Vermont,  making this the sixth consecutive day with some sort of frozen precipitation.

I wonder if that's some sort of record for April. Especially since Friday will likely be Day Number 7 as well.  

It hasn't snowed everywhere in Vermont today, but most of the state is in for another late season blast.

There will be rain mixed in with light precipitation today, but that'll change to snow tonight, even on valley floors.

Even Burlington will get into the act with a dusting to as much as two inches of snow by Friday afternoon.

Northern areas of Vermont will get anywhere from one to six nches of snow, with the highest amounts in the more elevated areas. Mountain summits like Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak have the potential to get even more than that.

Mount Mansfield already has 90 inches of snow at the summit. They could close in on 100 inches by the end of the day Friday. Quite a lot - but not a record depth for April. I think in 1996 they had something like 113 inches at the top of Mount Mansfield in April, for instance.

So yeah, get your snow brushes ready to clear your car Friday morning. Interesting, my truck needs repairs, but I can't get into a service center because everybody is switching out their winter tires, so the repair shops are booked full. Maybe the tire change outs should have waited until after Friday.

The good news for the winter weary is the meteorologist are still lock solid on a definitely warm up, along with sunshine coming up.

It'll be a slow-ish process, but we'll get there. Saturday will be the transition day after Friday's snow. Some sun will break out on Saturday, which will be nice, but there will be a cold breeze from the northwest and high temperatures will only make it into the 40s. Still much colder than normal for this time of year, but an improvement over today and Friday nonetheless.

Sunday still looks to be a bit on the cool side for this time of year, but you're going to like it anyway. Afternoon temperatures will be somewhere near 50 degrees, the sun will shine brightly and winds will be pretty light.

Monday and Tuesday -- Nirvana: Quite a bit of sun, especially on Monday with highs somewhere in the 55 to 65 degree range. It will be heaven, won't it.

Some showers could arrive Wednesday, but temperatures will remain close to normal -- temperatures well into the 50s.

There are signs some sort of nor'easter or coastal type storm could come through toward the end of next week. Don't worry, if this storm materializes, it looks almost certain that it would drop rain on us - not snow.

Somewhat Wintry, But At Least The Extreme Weather Is Gone, For Now

Just a small section of an enormous ice jam along the
Missisquoi River in Swanton, Vermont Sunday. Only
light snowfalls and moderating temperatures this week
mean the situation at least probably won't get much worse,
but rain early next week could complicate things. 

Here in Vermont and the rest of New England, we can look forward to a week that, at least, won't have super extreme weather.

Oh sure, it will be wintry, and some areas might get a moderate snowstorm, but that's par for the course for January.

The bar is set low. If we can get through a few days without something bizarre happening in the weather, we can take that as a plus.

You probably noticed you woke up to another cold morning. Most of the North Country was below zero this morning, with Saranac Lake clocking in at 24 below as of 5 a.m.

This isn't as cold as the weather we had at the beginning of the month, so take heart in that. Also, this morning is the chilliest weather you'll see in more than a week, at least, so that's good too.

An Alberta clipper type storm is heading in from the west. It's destined to cause a widespread area of snow, with ice and sleet to the south, covering an area from the Great Lakes to Texas to New England.

Few places in this vast area will get enormous accumulations, but in the South it doesn't take much to create real headaches. Winter storm watches and warnings are up for parts of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama because of this.

The clipper will weaken as it heads east, transferring its energy to a nor'easter that will develop off the Northeast Coast.

"Nor'easter" strikes fear into the hearts of some, but don't worry, this one isn't going to be the epically big "bomb cyclone" or whatever you want to call the huge type of storm that hit back on January 4.

This one will be more benign. Winter storm watches are up for far southern Vermont and much of Massachusetts because of this one late Tuesday and Wednesday and those watches might be expanded elsewhere in eastern New England.

But this will be a low-end winter storm. Right now, the most affected areas will probably get on the order of four to eight inches of powder. No big deal.

Elsewhere in Vermont, the southern and eastern half of the state could pick up a few inches of snow from this, while the northwest only gets light accumulations.

You'll notice a definite warming trend this week, too. While it's snowing off and on Tuesday and Wednesday, daytime highs will get into the comfortable mid and upper 20s, while nights only get down into the so-so teens.

It'll keep warming up, and it looks like another thaw will be here by next weekend. It won't be 60 degrees again like it was Friday. At least for Saturday and Sunday, there will be little precipitation, too, so that's good for the ice jams that are still plaguing the area.

However, forecasters are watching a storm that could hit Sunday  night and next Monday, which could bring rain. That, in turn, might aggravate any of the ice jam problems that are still lingering across the region.

It's too early to guess how much rain or other precipitation we might get, but it's something to watch out for.

Another note: While the weather won't go off the rails around here, there are some extremes of note elsewhere. One thing that caught my eye happened in Alaska Sunday. They're having a remarkably warm (for them) winter. On Sunday, a weather station in Metlakatia, Alaska, recorded a temperature of 66 degrees (above zero!) marking the hottest January temperature on record anywhere in Alaska.

The town of Sitka, Alaska, reached 62 degrees Sunday, its hottest January temperature on record. These readings were in southern Alaska. While there was no record heat in northern Alaska, the tippy top northern part of the state was still nearly 20 degrees warmer than average and toastier than Vermont was on Sunday.