More Storms, Some Maybe Strong, Developing In Northeast, Including Vermont

The first thunderstorm of the day is seen here weakening east of
St. Albans, Vermont shortly after noon today after dumping a
brief downpour on Georgia, Vermont. Stronger storms, a few
possibly severe, are possible later this afternoon. 

It's a little before 1 p.m. Tuesday afternoon here in Vermont, and I could just change a word or two and begin this post the way I began it Sunday.

Which was like this: "As of a little before 1 p.m. this humid Sunday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were rapidly firing in much of Vermont and northern New York."

Just change "Sunday" to "Tuesday" and away we go.

Of course, there are differences.  The storms are actually less widespread than they were at this time Sunday, as the peak conditions for the storms are coming a little later than they did Sunday.  They will become much more numerous soon.

More importantly, there is a somewhat greater risk of some scattered severe storms than there was on Sunday, when only a couple locations in Vermont experienced a little damage.

Both on Sunday and this morning, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had Vermont and surrounding areas under a marginal risk zone for severe storms. That would mean isolated severe storms that don't last long, cover very few areas and are barely severe.

Before noon, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded us, if you will, to a slight risk zone. That means scattered severe storms, a bit more numerous than under a marginal risk, and there is a chance of an isolated really intense storm.

As of noon, the Storm Prediction Center said they will fairly likely issue a severe thunderstorm watch in a band through central Pennsylvania, central and northeastern New York, and the northwestern half of Vermont.

Like on Sunday, we've gotten quite a bit of sun, which has helped heat and destabilize the air, making us ripe for storms. (It was already 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont as of 1 p.m.)

Unlike Sunday, there's a bit more wind shear in the atmosphere. That means winds are changing speed and direction with height over us, which helps power the storms.

The best chances for strong to severe storms this afternoon and early evening are over northern New York and in Vermont west of the Green Mountains and north of Rutland.

The first storms to form late this morning over northern New York faded as they moved into Vermont, but the upper level dynamics to support subsequent storms is sneaking into northwest Vermont, so I don't think some of the storms will weaken much before reaching New Hampshire.

The biggest threat - other than the obvious lightning and downpours - from today's storms are local strong, damaging winds, possibly going to 60 mph or even a little higher.

Most of us won't experience such mayhem. But a few places in northern New York and Vermont probably will.  It's probably best to postpone that lake boat ride or that long hike through the woods for another day. It's supposed to be nice on Thursday!

Sunday's storms made for highly variable rainfall totals across Vermont. A few places got nothing, a few others got more than 1.5 inches. Town A got soaked, and Town B three miles down the road stayed dusty.

It'll be like that today, too. Although some of the peak rainfall totals will be higher than Sunday's. The storms will have a bit more organization than they did Sunday, which could produce bigger, heavier areas of rain.  Many of us could still use the rain, so that's OK.

However there is also a bit of the risk of those dreaded training thunderstorms. That's when storms line up like boxcars on a railroad track, so several storms end up going over the same spot. That can lead to local flash flooding, even it it has been dry up until now. A few inches of rain in a couple hours can create high water, no matter how dusty it was before the storms arrived.

The storms will peter out pretty quickly after sunset this evening, but there's still a chance of some showers and maybe a rumble of thunder all night as a cold front approaches.

More humid weather with showers and storms will come Wednesday as the front limps through. Chances of severe weather will be further east, more likely in southern and eastern New England than in Vermont or New York.