Monday, July 15, 2019

Weird Backlash To Barry; Vermont To Have Miserable Week

Romance in the Louisiana flood this weekend.
Social media isn't really reality. We all know that.

Still, I'm irked by the types on Twitter and such that seem angry that Tropical Storm Barry wasn't "as bad" as a lot of forecasts.

First of all, Barry was and is pretty bad.  As of this morning, it was producing a relatively narrow, but intense rain band central Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi. This band had already produced up to 14 inches of rain and counting. Another three to eight inches of rain is expected within this band during this afternoon.

So destructive flash flooding is happening on top of the havoc Barry created this weekend.

Still, so far at least, flooding from Barry hasn't been quite as catastrophic as many people, including me, had feared. That should be a good thing. Sure, this event, like all big storms and such, are a teachable moment to help meteorologists and scientists make better predictions in the future.

There's always room for improvement. And people should ask questions if a forecast is botched. I'm not saying Barry forecasts were botched, mind you. But as usual, some areas had conditions that were different than forecast. Forecasting could have been better. Somehow.

That's one thing. Is quite another to act disappointed when a storm falls short of predictions and destruction isn't as extreme as feared. Grow up!

Barry isn't even done yet. Besides the flash flooding ongoing now, there's some risk in the Ohio Valley tomorrow. Plus, remnants of tropical storms can cause serious flooding long after they come ashore.

In 1995 for example, a lame Tropical Storm Dean came ashore in Texas on July 31. By early August, Dean's remains interacted with a stalled front in New England to cause a destructive flash flood over the northern half of Vermont.

I'm not saying history will repeat itself with Barry, but it ain't over 'til it's over. Speaking of which:

VERMONT FACES MISERABLE SUMMER WEEK

Great, low humidity conditions at a garden party at my St. Albans,
Vermont house Sunday. Big time humidity will come back
later this week, though.
Enjoy today, my Vermont friends,because the weather is going to turn just awful for the rest of the week. Unless you like stifling humidity, rain and the possibility of local flooding and severe weather.

Sunday gave us a welcome break from warmth and humidity. Thank goodness, because we had a big outdoor party at my place in St. Albans, Vermont and everybody was comfortable and happy.

It was in the cool 50s for most of us early this morning, and temperatures will get iinto the low 80s with low humidity this afternoon.

Then the humidity starts to skyrocket tomorrow. By Wednesday and Thursday, the remains of Barry will push in wicked high humidity. Plus, daytime highs will be in the mid-80s with lows near 70. Which is terrible sleeping weather.

There will also be fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Because of all the moisture around, the rain could be locally heavy.  Though at this point I don't expect any widespread flash flooding, local problems could easily happen.

The soil in Vermont currently isn't particularly wet, but if there's a tremendous amount of rain in a short period of time, you can still get in trouble.

It's looking as if the heat will get even worse Friday and Saturday. It'll stay just as humid, but temperatures could go into the 90s, especially if it's not very cloudy.

There will be some weak fronts and stalled boundaries hanging around Friday and Saturday. When it's that hot and humid the atmosphere is spring-loaded to set off some severe thunderstorms. All you need is a trigger. It's possible those little fronts and boundaries could set things off.

Yeah, not a good week, but it's summer, so what the heck.


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